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On January 28th, 2024, a drone strike was carried out by an Iran-backed militia. The target was a logistics outpost in northeast Jordan called Tower 22. Several U.S. service members were deployed there at the time, working alongside local Syrians to fight against remnants of the Islamic State.
For over half a century, the United States’ primary nuclear enemy has been Russia, with 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads being possessed between the two countries as a result of their hostility towards one another. However, with changes in the current geopolitical landscape, countries whose capabilities may have been overlooked in the past are now rising to the nuclear stage with enough momentum to prompt US attention – these countries being China, North Korea, and Iran.
National Security Implications in the Era of Social Media
Just three weeks ago, a Chinese Coast Guard ship purposely rammed a Filipino vessel on the open ocean just 100 nautical miles off the coast of the Philippines. The incident marked the first time in recent years that a Chinese Coast Guard ship had done physical damage to a foreign nation's ship. For years, the Chinese Coast Guard and civilian Chinese naval militias have harassed and effectively blockaded Filipino ships from accessing this area of the South China Sea in an attempt to assert control over the area. The incident is one of many occurrences that demonstrate a pattern of belligerent behavior by the Chinese military. Such a pattern proves the need for the United States and its allies to maintain and reinforce its commitment to territorial sovereignty as defined by international law by strengthening alliances and presence in the region.
After years of tensions, on March 10th, 2023, Riyadh and Tehran, with China acting as host and facilitator, agreed to reopen diplomatic relations. China also offered a 12-point proposal to Kyiv and Moscow on the first anniversary of the invasion, meant to end the war in Ukraine. Beijing’s attempts to act as a peace facilitator demonstrate the Chinese Communist Party’s aims to shape a Chinese-centric future. These deals, particularly regarding Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and China, can be read as indicators of a global shift towards a more bipolar order intent on challenging the West.
The anniversary of the Ukraine-Russia war stormed social media in February, as the month of “love” ended; however, as the third month of 2023 approached, United State’s national security erupted with a new “mysterious” white balloon flying across North America.
Recently, Xi Jinping, the leader of China, and Vladimir Putin, leader of Russia, met at the Kremlin in Russia to participate in talks of their strategic vision for the future. This visit comes amid the still ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and raises eyebrows for state leaders around the world watching closely as relationships between China and Russia grow tighter. The meeting was advertised as a way for the “self-described friends” to show their personal support for each other.
As of 2022, the United States was producing approximately 1% of the world’s lithium, all of which comes from Albemarle’s Silver Peak in Nevada. There are no other functioning lithium mines in the country. Despite other potential mining sites in the United States being considered and developed, the US is producing only 1/75th of their projected lithium demand in future years. Because of this, the US is considering mining and purchasing lithium from outside the US.
Although first becoming active years before Russia’s “special military operation”, Wagner Group, the private military contractor and parastatal arm of the Russian military has become increasingly visible since the invasion of Ukraine. The PMC is a convenient asset for the Kremlin, however recent critical comments made by Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin about top Russian military leadership indicate developing growing pains in the relationship between the Russian government and Wagner Group.
Newly elected Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed al-Sudani, recently spoke out in an interview expressing support for U.S. military presence and training in Iraq. This statement holds both disillusion and relief for the United States, due to a history of tension between the two countries.
As the world approaches the one year anniversary of the Ukraine and Russian War, Russia is indicating they have no intention to step back any time soon. In light of the extensive sanctions against Russian interests, people, and their ability to conduct international banking, President Vladimir V. Putin has linked Russia’s banking system to the same banking institutions as Iran.
A number of updates in Cuba-US relations emerged as 2023 began. While contention and long-standing ideological differences remain, it appears that the developments in relations between the countries are signs of improvement.
On December 13-15, 2022, the White House hosted forty-nine leaders from across the African continent to the second U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit. This historic event has only happened once before, in 2014 with former President Barack Obama. The purpose of the summit was several fold: to build trust with the many countries of the African continent, advance the interests of the African Union, to foster new economic activities, and more. This summit is seen as an important step in building better relationships with “a new, more prosperous Africa”, as President Obama said during the first summit. This year’s summit is especially important as it comes amid economic hardship across the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and a debt crisis for many African countries.
On November 24th 2022 in Urumqi, China, there was a fire that broke out in a residential building that resulted in a total of 10 deaths, many of whom were children. The fire took place in an area that was sanctioned off in quarantine due to the Zero COVID health policy that Xi Jinping has established over China, with regulations and restrictions placed on the building. The firemen that were called onto the site were unable to get into the building to save them due to the many lackdown measures that were in place in the building, which ultimately resulted in many avoidable deaths. This incident resulted in an uprising by the Chinese citizens, with many protests and candlelight vigils held all around China.
Cyber-attacks on critical U.S. infrastructure pose a tremendous threat to the American population and government. For years, the threat has grown in the form of state-sponsored cyber attackers and threats via data mining and malware coming through applications and social media. The current United States infrastructure is not sufficiently prepared or resilient to withstand attacks that can cause damage to critical segments of the medical, financial, power, and governmental sectors. Experts suggest that radical updates to infrastructure and improved security practices are required to prepare adequately for state-sponsored attacks or undermining from near-peer rivals.
The United States has recently renewed its goals to reduce carbon emissions and move towards reliance on renewable energy sources such as solar plants, electric vehicles, and wind farms. This transition from the traditional use of fossil-fuels to renewables for energy production requires an extraordinary amount of mineral extraction. The location of such minerals is condensed in few areas throughout the globe, such as China, Australia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The extraction and refining processes of such minerals is currently dominated by China and Chinese firms. Sourcing of minerals in volatile regions also threatens the reliability of access to those necessary for energy production, whether it be due to civil unrest or climate risks. Relying on Chinese mineral production limits the bargaining power of the United States as it becomes increasingly reliant on these energy sources.
With the new year quickly approaching, it is almost time for Brazil’s president-elect Luiz Inacio da Silva to take office. In October 2022, president elect Luiz Inacio da Silva, popularly known as “Lula” was announced the winner of Brazil’s 2022 presidential elections. With his victory, there is much to consider for the direction of Brazil’s foreign and domestic policy, as well as what this election means for U.S. Foreign Policy.
U.S. gas prices soared in June of this year to an all-time high of $4.99 per gallon –– a 47% increase from prices at the start of 2022. In response to this raging inflation, President Biden traveled to Saudi Arabia in July, with part of the agenda set to discuss boosting oil production with Saudi OPEC leaders. His proposal was rejected and OPEC retained plans to cut oil production, which will drive up global energy prices further. These cuts have yet to be implemented. At the G20 summit in Egypt this November, world leaders acknowledged Western sanctions against Russia and resultantly high inflation rates that have driven up energy prices worldwide. Despite the energy crisis, G20 leaders reaffirmed their commitments to the Paris Agreement and worldwide efforts toward a clean energy transition.
On November 14, 2022, Premier Xi and President Joe Biden attended a meeting–held in Bali, Indonesia–to discuss conflicting issues concerning both countries’ foreign policy. This interaction between China and the United States was an exceptional opportunity to mend the relationship between the two global powerhouses. Political scientists foresee China rising in financial and global influence over the next three decades, surpassing the United States as the hegemon and sponsor of pax americana around the world.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a political minefield and the United States has placed itself right in the middle of it. U.S. diplomatic ties and historical sympathies for Israel have repeatedly antagonized Palestine, and by extension the entirety of the Arab world. The Palestinian question is one of many issues that drive a stake between the U.S. and its Arab allies, although the issue of Palestine has potent nationalistic implications for Arab countries. This in combination with other points of conflict with the Middle East threaten U.S. access to important resources like oil with larger implications for greater global security.
Currency is central to international relations. Exchange rates determine how economies are stacked against each other and allow international public and private business. In the post-pandemic world and world economy, many are struggling to recover from lockdowns and slow business. In addition, the war against Ukraine has limited gas and energy access. All of this contributes to a new trend, where the US Dollar is once again leading the world while the Euro and British Pound have fallen behind. While strength abroad ensures American relevance and economic stability, it comes with consequences for ordinary domestic consumers.
The United States attends National Dialogues, often referred to as just simply dialogues, with foreign nations to discuss the terms of foreign relations between the two countries. Normally, these dialogues happen annually as a one-on-one between the United States and the other country, however, the most recent dialogues have been postponed one year due to COVID-19. The overarching purpose of these dialogues are to assess the past of the countries’ relationship, and evaluate and organize the future of the relationship and how they can improve moving forward. On September 12th, 2022, the Vietnam-United States Defense Policy Dialogue was held in Hanoi, Vietnam.
The effects of Putin’s use of strategic conservatism are already widespread. The consequences surmounted precedent as he won the support of Patriarch Kirill. When a specific religion is attached to a national identity, the leaders of the nation take on leadership of said religion. This has led figures such as Pope Francis to condemn the association by warning Kirill against being Putin’s, “altar boy”. However, as a leader of hundreds of thousands, such reprimands and sanctions against Kirill must be approached carefully. As it was during the Cold War in the fight against communism, America seems to have found itself in a battle against ideology.
In recent weeks, the war in Ukraine has seen major successes and failures on both sides. Advances have been made for the Ukrainian troops but Russia has found more pressure points to push, creating more economic unrest for the West. This conflict, only expected to last a few weeks, has turned into more than six months of intense battles and humanitarian disasters. Although physically it only affects portions of Ukraine’s population, its indirect consequences have extended much farther than eastern Europe. Russia has positioned itself directly against the entirety of the EU and the UN. These western powers have been heavily involved from the start, several rounds of sanctions have already been put into effect. However, their dogmatic approach to dealing with Russia is about to be tested in the coming winter. The U.S. has given lots of support in this conflict in the form of military aid and money, almost three billion dollars since the beginning of the Biden administration, but the consequences have been felt in the economy. A potential indicator for U.S. markets in the coming season may be Russia’s efforts to limit its oil and gas exports and increase energy costs for Ukraine. These next few months will prove to be critical in the outcome of the war and Russia’s future as a European nation.
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, the conflict has only escalated with thousands of lives being lost to the violence. The shock of this conflict has reverberated around the world, with many countries still unsure of the best course of action to take. One thing is for certain: as the war continues, the use of nuclear weaponry becomes a bigger possibility. As one of the only superpowers in the world, the United States is faced with their own security concerns about the continued conflict in Ukraine.
In summary, Xi Jinping’s address to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party reinforced Chinese ambitions to replace the United States as a global superpower. Xi Jinping’s remarks present possible national security risks through escalatory language towards Taiwan, expansion of the Belt and Road initiative, and extensive technological advancements.
The United States now faces an increasing strain on its reserve supply of armaments due to the war in Ukraine. Since the conflict began, the United States has sent over $17.5 billion USD in military aid. These packages have included everything from radar and stinger anti-aircraft rocket launchers to cold weather gear and body armor. As the spending for Ukraine increases, predictions indicate that reserves of certain weapons systems and munitions will soon be depleted to sub-optimal levels required for the United States to effectively respond to a direct conflict. Current supply levels remain adequate for certain armaments; however, this issue will be compounded by the slow adjustment of manufacturing to replenish weapon stocks.
In a New York Times video analysis conducted by Muyi Xiao about the Chinese surveillance systems, they portray a higher amount of security precautions in the Xinjiang province, where the majority population is Uyghur. This poses many questions about the true motivation behind the Chinese security systems, and what purposes they are truly serving. The Chinese government has affirmed that the sole reason for these systems is to prevent crime. In reports obtained from the Chinese government, there are propositions of reaching a level of security that would be able to predict and prevent future crimes before they happened, before the crime was committed. Although this idea has yet to be confirmed of being realized, the prospect of the possibility is important to remember.
In the first days of October, the Biden Administration completed the exchange of prisoners between the Venezuelan government and the United States consisting of seven US Citizens detained under Venezuelan federal laws and two Venezuelan citizens, nephews of the Venezuelan leader.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dragged on far beyond the timeline projected by political scientists, but it may be drawing to a close. What that end might be is yet to be seen, but there are fewer and fewer ways out of this conflict as Russia commits more and more resources and troops to the ‘special military exercise’ that has resulted in at least 10,000 casualties and many more missing, as well as over 10% of the population of Ukraine currently displaced. With American troops part of the forward placement on the East of the NATO Alliance and nuclear threats renewed, Putin may soon force American intervention.
The persecution of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar burgeoned into genocide in 2017 and has since then expanded into a full-blown humanitarian crisis in Bangladesh. This crisis is characterized by the approximately one million refugees who fled Myanmar to Bangladesh during the last five years. These refugees face internal conflict a lack of resources in an already poverty-stricken area. The political situation in Myanmar also remains dire as the government fails to address military corruption, violence, and human rights violations toward both the Rohingya and other ethnic groups within the country. These humanitarian and political crises threaten the stability of southeast Asia, the checks and balances on Chinese power, and human rights around the globe, and thereby impact United States interests and security.
Since February, global attention has continued to concentrate on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its rippling impact, extending beyond its interference in the global supply chain or impulsion of refugees within Europe to the tensions in Eastern Asia between China (PRC) and Taiwan (ROC).
On September 8, 2022, after 70 years on the throne, Queen Elizabeth passed away. Queen Elizabeth was the longest reigning monarch in British history, with her death marking the end of an era. She had been queen since 1952, after the passing of her father, King George VI. Her legacy includes working with fifteen prime ministers, the first dating all the way back to Winston Churchill. She is known for playing an active role in government and foreign affairs beyond her duties as the symbolic head of state.
One year ago, the United States ended its longest war in Afghanistan. It was the end because the US pulled all military (and many other) personnel from the country. Following the US action, the Taliban quickly took control of the country. The speed of this takeover was surprising to the world.
The United States faces new difficulties to a clear terrorism policy. As it no longer has a physical presence in Afghanistan and seeks to continuously curb the influence of terror groups in the Middle East, the United States has utilized over-the-horizon drone strikes against terror leaders. This strategy had particular attention in the Trump and Biden administrations with drone strikes against Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, respectively. Although over-the-horizon strikes provide a relatively simple alternative to on-the-ground forces, the problems raised by their extensive intelligence requirements and implications for U.S. involvement outside warzones makes this policy unsustainable. This article is meant to analyze both the history and probability of its implementation. Though over-the-horizon strikes can include the use of special forces groups, this definition will focus strictly on drone strikes.
Every year since 1975, a world economic summit has been held to discuss and brainstorm the current challenges facing the world. It has evolved since then into what we know today as the G7. There are seven member nations who make up this council including the United States and the current Presiding nation of Germany. The 26th of this month will mark the beginning of a new summit meeting in the Bavarian Alps with the massive backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Although it does not wield the policy making power like the EU or the UN, the G7 will play a huge role in setting the tone for the remainder of the war. Ministers from other countries and representatives from the EU have been invited to take part in the summit as well. Since Russia began sending troops to the Ukrainian border, many emergency meetings have been convened in response to the Russian act of aggression on Ukraine. This will add to the buildup of this year’s G7 summit which will like showcase severe punishments and a doubling down of its strict behavior towards Russia.
In 1986, Ferdinand Marcos, former president of the Philippines, was ousted from power. Now, nearly 40 years later, the Marcos family is returning to power as Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is declared the winner of the recent Philippines Presidential Election. For many, this is an alarming event, as citizens reflect back on the last Marcos regime and what it did to their country. Former President Marcos was ousted from power because of his dictatorial leadership and for his imposition of martial law towards the end of his presidency. With this legacy, many wonder what it means for the Philippines as Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. prepares to step into the role of President of the Philippines. In his campaign, Marcos Jr. asked for all to “judge me not by my ancestors, but by my actions”. What will his actions be and what will they do to the Philippines’ democracy? Furthermore, what does this new presidency mean for U.S. foreign policy, especially as tensions with China continue to heighten?
Hamas is an Islamist militant group in the Gaza strip, which is also known as Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya (Islamic Resistance Movement). Hamas is a Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States Government and many other countries due to its armed resistance against Israel.
The other day one of my friends looked over my shoulder and saw the name “Burkina Faso.” She politely asked me what this “Burkina Faso” was. For those who find themselves in a similar situation: stay tuned. Burkina Faso is a landlocked country in West Africa near Mali, Niger, Togo, Ghana, and Ivory Coast. It is categorized as a Least Developed Country (LDC), and in recent years, this small country has affected the seething in West Africa.
A hunger crisis now faces the people of Afghanistan, and the United States holds the key to a significant part of resource flow into the country. As the Taliban implement their authoritarian control of the country, human rights abuses have become more widespread and a hunger crisis risks putting millions into famine condition. The United States may be able to leverage access to much need food and medical supplies to ensure that the Taliban do not revert to their horrific rule of the 1990’s.
Libya’s parliamentary committee has postponed the long-awaited Libyan presidential elections. The elections were intended to take place on December 24th, 2021, but were postponed two days prior. A new election date has yet to be set. Entities both within and outside of Libya disagree about Libya’s priorities as it seeks to establish a stable democracy in the wake of two civil wars. This poses important implications for the United States as it tries to encourage democracy in Libya, establish a strategic and friendly partnership with oil-rich Libya, and predict who will come to power once elections are held.
Russia aims to resurrect its geopolitical dominance by amassing troops on the Ukrainian border. Conflict began in 2014 when street protests in Ukraine overthrew Russian-supported President Victor Yanukovych. In retaliation, Russia annexed Crimea sparking violence in eastern Ukraine. Since 2014 Russia has made substantial advances culminating with 175,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. Intelligence reports vary on the exact military capabilities of Russian forces, but unanimously agree that they are sufficient to overpower the Ukrainian military. Reports from intelligence sources indicate increased Russian propaganda in Ukraine, attempting to convince Ukrainians that Russia will benevolently liberate them from their western-controlled leaders. Intelligence officials urge Ukraine to strategically resist Russian aggression, abstaining from provocative actions that Russia could misinterpret for grounds of invasion.
Turkey occupies a highly influential role in multiple regional conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Near East. Each of which have potential to create issues for committed U.S. interests in the region. But Turkish cooperation is far from guaranteed, and in some areas, it is instigating these tensions. The United States must carefully factor in Turkey’s internal and external situations as it attempts to navigate situations with Ukraine, Syria, and even the E.U. 's plans for defense, and yet Turkey has proven difficult to rely on in cooperating with any of these interests. The most likely points of direct conflict remain northern Syria and the Black Sea.
Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader, has essentially threatened secession with his statements on October 8th that the Serb Republic will remove itself from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s armed forces, top judiciary body, and tax administration. Dodik has also said that the Serb Republic will recreate its army in the process. Dodik’s announcements violate the U.S.-led Dayton Accords, which ended the Bosnian War in 1995 and stipulated that the once warring groups would be one sovereign country.
In the aftermath of the 2020 global pandemic, inflation has swept across economies worldwide. While economists expected the consumer price index in the United States to rise 5.9% in the past year, it has instead risen 6.2%. This rapid rise in rates is creating a notable impact on food prices. High prices are affecting market sales and charity operations. Responses to the market inflation may either alleviate or aggravate long-term effects on the post-pandemic economy.
In July of this year, the Orbán administration banned LGBTQ content from appearing in school materials or television shows for people under 18. This policy caused a huge uproar in many European Union countries, which see this policy as homophobic. This LGBTQ discriminatory policy does not support the Biden Administration view nor American values of preventing discrimination based on gender identity or sexual orientation.
Underdevelopment dominates the Middle East and North African region. In 2020, the gravest issues faced by the MENA region were conflicts over water and poor water infrastructure.
Various Latin American countries demonstrate a willingness to participate with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This willingness is concerning to the United States, as the BRI increases the ability of the Chinese government to project power onto the American continents. This article analyzes the options available to the United States and Western countries to counter the BRI in Latin America.
This November will mark the first anniversary of the Tigray and Ethiopian conflict, a conflict that questions the power of leaders, the value of stability, and the role of the international community in such affairs.
DECISION MEMORANDUM
With an export value of 33.7 billion U.S. dollars in crude oil to China alone in 2019, the Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil trade. However, due to the increase in the overall Russian climate, the oil industry is experiencing complications. As one of the primary sources of income for Russia’s economy, its government has made and will continue to make significant efforts to curb the effects of the complications and prevent future problems. The increase in climate temperature has damaged the infrastructure of the mines and plants responsible for oil production, creating a need for a redirection of funds and potentially dangerous environmental effects, thus, narrating a cautionary tale to other nations with similar carbon emissions rates.
On September 5th military leader Doumbouya blocked off roads and took the capital by force. He removed President Conde as President. U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price opposed the rise to power of Doumbouya and the military. Additionally, the UN states call for the release of the president from the custody emplaced by Doumbouya.
At the present moment, Cuba does not represent any foreign policy focus for the Biden administration. Whether or not it should become a priority is unimportant; Cuba currently represents an opportunity for the United States to demonstrate to the rest of the world that it can harness soft power in situations where military force is impractical or unnecessary.
The intelligence community warns the coronavirus pandemic damages the world in political, economic, and health aspects. Instability is worsening, and world powers seek advantage from the pandemic instead of cooperation. After assuming a premature victory over the coronavirus and lifting restrictions earlier this year, India experienced a deadly second wave of the virus starting in mid-March. As of September 24th, India has had over 33,500,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, with nearly 450,000 coronavirus-related deaths. Although India has now overcome this second wave thanks to the greater availability of vaccines and aid, only 16% of the Indian population is fully vaccinated as of September 23rd. In addition, the coronavirus has exacerbated pre-existing economic and political issues that could pose a graver threat to the Indian economy and democratic stability than the pandemic itself if the state cannot recover soon.
The newly elected president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, is the first hard-line conservative to take office since the administration of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–13). With Raisi as president, hard-line conservatives control each branch of the Iranian government - conservatives closely aligned with supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Hard-line conservative dominance of the government will likely mean that the negotiations with the United States, focused on a return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, will become much more difficult. Iranian backing of regional militias, which have been problematic to United States interests, will almost certainly continue. Negotiations regarding the Iranian ballistic missile program will almost certainly not happen. Most importantly, regional disputes will likely become more contentious under a hardliner-controlled Iran.
The Taliban remains a threat to the stability and continual development of a democratic government in Afghanistan. A lack of an American military presence will likely encourage the Taliban to expand their power. Aggression against Afghans has increased dramatically since the start of this year. If the Taliban were to gain control, the country could become a renewed haven for terrorist groups and threats to the United States.
Moving forward, the United States may stabilize regional power in the American continent by removing a critical Russian ally, Venezuela. Nicolas Maduro, the controversial, authoritarian president of Venezuela, is backed by the Russian government and continues an anti-American narrative beneficial to Russian interests in the American hemisphere. If the United States can challenge the relationship between Russia and Venezuela by becoming Venezuela’s ally, the United States could directly contest Russian interests in the American hemisphere.
In 2020 and into early 2021, the military forces of the Republic of India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) clashed multiple times in hand-to-hand combat in northwest India along the nuclear-armed neighbors’ 3,500 kilometer-long disputed border—resulting in their deadliest skirmish in 45 years. Given the tension between these two global powers, the United States is seeking to strengthen defensive ties with the Republic of India to signal its commitment to defending the world’s largest democracy.
Recent Russian cyber-attacks on public and private U.S. sectors have put cyber security into the forefront of American thought and public concern. While cyber-attacks are aimed hourly at countries, companies, and individuals, accusations of cyber-attacks between the United States and Russia have created a digital Cold War in a race to see who can exploit the most vulnerabilities in the infrastructure and supply chains of the opposing power.
At the beginning of 2020, the United States watched the Kingdom of Thailand experience unprecedented calls for reform of the Thai monarchy. The turmoil in the country prompted the United States to determine how they would both support the human rights of the citizens while also maintaining interests with the current Thai government. Protests in Bangkok against the royal family, specifically King Vajiralongkorn, have been spearheaded by the upcoming generation of Thai young adults. The protesters consistently demand the dissolution of parliament, an end to the intimidation of the people, and a new constitution. In other words, the protesters of the monarchy in Thailand are pro-democracy. Despite the continuation of the protests, the demands seem to be falling on deaf ears. The monarchy has not directly acknowledged these demands from the protesters. Instead, they have sent the military to take back the streets with riot shields, rubber bullets, and water cannons. These protests are taking place mainly in Bangkok around the different college campuses and government monuments. The Royalists, for their part, have not been passively watching on the sidelines during these protests.
Monthly Archives: April 2021
April 3, 2021, brought shocking news of the arrest of top Jordanian officials for “security reasons,” including former finance minister Bassam Awadallah and Prince Hassan bin Zaid. Prince Hamzeh, son of the late King Hussein’s fourth wife and half-brother of current King Abdullah II, was also placed under house arrest, allegedly for “actions targeting Jordan’s security.” Jordan’s government quickly called it an attempted coup, backed by unspecified “foreign entities” threatening to destabilize the kingdom.
Monthly Archives: March 2021
On the morning of February 1st, 2021, the military of Myanmar seized control of the government after the general election in which Aung San Suu Kyi, the current head of the government, and the National League for Democracy (NDL) party won by a landslide. The military is now currently in charge and has declared a year-long state of emergency. The military had backed the opposition in the election, who were demanding a rerun of the vote, claiming widespread fraud. The election commission of Myanmar said there was no evidence to support these claims of voter fraud. The coup was staged shortly after as a new session of parliament was set to open. Ms. Suu Kyi is currently under house arrest and has been charged with possessing illegally imported walkie-talkies. Many other NLD officials have also been detained. Power has been handed over to commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing, who has overseen the military of Myanmar for many years now and has declared that the country will have a “free and fair” election after the state of emergency is over.
Monthly Archives: January 2021
In November, Chinese media revealed shocking images of a new village built inside an area that has been disputed by China and Bhutan for decades. All this despite recent statements by Lotay Tsering, the prime minister of Bhutan, saying that negotiations over the Bhutan-China border had been progressing well. The Chinese village, Pangda, had been built in a short period and already had residents living in it by the time Bhutan discovered it.
Monthly Archives: January 2021
The Abraham Accords are a groundbreaking step in warming Arab relations with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu went as far as to describe it as, “a pivot of history. It heralds a new dawn of peace.” It was a significant policy switch for the United Arab Emirates. The Arab world had long refused to make any formal relations with Israel as part of the Khartoum Resolution in 1967, agreeing to have no peace, no negotiations, and no recognition of Israel until the Palestinian conflict was resolved. If anything, the conflict has only gotten worse from a Palestinian perspective, so why the change in policy from the UAE? The Gulf nations have a lot to gain from exchanging technology, trade, and tourism with Israel, but the military tensions and the shifting power struggle in the region are the main motivating forces of the agreement. This does mean that the United States can continue to soften its military presence in the Middle East, and work with Arab countries as partners against rival influences rather than as the sole protector of the region.
Monthly Archives: December 2020
The killing of the Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was the latest event to escalate tensions in the Middle East between the US and Israel, and Iran. The head of the Iranian nuclear program was killed in his car in an ambush supposedly done by satellite-controlled machine guns near the Iranian capital, Tehran. The killing has naturally attracted widespread outcry from the international community. The European Union condemned it as a “criminal act” against human rights, and they and many other countries call for restraint.
Monthly Archives: December 2020
Since its independence from the United Kingdom in 1965, other countries have known the Republic of Maldives mostly as a honeymoon destination for Bollywood actors. However, the archipelago is now seeing renewed attention for a more strategic purpose. The sea surrounding the islands is the Laccadive Sea, which connects Maldives, India, and Sri Lanka. The Laccadive Sea has stable waters throughout the whole year, which makes it ideal for a naval base, something the United States might try to establish in the coming years, given its activity in base-building in other parts of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Monthly Archives: October 2020
Behind green barbed-wire fences sit rows of men and rows of women, segregated by gender. They have been stripped of any religious clothing and instead wear royal blue jumpsuits. Behind these fences, Uyghur Muslims go to have “their thoughts transformed.” China claims these camps are necessary for preventing future acts of terrorism perpetrated by Muslim extremists. The country has built more of these camps at an alarming rate, all the while claiming that it is scaling back re-education efforts. These actions have brought the condemnation of some countries in the United Nations, as well as the United States. Attempts at further “re-education” will likely increasingly be met by more aggressive economic sanctions because detention camps violate international law and China’s promised obligation to protect human rights.
Monthly Archives: September 2020
The People’s Republic of China has been recruiting retired intelligence officers to leak classified information to the Chinese government. In just the latest part of uncovering this trend, the United States arrested Alexander Yuk Ching Ma, a former CIA officer, on August 14, 2020. In response to the incident, Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers commented, “The trail of Chinese espionage is long and, sadly, strewn with former American intelligence officers who betrayed their colleagues, their country and its liberal democratic values to support an authoritarian communist regime.” Chinese intelligence has been using a combination of traditional espionage techniques, artificial intelligence, and misinformation to achieve its recruiting and espionage goals. The Chinese government has had clear successes in hiring spies from within the United States, and if this trend continues, it will undermine American intelligence and national security aims.
Monthly Archives: August 2020
Filipino policy has changed drastically in the last few years, with ramifications for Southeast Asian geopolitics. President Rodrigo Duterte has launched a campaign to break up “oligarchies” in the Philippines’ economy, stripped journalists critical of his policies of their licensing, and conceded to Chinese claims in the South China Sea. Duterte’s critics worry that if he isolates himself and the Philippines from the United States and traditional allies too much, China will replace them.
Monthly Archives: August 2020
Russians went to the polls July 1st to vote on a referendum that will make sweeping changes to their constitution, most notably greatly expanding President Vladimir Putin’s federal power and extending his potential presidency to the year 2036.
In the past five years China has become increasingly aggressive about asserting their authority over greater and greater swathes of the South China Sea through the creation and militarization of artificial islands. One aspect of this expansion that has drawn considerable ire from the US is the movement and subsequent testing of anti-ship cruise missiles to advance positions in the South China Sea in July of 2019. This movement of missiles is the pinnacle of a vast effort by the Chinese to project power into the South China Sea and deter the powerful US presence in the region.
In the wake of the 2014 Euromaidan uprisings in Ukraine, comedian and actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy created, produced, and starred in “Servant of the People”, a TV series about an unknown history teacher winning the presidential elections. The show is a satirical take on the corruption and inefficiency in Ukrainian politics and struck a chord with Ukrainians at a politically fraught moment in which the country found itself at a crossroads between Russia and the West. Zelenskiy’s character was portrayed as a virtuous public servant who railed against the corruption that had hampered the nation.
Monthly Archives: June 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has infected over two and a half million people, with numbers quickly rising each day. Impacting the respiratory functions of the body, this virus ravages the elderly and those with underlying health conditions such as asthma and diabetes. Since its spread began in December of 2019, millions of people world-wide have quarantined, billions of dollars in business have been lost, and consumers have been directed or forced to stay home. In the U.S. alone, more than twenty-two million people have applied for unemployment, and there are estimates that the unemployment rate could hover around twenty percent for a few quarters. The true impact will remain unknown until the virus has completely run its course. With countries at their tipping point, the U.S. must consider the change of course the virus is taking and the new policies required to combat it.
The UAE’s primary goals in its relations with Iran are to avoid conflict and prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Recently, the UAE has pursued these goals through a warming of relations with Iran. Traditionally however, the UAE pursued those goals by joining the Saudi-U.S.-led pressure campaign on Iran. Most notably, the UAE provided funds, air support, and thousands of troops to fight the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The UAE also ardently supported the U.S. in its campaign to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and welcomed Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in favor of a more aggressive approach.
For decades, Northeastern India has faced relentless violence from rebel groups seeking autonomy from the Indian government. Militant groups started with India’s independence in 1947, when they felt like their voices weren’t heard by the government, “Militants in India’s northeast once enjoyed vast popular support since they, in their formative years, voiced genuine grievances of the people such as poor governance, alienation, lack of development and an apathetic attitude from the central government in New Delhi.” Now that they don’t have sway with the government, they make themselves heard through militant acts including bombings and shootings.
The coronavirus has caused widespread panic throughout the world and bears strong resemblance to the SARS outbreak of 2003. While the SARS virus caused an estimated $40 billion economic loss, the coronavirus has the potential to cause much more damage as China has become more integrated into the global economy (1). While China has enforced many policies in an attempt to curb the spread of the virus, the virus has caused extensive economic damage in China that will spread to the global economy.
Monthly Archives: February 2020
For the past few decades, Iran and the United States have been locked in a political dance in which both states attempted to control the domestic, regional, and international politics of the Middle East. From the US using its allies to implement strong-arm tactics, like sanctions against Iran, to Iran inciting anti-American riots in Baghdad, to both states backing opposite sides in war-torn countries such as Syria and Yemen, the two countries have favored using other nations to further their interests instead of using direct force against each other. However, the recent assassination of the powerful Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and his entourage in Iraq by the US military has moved this decades-long conflict between the two states from a proxy war into a new stage of outright aggression.
Monthly Archives: January 2020
DF-26’s Threat and Capabilities
Monthly Archives: December 2019
“Aside from a small number of low-level plots either thwarted or failed, there have not been any successful terrorist attacks on Italian soil since 9/11, a trend that has remained true since the rise of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in 2014” (Vidino 2017). Why is this the case? Why has Italy not been on the receiving end of recent brutal terror attacks in the same way that many other European nations have? By this research, I attempt to understand what Italy has done to mitigate terror threats better than other European nations. To do this, it is important to distinguish luck from planning, as one theory purports that there is no inherent piece of the Italian system that has reduced the threat of terrorism. My research indicates that a series of factors are important, including policing, border policies, historical context, radicalization issues, and governmental practices and policies. Italy excels in many areas where other nations do not, occasionally at the expense of due process and human rights. In this research design, Italy will be compared across Europe as a whole, the EU, and Western Europe in different situations. However, these strengths in comprehensive Italian counterterrorism are still fallible; it would be unwise to predict that these trends are foolproof as the potential for terror always exists, especially as growing numbers of second-generation immigrants experience the potential for radicalization.
Monthly Archives: December 2019
Protests in Tbilisi ignited in Juneafter Russian lawmaker Sergei Gavrilov, deputy of the Russian State Duma, sat in the Georgian parliamentary speaker’s seat and addressed the audience in Russian. Protesters were not only angry about the Kremlin’s overreach into Georgia, but also with the Georgian Dream Party, which protesters claim has failed to adequately protect the country from Russian aggression. “The Russia factor was the trigger for this crisis, but it was not the cause,” rather the breaking point was “very polarized domestic politics in which the opposition plays the Russian card to discredit the government” according to Georgia expert Thomas de Waal (Higgins).
Monthly Archives: December 2019
On October 1, China impressed the world on the 70th anniversary of Communist rule with a military parade that highlighted the technological progress and investment into military might China has made[1]. Among these technologies is the deployment of hypersonic missiles; weapons that have worrying implications for the nature of security and warfare in the Pacific.
Monthly Archives: December 2019
Last month, President Trump announced plans to relocate American troops from the Northern Syrian/Southern Turkish border. Since the withdrawal, Turkey has launched several ground attacks on the border of northern Syria, which is part of the area known internationally as Kurdistan. The attacks are part of Turkey’s “Operation Peace Spring”, a military assault designed to “prevent the creation of terror corridor across [the Turkish] southern border,”[1][2] according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. President Erdogan expressed his intention to “crush [the] heads”[3] of Kurdish militants in this attack. Many native Kurdish people on the border of Turkey and Syria are seeking refuge in nearby areas as the situation intensifies.
Monthly Archives: November 2019
ANALYSIS
Monthly Archives: November 2019
In late October, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Saudi Arabia to meet with King Salman to discuss oil investment between the two countries. Two important pacts were signed during this visit to encourage partnership and cooperation in setting up fuel reserves. The India-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council was formed to allow for India to “address its expectations and aspirations” (Pant). According to the Economic Times, “Saudi Arabia is India’s second biggest supplier of oil after Iraq. It is also now India’s fourth largest trading partner with bilateral trade at $27.48 billion in 2017-18 and Saudi investment of around $100 billion is in the pipeline in areas ranging from energy, refining, petrochemicals and infrastructure to agriculture, minerals and mining” (Contributors, 2019). These meetings between India and Saudi Arabia are setting the stage for the economy to grow and for closer ties between these two countries.
Monthly Archives: November 2019
In recent months, Russia has been working with Chinese tech company Huawei to bolster its economy and infrastructure. Huawei has been able to leverage its joint venture with Russia to bolster their research and company goals.
Monthly Archives: November 2019
On October 9, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a presidential decree granting former president Nursultan Nazabayev power to veto appointees to a majority of government leadership positions (5). This decree forbade Tokayev from unilaterally appointing “cabinet ministers, heads of various security forces and regional governors.” Tokayev will still maintain control over cabinet minister appointments in the “defense, internal affairs and foreign affairs” departments (4). The decree granted Nazarbayev “a consultative role in the appointments in his capacity as chairman of the Security Council” (4). Tokayev will need to consult Nazarbayev on appointees for all subordinate bodies, including the Kazakh domestic intelligence agency (KNB), foreign intelligence agency, the central bank, and even the head of Tokayev’s own security detail (1).
Monthly Archives: November 2019
While it cannot be categorically stated that the United States “won” the Cold War, the fall of the Soviet Union and the ensuing economic and political turmoil in Russia left the United States as the only surviving global superpower. In the early 1990s, the modern-day perception of a powerful, ascendant China had not yet solidified, and China remained unable to compete with the United States in spite of its rapid economic growth. Indeed, although it can be considered a regional superpower in Asia, at present China is a global superpower only economically.1
Monthly Archives: November 2019
Late October 2019 saw border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan that led to the deaths of three Afghan civilians. These clashes began after Afghan forces and local militias stopped the Pakistani military from establishing a military installation along the border in eastern Kunar province. Afghan sources claimed that Pakistani forces fired mortars and rockets at villages in the border district of Nari during these clashes.
Monthly Archives: November 2019
While the U.S. State Department did not designate the Shi’a Muslim group Hezbollah as a foreign terrorist organization until 1997, the group had been active since the early 1980s. Based in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s first attack came in 1983 in response to the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. Because Iran wanted to start a proxy war with Israel, they provided Hezbollah with ample funding and weapons. With Iran’s help, Hezbollah successfully removed the Israeli Defense Forces from Lebanon. The group published their manifesto in 1985, which stated, among other items, that American hegemony was the “source of all their catastrophes,” and their main priority is the annihilation of Israel and the expulsion of colonists, like the United States, from the Middle East.[1] This group functions in the Middle East and North Africa region and receives extensive support from Iran including missiles, military training, and more than $700 million per year.[2] Hezbollah is also an influential political party in Lebanon; in the 2018 parliamentary elections, the party won the plurality of votes, and in 2008, the party gained veto power in the cabinet.[3] This politically agile group presents many issues for the United States’ War on Terror. While Hezbollah is rightfully on the State Department’s list of terrorist organizations, the United States needs to open a dialogue with Hezbollah and recognize their role as a powerful political party in Lebanon. This will help the U.S. protect its foreign policy interests in countering terrorism and maintaining political and economic stability in Lebanon.
Monthly Archives: November 2019
Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) is a Basque separatist group that formed in 1959. For a half-century, ETA actively perpetrated over a hundred terror attacks across Spain and France. The ultimate political goal was that of a unified and independent Basque land that comprises the Basque region in northern Spain and southwestern France. There is very little debate over ETA’s actions throughout the second half of the 20th century. However, recent events have called the US foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designation into question. The proclaimed cessation of all paramilitary operations and ultimate disbanding of any political aims and structure in 2018 would make the FTO designation pointless (Jones 2018). Because of the stated disbanding of the group, it would be a mere technicality to remove ETA from the list of FTOs – nothing gained, nothing lost. However, ETA as an idea rather than populated organization still creates cause for concern. That in mind, it would be useful to compare the current activities and influences of ETA with similar groups that are not listed as FTOs to make the case that ETA should no longer be listed. Other similar groups exist with even a stated modus operandi that are not listed. A designation as FTO also further complicates genuine political activities surrounding Basque separatism that are legitimate and unaffiliated with ETA.
Monthly Archives: November 2019
Western media has seen steady reports originating from Hong Kong in the last few months detailing the rising tension over the mainland-Chinese sponsored extradition bill, in which perpetrators of certain crimes can potentially be extradited to the mainland for prosecution. Hong Kong and China’s stark differences in government and right to free speech have exacerbated the issue, with claims from the former stating that China has seen fit to unfairly accuse and then prosecute their citizens for things as simple as professing their distrust of the latter’s oversight. Tensions hit a new high several months ago as Hong Kong’s citizens took to the streets in groups of up to a million people, protesting for their rights. Eventually this led to tear gassing from masses of riot police being introduced to the mix, who allegedly beat and injured thousands of people, even those not directly involved in the protest [1]. Just days ago, Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam, seen by many as a puppet figure controlled by Xi Jinping and the mainland government, came face to face with one of many angry groups of Hong Kong’s protesting citizens in a town hall meeting where she was insulted and frustratingly berated by a horde of people [2].
Monthly Archives: November 2019
Russia has a long history of cooperation and coalescence with India. Within the last three years, there has been several developments between to the countries with the goal of creating economic and defensive growth. While relations between the two countries has not always been smooth, Russia still considers India one of its “top 5 friends” (Bagchi, Indrani and Tnn).
Monthly Archives: October 2019
Ever since the year 2000, economic trade between China and Australia has grown exponentially. David Chau from Australian Broadcasting Station reports, “In 2017-18, China was by far Australia’s largest trading partner, contributing $194.6 billion worth of imports and exports. This was more than the combined value of trade with Japan and the United States ($147.8 billion).”[1] Most of these economic ties were forged within just the last ten years.[2] For a time, it seemed like Sino–Australian relations could not get any better. However, since 2017, Sino–Australian relations have shown significant signs of decline. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute even stated, “A new cold war with China is playing out in all but name.”[3]
Monthly Archives: October 2019
Based on the rules Russia has proposed that oppose the Budapest Convention, the United States should continue to support the international collaboration within the Budapest Convention. The United States currently is involved in maintaining the balance between upholding its own cybersecurity laws and helping other countries uphold theirs. By keeping the Budapest Convention in place, the United States would continue to enforce its cybersecurity laws, which are necessary as it is one of the countries most affected by cybercrime (Peters). Maintaining these laws would also take away power from Russia and China, as they would allow continued access to international networks for monitoring and criminal activity tracking purposes. Russia and China both want to take more domestic control over Internet access by censoring and cutting off access to their Internet, and such policies threaten U.S. national security (Morgan, Ayres).
Monthly Archives: October 2019
On September 5, 2019, a suicide car bombing ripped through downtown Kabul, Afghanistan, killing ten people, including a U.S. soldier. The Taliban claimed responsibility for this and another attack three days earlier that killed sixteen people just east of the capital city. In response, President Donald Trump publicly called off a secret meeting with Taliban officials scheduled for that weekend and declared that peace negotiations were “dead.” This breakdown in talks marks the ninth time that talks have been proposed and subsequently fallen apart since the start of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan in 2001.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
An August 8 nuclear accident in Nyonska, Russia is the result of Russia’s nuclear expansion, which Russia President Vladimir Putin officially announced in March 2018. This accident, along with the INF Treaty’s collapse in February 2019, show that the United States needs to examine its current nuclear policies and set new objectives to match the evolving global order. Its two objectives need to be global non-proliferation and improving security and prosperity across the globe.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
30 years ago, the Filipino city of Davao was one of the most dangerous cities in the world. Between communist groups, Muslim separatists, and local corruption, Davao had a 3-digit crime rate per 10,000 people. Asia Week branded Davao as the “Murder City” in 1985. Today Davao has just landed in 5th spot on the safest city rankings behind Osaka, Seoul, Singapore, and Bursa. According to the Davao City official website:
Monthly Archives: October 2019
Recently, the tension in the region of Kashmir and Jammu has reached a turning point. The citizens are protesting more than ever before, especially with the termination of article 370. With the frequent acts of terror by the terrorist group Jaish-E-Mohammed (JeM), political strife, and increased instability within the region, it is likely that the area could be bracing for significant impact of change.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
Last month, cruise missiles targeted and damaged oil facilities in Saudi Arabia owned by Saudi Aramco. The Houthis in Yemen immediately claimed responsibility for the attack and the United States and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran soon afterwards, insisting the missiles were launched from southern Iran.[1] The reactions of other countries, particularly those remaining in the JCPOA, have proven to be just as important.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
Recent terror attacks have brought renewed scrutiny to a Pakistan-based Taliban branch. The group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for a roadside bomb blast in northwestern Pakistan in August that targeted members of a peace committee aiding the Pakistani government. It also claimed responsibility for an attack that killed one Pakistani soldier in the North Waziristan region, near the border with Afghanistan, in September.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
Abkhazia’s elections headed to a run-off after a tie on August 25. The run-off contest was held on September 8 between incumbent Raul Khajimba and opposition candidate Alkhas Kvitsinia. Khajimba received 47.3 percent of the vote, beating out Kvitsinia’s 46.17 percent. Kvitsinia’s team disputed the results over Article 19 from the law “On the Election of the President of the Republic of Abkhazia,” which “ambiguously describes the protocol” to determine the winner of a second-round election (1). His argument—which Abkhazia’s supreme court struck down—was that the law requires the winner to receive over 50 percent of the vote.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
The current laws of cybersecurity are contained in a document known as the Convention on Cybercrime, also called the Budapest Convention. A couple of the main points in the Convention are that cybercrime can be an international concern, as opposed to being a concern on a country-by-country basis. This means that the United States may have to step in to help enforce cyber laws that may be legal in the United States, but illegal elsewhere, and that other countries can monitor each other’s’ internet activity under the guise of trying to find people who may be breaking foreign laws while residing in the United States. This, however, also allows the United States to have greater control of the Internet on its own shores, as anyone breaking copyright law internationally to proliferate materials could still be caught and reprimanded. The Convention can lead to many complex issues, but can also allow countries to maintain Internet freedom in the way they see fit. With the Internet becoming a global issue, there must be global standards for it, and the Budapest Convention allows global standards for the issue to exist (Anderson).
Monthly Archives: October 2019
“With more than half of all Arctic coastline along its northern shores, Russia has long sought economic and military dominance in part of the world where as much as $35 trillion worth of untapped oil and natural gas could be lurking.” (Dillow)
Monthly Archives: October 2019
The Kingdom of Jordan, a Middle Eastern country smaller than many American states, has found itself in an increasingly unpredictable environment since 2003. Conflicts in Israel/Palestine, Syria, and Iraq surround it, and its economy is straining with 18% unemployment, high taxes, and corruption.[1]
Monthly Archives: October 2019
Tensions in the South China Sea have escalated between certain countries and have also de-escalated with others. Vietnam—who shares a border with China—is particularly concerned about China’s aggressiveness in the region. Beijing has recently engaged in oil drilling in the Sea near Vietnam’s territorial waters. China placed a deep-water oil rig in the Sea close to the Paracel Islands but later removed it when Vietnam said that the rig was violating its territorial rights (Zhou, Laura. 2019). In further confrontations with Vietnam, Chinese coast guard ships have repeatedly entered Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone. A Chinese survey ship came within 56 nautical miles of Vietnam prompting Hanoi to dispatch naval vessels to counter the aggression. These events show that Vietnam is still highly engaged in defending its own territorial sovereignty in the Sea.
Monthly Archives: September 2019
In the last few months, Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, has been rocked by a series of bombings. Although Bangladesh has struggled with terrorist attacks in recent decades, the pace at which they are happening seems to be more frequent. This report reviews ISIS’s history in Bangladesh and an analysis of what the Bangladeshi authorities can do about the situation.
Monthly Archives: September 2019
For the first time in five years and since his reelection back in 2018, Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has dropped below 65 percent. His approval rating has been continuously recorded by the Levada Analytical Center since Putin first took office, and looking at the patterns in the ratings data, we see that these low ratings should make us nervous.
Monthly Archives: September 2019
As a founding member of the United Nations and member of the UN security council, the USSR was expected to abide by UN resolutions in order to further the common interest. However, during the 1950 Soviet boycott of the UN (initiated to protest the exclusion of the People’s Republic of China), the Security Council adopted Resolution 84.1 This resolution would lead to the UN military intervention in the Korean War, placing the Soviet Union at odds with many fellow United Nations members through its support of the North Korean regime. Consequently, Soviet aid to North Korea was kept as low-profile as possible, consisting mainly of weapons, vehicles and aircraft. The exceptions to this rule were the Soviet pilots secretly sent to fly under North Korean and Chinese colors, who were not officially recognized as having participated in the conflict until the 1990s.2
Monthly Archives: September 2019
Denuclearization talks have come to the forefront of the Trump administration’s foreign policy concerns and now even tops the list of international issues. Negotiations with North Korea have been pursued for many years and over numerous administrations with varying success. Some of the most in-depth and involved discussions took place during the Six-Party talks in China from 2003 to 2009. While the talks ended with no comprehensive denuclearization deal, recent calls from many countries to resume talks may indicate that there is an increased willingness internationally to resolve this issue[1].
Monthly Archives: September 2019
The former president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, died at 95 on September 6, 2019 in Singapore, after receiving medical treatment there.[1] Mugabe began his political career as Prime Minister in 1980; however, when Zimbabwe’s parliament amended the constitution in 1987, Mugabe was declared the executive President. This new position allowed Mugabe to dissolve parliament, declare martial law, and run for an unlimited number of terms.[2] During his time as President, Mugabe was a controversial figure. His early work focused on liberating Zimbabwe from British colonialism, imperialism, and white minority rule. He was praised as a revolutionary in the struggle for African freedom from Western powers. Two years after he assumed the presidency, the economy sustained limited growth and Mugabe implemented new clinics and schools for the disenfranchised black population.[3] However, resentment toward him and his administration grew as he began to seize land from the white population without compensation, and he refused to amend the one-party constitution. Mugabe’s government officials awarded themselves pay raises while the country’s inflation continued to soar.[4] In 2008, Mugabe lost the presidential election to the leader of the opposition party, Morgan Tsvangirai; however, Mugabe refused to cede power and demanded a re-election. In the interim, Mugabe had the opposition supporters attacked and killed, until Tsvangirai withdrew from the race. This violent repression of his political opponents led many critics to labelling him a dictator.[5]
Monthly Archives: September 2019
A nuclear explosion rocked an offshore platform in the White Sea on August 8, killing five nuclear scientists and two Defense Ministry employees. The following weekend, the Kremlin only provided small details and contradictory information, an approach which added to the suspicion surrounding the incident. Finally, on August 12, Vyacheslav Solovyov, scientific director of the Russian Federal Nuclear Center revealed that these scientists were working on “small-sized energy sources using radioactive fissile materials” at the Nyonoksa military range (Smith). Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear agency, later divulged that the nuclear system included “isotope power sources within a liquid propulsion system” (Smith).
Monthly Archives: September 2019
Over the past two and a half years of the Trump administration, American energy companies have quietly made deals with Saudi Arabian energy officials to begin trading information on nuclear energy.[1] The United States and Saudi Arabia see nuclear development as a very symbiotic and lucrative deal, which could bring the US several billions of dollars in trade revenue every year. However, several politicians and energy officials fear that a nuclear arms race will develop between Iran and SA.[2] SA hopes to both satisfy its increasing power needs and protect itself.[3] Despite some hesitations, the US has moved forward with authorizations as the Kingdom hopes to build two new plants in the coming years.
Monthly Archives: September 2019
The tides of terrorism are reaching a number of nations with increasing severity, including the islands of the UK. With heightened tensions due to a number of terrorist attacks within the last few years and divisive rhetoric from both lawmakers and the general public, a sense of vulnerability is emerging.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
Mongolia, once the center of the largest contiguous land empire of all time, is now seldom seriously considered in terms of current global politics. In fact, when U.S. National Security advisor John Bolton was assigned to visit Mongolia during President Trump’s meeting with Kim Jong Un, it was reported as a “banishment”.1 To Mongolia, however, Bolton’s visit signaled a continued interest in expanding U.S. trade relations and military cooperation with a rare ally in Central Asia.2
Monthly Archives: August 2019
Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar began his military career by taking part in the 1969 coup that overthrew King Idris and established Muammar Qaddafi as the head of the Libyan state. Shortly thereafter, Haftar became Qaddafi’s chief of staff of the armed forces and was given control over Libya’s conflict with Chad.[1] Although loyal to Qaddafi, when Haftar and his men were captured as prisoners of war in Chad in 1987, Qaddafi repudiated him and demanded that Haftar’s soldiers be returned to Libya; however, the United States moved them to Zaire. Qaddafi’s disavowal angered Haftar and in 1988 he joined the C.I.A.-supported National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL) while in Chad.[2] When the NFSL was unable to overthrow Qaddafi, the United States flew Haftar and his men to Virginia, where Haftar lived for the next 20 years while gaining U.S. citizenship.[3]
Monthly Archives: August 2019
What began as the straightforward territorial claim and annexation of Crimea in 2014 has now become a protracted, multidimensional conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. While the two countries continue to exchange economic, political, and physical blows, Ukraine has moved its fight for permanent independence into the sphere of religion.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
FaceApp recently came back into vogue after going viral for the first time in 2017. FaceApp uses AI to alter a person’s face with various filters (Giancaspro). This time around, however, many people began to realize that FaceApp was collecting metadata on all of the pictures they were uploading to the app for image processing. One of the main concerns of the app was that there was evidence that the app did all image processing server-side, giving FaceApp access to copies of pictures uploaded to it. These concerns were further exacerbated when consumers found out that FaceApp was created by a Russian company owned by a previous executive of Yandex. The CEO of the FaceApp company assured the media that FaceApp does send data to Russia, and evidence suggests that this is true (Carman).
Monthly Archives: August 2019
With Indonesia being the fourth most populous nation on the planet, and with the largest Muslim majority of any country, the threat of Islamic extremism emanating from Indonesia cannot be overlooked. Malaysia, the Philippines, Afghanistan, Australia, and the United States are all keenly aware of the threat of terrorism coming from Indonesia. These countries have been involved in investigating attacks that have happened within Indonesia as well as outside of the country. Recently, one of the most potent Indonesian terrorist group that has instigated much havoc in, and outside the country, is the terrorist group Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD).
Monthly Archives: August 2019
Following the US global ban on Chinese tech-company Huawei, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad came out stating that Malaysia would continue to roll out the company’s 5G cellular expansion. Additionally, China is investing heavily into Malaysia’s infrastructure with their Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI is a global development strategy of China consisting of infrastructure development and heavy investments with 152 nations. The month following the 5G announcement, Malaysia accepted 12 surveillance drones from the US. Malaysia is hedging their options by attempting to continue their monetary access to Chinese investments while staying under the US security umbrella. Following talks with ASEAN last week, it is clear that China and the US want to flex their influence in Malaysia.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
US-Iran relations have grown increasingly troubled since the election of President Trump. Given the recent rhetoric from the current administration, some worry about the possibility of conventional armed conflict between the two states. Military maneuvers on both sides have postured the two nations for conflict despite some congressional efforts to prevent war. In June, an unmanned US drone was shot down in what Iran claimed was its airspace. President Trump accused Iran of “warmongering”[1] while Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that the drone had “violated Iranian airspace.”[2] In July, Iranian officials detained a British tanker in response to Britain’s detainment of an oil tanker in Gibraltar.[3]
Monthly Archives: August 2019
This summer has been notably characterized by a heating up of tensions between the US and its allies, and Iran. President Trump’s hardline, “maximum pressure” approach against Tehran, which dates back to his withdrawal from the JCPOA in the spring of 2018, has been firm and constant. The US has imposed strict economic sanctions, sent 2,500 troops to the region, an aircraft carrier, and conducted cyber attacks, while Iran has shot down a US drone and allegedly attacked ships in the region.[1] Iran’s acts of aggression and recent breaches of sections of the JCPOA are primarily meant to coerce the US into lifting the series of economic sanctions it has enacted since its withdrawal from the accord.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
A United Nations Security Council communication released in July warned that although the incidence rate of Islamic-motivated terrorism has declined in the last months, the terror threat is still high. The Security Council noted that while ISIL no longer has any geographic holdings, its presence in Iraq and surrounding states combined with its ideology and ability to undermine fragile West African political structures still pose threats. Furthermore, the progress made by Al-Qaida and its allies, although financially less formidable than ISIL, creates similar cause for concern.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
In a “significant” military buildup over the past 18 months, Russia has increased its troops, aircraft, and weapons in Crimea and improved its Soviet bases and S-400 anti-aircraft systems (13). One U.S. official described Defense One’s satellite imagery analysis of the region “a deliberate and systematic buildup of [Russian] forces on the peninsula” (1).
Monthly Archives: August 2019
Nearly 1,400 people were arrested last weekend in Moscow for protesting against the Kremlin’s decision to bar independent candidates from running for election in Moscow’s city Duma (Walker). While the police let go many of these people without much fuss, around 150 people remain in custody.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
This is how The Wall Street Journal described Alexei Navalny back in 2012 near the beginning of his prominence in Russia as a political activist. Navalny has been an outspoken critic of political and governmental corruption as well as a critic of President Vladimir Putin himself, calling United Russia, Russia’s ruling party, a “party of crooks and thieves.” He has quickly become the prominent face of Russian opposition to Putin, and with this has led multiple nationwide protests. He has gained most of his followers through his social media presence, with over two million subscribers to his YouTube channel and even more than that following him on Twitter, not to mention his blog that has been translated into English. Along with all of this, he ran in the Moscow mayoral election supported by the People’s Freedom Party, coming in second with a large portion of the votes. With a presence like that, it makes sense that Putin would consider Navalny a threat.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
In July’s snap parliamentary elections, Ukrainian President President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s Servant of the People Party secured a majority with 91 percent of the vote counted. Ukraine has a mixed-party system; half of Verkhovna Rada’s seats are determined by party lists and the other half by “first-past-the-post constituency races” (6). Servant of the People’s showing in both races positions Zelenskiy to push his reforms forward in Ukraine. Winning 129 of 199 constituencies and 122 of 199 party seats, the election results mark the first time “in Ukraine’s post-independence history that a party obtains a majority in the parliament—the Verkhovna Rada” (6).
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Earlier this month, the Republic of Turkey defied the United States and NATO by accepting the delivery of the S-400 mobile surface-to-air missile system from Russia. The S-400 is the successor of the S-300 missile system, and compared to the U.S. Patriot missile system is capable of engaging more targets at longer ranges simultaneously. This deal has been in the works since 2017, brokered amid warnings from the United States of economic and political consequences.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Russia created several heavy data laws after it illegally annexed Crimea and Western powers imposed sanctions on it (RFE/RL). However, one of the first data laws that Russia was involved with came about in 2012-2013 with the introduction of the now-defunct BRICS organization. BRICS was an organization of several countries spearheaded by Brazil and South Africa that aimed to create an Internet not centered on the United States. The organization planned to achieve this goal by laying its own fiber optic cable. Russia was involved, though it did not lead the initiative. As of 2015, BRICS has been inactive and seemingly dissolved (Lee).
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Turkey and ISIS have long been at odds and exchanged both rhetoric and firepower indicating such. Turkey claims to have been the first country that designated ISIS as a terrorist organization, and more than any other European country Turkey has been the target of ISIS terrorist attacks.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
For years the United States and other Western countries sold millions of tons of used soda bottles, juice containers, shampoo bottles, and other plastics to be recycled into new products in China. At the end of 2018, China halted their imports of recyclables, creating a crisis for many Western countries. Often included in the shipments were western trash that could not be recycled. With cheap labor and relaxed environmental regulation, many of these factory owners moved shop to the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Some of the new recycling factories had authorized permits however many did not. Most of these transactions were private commercial transactions without the government’s consent. The factory owners did not have to pay to, “properly” dispose, of the trash that could not be recycled. Instead they would burn or dump the unrecyclable material. The incorrect disposal methods really took a toll on the communities and wildlife that were near the factories. Local communities took to the internet to complain and show the pollution that was happening.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
The Pakistan Armed Forces were created from the British Indian Army in 1947 (Heathcote 1995, 253). They are comprised of the Army, Navy, and Airforce and are led by Zubair Mahmood Hayat, who currently serves as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (Shaikh 2016; Blood 1996, 287-288). This committee includes the Chief of Army Staff, Chief of Naval Staff, and Chief of Air Staff, and is the highest administrative body in Pakistan’s military (Blood 1996, 288). Also relevant is the Inter-Services Intelligence, the agency responsible for covert operations abroad (Blood 1996, 288). The minimum age for voluntary military service is sixteen, although eighteen is the minimum age for deployment (Central Intelligence Agency, 2019). Women can serve in all three branches (Central Intelligence Agency, 2019).
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Peace Prospects for Kosovo and Serbia: A Historical Context.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Lebanese politics are currently centered on forming a new government that can help Lebanon address its pressing economic issues (Perry 2018; Al-Jazeera 2018). However, the process is strongly hindered by spats on the role of Hezbollah and its affiliates in the new unity government (Macaron 2018; Anbar 2018; Dakroub 2018).
Monthly Archives: January 2014
Since the formation of the Chinese Communist party, the world has watched China evolve into the world power it is today. While it is clearly evident that China is continually increasing its soft power around the world, it is less evident that China is in the midst of serious economic woes. Many of China’s efforts to expand its soft power focus on utilizing its comparative economic might, others, however, focus on expanding China’s culture. Through its acclaimed Confucian Institutes, China is planting footholds throughout Africa. These footholds increase awareness and notoriety for China throughout the entire continent. In addition, China is pouring capital into Africa, Iceland, and the United States. These foreign investments indicate a weakening homeland where Chinese billionaires do not want to store their capital. China is playing a deceiving game of economic protectionism masked by a rise in soft power. Given China’s current track, competing world powers need not fear China’s total economic dominance.
The Chinese government’s understanding of human rights is fundamentally different from that widely held by much of the West. Additionally, many human rights lawyers oppose the Chinese government’s views and practices. This dissonance poses a threat to the stability of the region, especially considering China’s common historical cycle of oppression, protest and revolution. While potential protests may indeed bring about change, possibly even a positive one, instability is a probable byproduct, as seen in China’s own revolutionary past. However, change will come slowly in the People’s Republic of China until the majority of its population is aware of the ruling party’s human rights violations. There are several groups fighting for this change and as a result, China is seeing new laws that can improve the human rights situation. A special group of lawyers, called human rights lawyers seek to enforce these laws within the government. While it may be an uphill battle, human rights lawyers need to continue to pressure the government within their rights, and they will need support from the international community. Stability in China is of top priority for U.S. national security. A new level of chaos in the region could translate to a decline in the Chinese economy, which is so vital to the world market, in particular the U.S. economy.
The Syrian civil war has escalated significantly in recent days. As the Syrian regime forces have begun a campaign to take back the strategic city of Qusayr, Sunni jihadists, among them the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda in Iraq, have begun operations against Shi’ites in Lebanon and Iraq. These terrorist activities could spark protracted civil wars in both Lebanon and Iraq along sectarian lines.
With the recent calming of North Korean rhetoric, it appears as if the skeptics were correct in assuming that North Korea would not actually attack the United States or South Korea. However, with long-term goals on the line for Chinese and North Korean policy makers, they were successful in causing a hiccup in the progress of regional stability, as well as weakening the image and message of American diplomacy. The last bout of North Korean rhetoric showed an important shift in power away from the United States and towards China.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and North Korea have a complicated relationship built on similar ideology and mutual economic gain. In fact, Support began in the Korean war in the 50’s when china obviously supported other communist regimes. In 1961, the two countries signed the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty, whereby China pledged to immediately render military and other assistance by all means to its ally against any outside attack. This treaty was prolonged twice, in 1981 and 2001, with a validity till 2021. The PRC in recent years has been the most powerful ally of the small pariah state. From this relationship, the PRC fills its need for raw materials, and its need for regional power. North Korea obviously stands to gain from having a large friend in the region, in addition to receiving its largest supply of food, arms, and fuel. However, China’s stance on UN sanctions against N Korea indicates that raw goods and ideology are not sufficient leverage for N Korea to hold so powerful an ally.
China stands as a rising global power in an increasingly interconnected world. Therefore, the United States must adopt a foreign policy that maintains stability in East Asia. However, relations between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the US have undergone many changes in recent years, some for the worse. The most striking point in PRC-US relations is the fact that China views the independence of Taiwan as the continuation of civil war. Understandably, US support of Taiwan only furthers the tension within the region. Consequently, US-Taiwan relations are an ever-changing aspect of US foreign policy that attempts to balance its delicate relationship and maintain peace in the region.
On October 25, 2012, The New York Times published an eye-opening report on an extensive, billion-dollar business empire constructed by relatives of China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao. Three months later, the Times revealed it had been undergoing intense cyber attacks even before the report was publicly released. Cooperating with AT&T, the FBI, and a leading cybersecurity firm, the Times pinned the digital break-ins on Chinese hackers, adding that the Chinese military was likely involved.
The situation in Syria has been deteriorating rapidly in the past few weeks. New developments are of special concern for U.S. national security as we are getting a new view of Syria’s geopolitical reality. These developments include the rise in preeminence of al-Qaeda and its affiliates among the rebellion, concerns surrounding chemical weapons security, and recent regime activities that may indicate their short to mid-term goals.
In Chad Turner’s article on homegrown vs. international terrorism, he states “Despite the relative ease domestic terrorists may have in carrying out attacks, these attacks are less probable than attacks from international groups.”
On April 8th, 2010 President Barack Obama signed a nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russian Federation Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The treaty is called “New START”: START for Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and ‘New’ because this treaty is an updated version of previous nuclear arms reduction treaties between the United States and Russia. The United States Senate then ratified the treaty on December 22nd, 2010. The treaty needed 67 votes in order to be ratified and instead received 71. All 56 Democratic senators voted for ratification of the treaty, as well as both independent senators and 13 republican senators who crossed party lines to vote for ratification of the treaty. President Obama completed the ratification process of the treaty by signing the document on February 2nd, 2011.
In the last Presidential debate of the 2012 election cycle, both President Obama and Governor Romney referred to the U.S. national debt as a growing threat to security. These claims echo the 2011 remarks of Admiral Michael Mullin, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, asserting that the national debt is the greatest security threat currently facing the United States. In addition to severe economic problems, the inability to resolve the debt issue may result in a weakened ability to pursue military and diplomatic missions, an increase in domestic human security problems, and an expansion of foreign influence regarding U.S. policy.
Events in the Middle East and North Africa in recent months indicate a major shift in strategy by al-Qaeda and its affiliates. While many officials mistake this shift as a sign of al-Qaeda’s looming defeat, it actually displays a rapidly growing danger to U.S. national security. Al-Qaeda’s new ability to capitalize on instability amid preexisting rebellions is quite disturbing, and is occurring in several locations. The place of most significance for al-Qaeda is Syria, but a look at their ongoing late-phase operation in Mali can offer some insights into future developments in Syria.
On Tuesday, President Ahmadinejad accused the United States and “internal enemies” of waging a “psychological war” against Iran in an attempt to stop Iranians from ditching the weakening rial for U.S. dollars. This “war” refers to the significant problems Iran faces, including the U.S.-led economic sanctions, a threatened Israeli military strike, and now internal protests. While this perceived psychological war against Iran has yet to turn into a physical conflict, the United States and Israel must be aware that increasing pressure may cause the Iranian military and government to act erratically, which may lead to Iranian military action.
My use of the word illegal is not the right word with regard to the Ultra Orthodox Jewish belief. Their word is illegitimate. I not sure if there is any real difference between illegal and illegitimate. The point is that the Jewish belief is that the Messiah has to establish the state of Israel, not men. Others who do not accept the state of Israel, like Iran, believe that the United Nations partitioning of Palestine into a Jewish state and a Palestinian state was illegal. That discussion is for international legal scholars. My point about the Jewish population in Iran is just to establish that Iran seems not to have a problem with Jews per se but with the state of Israel; otherwise they would be rounding them up and either expelling them or killing them.
In what sense is Israel an ‘illegal’ state? Under what law is this so? Is the United States illegal? Is Iran legal? Or more to the point, is the regime in Tehran legal in spite of many violations of human rights, sponsorship of terrorism, acts of outright war, etc.? Does the survival of Jewish dhimmis in Iran mean that Israel has no legitimate self-defense concerns?
One of the biggest recent news stories in the East Asian Region is the continuing territorial dispute between China and Japan. The two world superpowers have been involved in the dispute for longer than either would care to admit, given the nature of the islands themselves. The islands, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, consist largely of nothing but jagged rock faces, overgrown shrubs, and wild birds. Despite this fact, the dispute has flared recently, even causing the Chinese to cancel plans for an event that was supposed to mark 40 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Excellent analysis. I believe that the leaders of Iran have been misquoted about their opposition to Israel’s existence. They seem to believe that Israel is an illegal state. This is also the view of Ultra Conservative Jews who believe that only the Messiah can establish the state of Israel. As further evidence that the leaders of Iran are not anti-Semitic, Tehran has a significant Jewish population who are not subject to treatment like the Jews received at the hands of the Nazis. This analysis should be read by Mitt Romney and advisers who project the intent to attack Iran over this Nuclear program.
Iran’s nuclear program has again entered the spotlight of U.S. foreign policy debates in a election cycle in which foreign policy has taken the backseat. The current debates often result in three scenarios: 1) Iran gives up its nuclear program, 2) Israel (with or without U.S. assistance) makes a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, postponing Iran’s progress, or 3) The parties involved wait until Iran develops nuclear weapons and thus assure a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel. Essentially, these scenarios ultimately result in either Iran ending its nuclear program or an unavoidable war between Israel (and therefore the U.S.) and Iran. These scenarios leave no room for the possibility of a nuclear Iran without war.
A recent study of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict between 1987 and 2004 shows a reduction in the number of terrorist attacks following the enactment of humanitarian policies. The study provides some evidence to the argument that terror attacks can be reduced through “incentivizing peace rather than punishing violence.” These results were upheld by case studies of Turkey, Lebanon, Algeria, and Egypt–areas in which the goal of terrorist activity is mainly political: namely, the expulsion of a real or perceived foreign military and political presence from the region. While these peace-incentivizing policies may not directly impact those presently engaged in terrorist activity, strengthening the economic base may deter others being recruited into the organizations, thus reducing the number of terrorists and terror attacks.
I applaud the article written regarding Somalia and the pirates that hold the country hostage from progress.
The recent debate over the Affordable Care Act, known to critics as Obamacare, highlights the growing divide in U.S. politics and the political culture that idolizes politicians with a ‘no-compromises’ stance. This was made abundantly clear through the fight over the constitutionality of the healthcare law as well as the recent Republican presidential primaries where Mitt Romney was accusingly labeled a “moderate” by competing candidates. Romney had to fight each surging challenger’s accusations of being moderate and continues to struggle against hard-liners of his party. This fight to assuage ideological worries within one of the major U.S. parties shows the pull away from the center towards the more hard-line views.
Pakistan has been gambling for a long time with its use of militants as a strategic edge over India. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) created and utilized different groups that we generally label as “Taliban” in order to counter Indian power in the region. This has been a several decade-long endeavor but is now showing signs of failure as India is increasing its influence in Afghanistan. In this context, Indian-Pakistani relations will likely prove to be an even more critical national security issue as we scale back military efforts in the region.
Over the past few months, China and the Philippines have been in a tense maritime quarrel over a controversial piece of land known as the Scarborough Shoal. The shoal is located just 124 nautical miles off the coast of the Philippines’ largest island, Luzon. Despite the shoal lying within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone, China asserts claims that the shoal has been mapped as Chinese territory for centuries. The results of this stand-off could have significant implications for the United States.
During the middle of last month, Honduran and U.S. forces conducted a major drug bust that recovered a half-ton of cocaine in the river town of Ahuas. The morning following the raid, four homes were set ablaze by villagers retaliating against the people in their community who worked for the drug trafficking organizations (DTOs). These burning homes represent the unwelcome feelings for drug trafficking and the crime that comes with it. Additionally, the blaze represents a significant problem within Honduras and other countries along the drug trafficking routes: decreasing respect for and trust in the government’s ability to uphold the rule of law.
The year 2012 plays host to several important Presidential elections around the world: those in France, the first presidential elections in Egypt following the removal of Hosni Mubarak from power, and the elections in the United States with President Obama up for reelection in what seems to be an increasingly partisan climate. Another important presidential election this year is found in Latin America: specifically, the October contest between Hugo Chávez and Henrique Capriles in Venezuela.
Afghanistan will face two major issues this year. The more publicized issue is Pakistan’s refusal to open up their supply routes into Afghanistan for NATO use. The lesser known issue is the devastatingly poor poppy harvest. Both of these problems will create unique challenges for NATO forces. A brief examination of the problems will show points of concern that need to be addressed.
Last month, Argentina and Great Britain commemorated the 30th anniversary of the Falkland Islands Conflict in which Argentina attempted to take possession of the island about 250 miles off its coast in the Atlantic Ocean. Argentina’s claims for the the Falklands, or the Islas Malvinas as the Argentines call them, go back into the 19th century despite British control of the islands since 1833 (with the exception of the short time Argentina “re-occupied” them before Britain forcibly removed Argentina’s forces from the islands weeks later). Although the Falkland Conflict reestablished British control of the islands, Argentina has continued to fight for them in other ways, such as including the territorial claim for the Malvinas in its reformed constitution in 1994.
To coincide with the anniversary of the raid that killed Osama bin laden, the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point released 17 de-classified documents obtained in bin Laden’s Abbattobad compound. These 17 documents are a small fraction of the thousands of documents recovered from the raid. Despite their small number, these documents add color to our understanding of al-Qaeda’s leadership; namely, the relationship that al-Qaeda leaders maintained with its affiliates was the subject of internal debate and scrutiny. The insights gained from these prior inner workings may offer a glimpse into understanding the current dynamics of al-Qaeda methodology
Amid the lack of discussion about the magnitude of nuclear bombs themselves, India has opted to diversify and improve its nuclear delivery systems. Last week, in accordance with that goal, India successfully launched the AGNI V, a missile with the capability to send a nuclear warhead nearly 5,000 kilometers, or about 3,100 miles. As a nuclear delivery system, the AGNI V does not represent an increase in the size of the nuclear weapons but an increase in nuclear reach. India aims to further enhance its nuclear power by developing a ‘nuclear triad‘ system that would enable India to deliver nuclear warheads from air, land, and sea locations.
In November of last year, the Republican presidential candidates were asked to speak about a national security issue that had not been receiving enough attention. In response, three of the candidates reported that radical Islamist groups, namely Hamas and Hezbollah, were operating in Latin America across the Mexican border, presenting an “imminent threat to the United States of America.” Many of these claims were drawn from a report published by the American Enterprise Institute released in October 2011. This report states that “Hezbollah is using the Western Hemisphere as a staging ground, fundraising center, and operational base to wage asymmetric warfare against the United States.”
In recent weeks, Mali, a democratic West African nation, experienced two events that threaten the stability of the country: a military coup and a rebellion that took over a significant portion of the country. Although this may not seem like such an abnormal event, given the seeming regularity of coups in Africa, it is in fact a sign of the changing nature of the war with al-Qaeda and its growing umbrella of affiliated groups. The terrorist organization may be weaker than it was a decade ago, but it is less centralized and is spreading into an increasing number of ungoverned areas. The problems in Mali represent the long term issues we may be facing in regards to al-Qaeda.
An intelligence report released last week discussed a security threat that presents a frightening picture of the world, one in which clean, usable water is increasingly scarce. Water scarcity is in large part a result of increasing demand due to world population growth. U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton said in a speech given at the World Bank that “by 2025, we believe that it could be as much as two-thirds of the world’s population, including in more areas within developed countries where people will be living under water stress.” She continued to explain that “water security for us is a matter of economic security, human security, and national security, because we see potential for increasing unrest, conflicts, and instability over water.”
The attack in France this past week at the hands of the terrorist Mohammed Merah is reawakening Europe to the realities of radicalization. This event should not be viewed as the beginning of a complex new terror campaign domestically but should be seen as an infrequent reality of war with terror groups. The majority of attempted domestic attacks have been unsuccessful for a number of reasons, and most people who are successfully recruited end up going to conflict areas in order to train and act out their new sense of ideology rather than stay in their country. A quick overview of some aspects of the radicalization process will reveal that there is no trend towards coordinated attacks or rampant radicalization in the West.
You wrote a very good piece; congratulations.
When thinking security threats in Latin America, one has to think about the bloody war on drugs raging in Mexico. Although Mexico is currently the battle arena of the war on drugs, Colombia previously held that position. At the time, the United States and Colombia worked together militarily to combat this threat. Their efforts resulted in the significant weakening of the Colombian drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) and the subsequent rise of DTOs in Mexico. Removing the DTO threat in Colombia did not stop the drug trade in the Americas but merely displaced it, moving it along trade routes toward its largest consumer: the United States.
Recently there has been a deluge of calls for action to topple the Al-Assad regime in Syria in order to stop its bloody crackdown against the opposition movement. Many ideas have been thrown out into the open, the most prominent of which center around an air campaign, using a harsh set of sanctions against the regime, or arming the opposition with weapons capable of leveling the playing field. The loudest champions of these ideas by and large are generalizing the matter. Reducing the situation into black and white, election-friendly terms glosses over many of the grim realities in Syria. Looking at the main ideas listed above, we see that they are either unfeasible or the risks involved make them not only undesirable but also counterproductive.
Next Monday the Prime Minister of Israel will arrive in Washington, D.C. for an important security meeting with the President of the United States, Barack Obama. The focus of the meeting will be the ever-rising threat of a nuclear Iran. According to Israeli newspapers, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will request that the U.S. deliver an explicit military threat to Iran following the meeting. On the other hand, White House reports say that the President will likely want more time for the current sanctions and diplomatic actions to take effect.
This past week has seen Al-Qaeda rise after a period of weakening and transition. After losing a number of its leadership, most notably Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, it was thought that the organization would be further crippled until it could no longer operate effectively. However its recent actions in Iraq, Somalia, and possibly even Syria demonstrate that Al-Qaeda is transitioning itself to regain a foothold in the Middle East. At the same time, Iran has been penalized by the U.S. Treasury for its support of Al-Qaeda. Furthermore, a district court in 2011 found Iran guilty of being linked to the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania by Al-Qaeda. Although it has long been known that Iran is the largest state-backer of terrorism, this link to Al-Qaeda is especially important to understand the Iranian regime’s attempt to gain dominance in the Middle East.
According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, the White House and Pentagon are considering several plans to reduce its nuclear stockpile. The plans have not been presented to President Obama yet, but he will in the near future. The United States is currently under treaty obligations that require it to reduce the nuclear stockpile from the current 1,800 to 1,550 by 2018. However, the Obama administration is considering three plans to reduce this number further. The first plan calls for a moderate reduction in nuclear warheads which would leave between 1,000 and 1,100 intact. The second would reduce the number to around 700. The final, and most drastic, would reduce the U.S. nuclear stockpile to between 300 and 400 weapons.
The future of the War in Afghanistan became more complex on 1 February when Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced that the U.S. would end its combat role early by summer 2013. This significant development means that the counter-insurgency campaign that NATO is fighting will rely heavily on Afghan National Forces to control Afghan territory. The fate of the mission against the Al-Qaeda/Taliban forces and the stability of Afghanistan is depending on the success of this transition.
On February 2nd, 2012, spokesman for the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Col. Marcelo Burgos, announced that due to an evening air strike, several leaders of the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group had been killed. This group has been the cause of fear and disturbance in the southern islands of the Philippines for almost 30 years. The group has been known for its bombings, kidnappings, and killings. The group defines itself as an Islamic Separtist cult that is seeking an independent Iranian-style Islamic theocracy in the southern Philippines. With the recurring Abu Sayyaf threat, this air strike serves as a monumental victory for the Armed Forces in their fight against terrorism.
Recently the European Union has been building up to the implementation of “crippling” new sanctions against the government of Iran. These new sanctions were finally revealed on January 23 and their primary focus is on limiting Iran’s oil export capability. Despite the strong rhetoric, these sanctions will not truly be effective in the short-term as they bar only new oil contracts with Iran while honoring current contracts until 1 July. Why are we seeing this apparent weakening of the economic hammer against Iran? Why not simply crush Iran into submission and force them into immediate negotiations? The basic answer is that the West is not capable of dealing effectively with Iran right now and needs more time to prepare.
This past week marked a monumental step for the United States’ presence in the Middle East. From an airport in Baghdad, the closing ceremonies of the U.S. war in Iraq were held. There was no celebration, just a simple ceremony and then it was over. Just a few hundred miles away, however, a new chapter opened. A top secret U.S. drone, called the RQ-170, was captured nearly 140 miles into Iran. Iranian officials were not pleased about the incident and have demanded an apology from President Obama before they are willing to return the highly valuable piece of military equipment. With troops finally exiting Iraq, but tensions rising in Iran, the question must be asked: Is the United States really done in the Middle East? And if not, what does the future hold?
A good article, but moving forward, where does that leave us? It is well known that Pakistan has developed nuclear weapons, what is unknown is how many they have. After we disown them, is there any advantage other than not having to hear them whine? Unless we invade Pakistan like we did Afghanistan, no positive change will happen. Here is my case:
On November 26, 2011 the Pakistani government was found red with anger after a series of strikes from a NATO aircraft killed at least 25 soldiers at the northwestern border with Afghanistan. The supreme army commander of Pakistan called the attacks unprovoked, but the Afghan security officers said that they were involved in a nighttime raid of a supposed Taliban hideout when they came under fire and responded.
Your discussion of the way drones shape the way we fight is, I think, quite cogent. It is a new option, a shiny new toy, and one for which our generals may have been searching out opportunities to deploy. I would add another point. Not only do drones allow us to strike enemies and effect change, but they also may provide a way and potential tendency for the government to involve itself more deeply without alerting the public. The government has always been able to send in small strike teams, but those tend to work on a shorter, more limited basis. The example of this idea, of course, is Yemen, where Bush, and then Obama, have waged a secret CIA war with drones. While the CIA by itself is quite capable, unmanned drones give them a ready-made air force and increase their capability to make what amounts to war. I predict that the availability of drones and other, similar technologies will decrease the amount of information the public knows about.
Aaron French’s article on the security implications of the obesity epidemic in the United States is insightful and deals with a truly fundamental issue in national preparedness. It was ever thus. We don’t often think of it in those terms, America’s “greatest generation” of the 1940’s faced similar challenges, though for much different reasons, and that in itself may increase our concern.
Michael Slawson, in his article “Gitmo: It’s Not Even Over When We Say It’s Over,” draws a predictable but flawed conclusion in his analysis of the Obama administration’s apparent decision not to close the Detention Center. He contends that holding and interrogating detainees without legal charges and in violation of legal rights is not only bad policy but a betrayal of American values. And there’s the flaw. Like the Obama administration, and the Clinton administration before them, Slawson considers the terrorist-detainees at Guantanamo Bay criminals when in fact they are prisoners of war.
April 3, 2021, brought shocking news of the arrest of top Jordanian officials for “security reasons,” including former finance minister Bassam Awadallah and Prince Hassan bin Zaid. Prince Hamzeh, son of the late King Hussein’s fourth wife and half-brother of current King Abdullah II, was also placed under house arrest, allegedly for “actions targeting Jordan’s security.” Jordan’s government quickly called it an attempted coup, backed by unspecified “foreign entities” threatening to destabilize the kingdom.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Ireland soon found itself in a civil war, fighting for independence from England. This civil war lasted in two main phases from 1912 to 1923. The first phase, the Irish War of Independence, lasted from 1919 to 1921 and the second phase, the Irish Civil War, lasted from 1922-1923.4 Ultimately Ireland was defeated but Britain agreed to split Ireland into two; Northern Ireland remained a part of the United Kingdom and under British control, and Ireland (the southern portion of the island) became a free state. At the beginning of the civil war the Irish Volunteers renamed themselves the Irish Republican Army and served as the militant branch of the rebel government. In 1921 the government signed a treaty with England known as the Anglo-Irish Treaty, which temporarily established peace and an Irish Free state. After the signing of the treaty the IRA experienced its first of many secessions, the IRA split into two different groups: Pro-Treaty IRA and Anti-Treaty IRA.4 Following the Irish Civil War and the establishment of Ireland as its own republic, many members of the Anti-Treaty IRA were killed or captured and the remaining went underground and the IRA was once again a single organization.4
Monthly Archives: July 2019
The constant tumult in Sudan is keeping the international community on its toes. After months of protesting and violence, the military overthrew President Omar al-Bashir in April of this year and established a transitional military council. The TMC declared there would be a two-year transitional period after which the state would hold elections. Pro-democracy protests continued as demonstrators called for a civilian-led transitional body, citing that the TMC was no better than the previous regime they had fought to remove. On June 3, the TMC massacred hundreds of protestors and instituted an internet black out worse than any during al-Bashir’s rule. After another mass protest on June 30, the TMC and the civilian opposition began negotiating with the help of envoys from Ethiopia and the African Union. These negotiations led to an agreement on a joint sovereign council comprised of eleven members: five military, five civilian, and an unknown eleventh member. This council would govern for three years while organizing elections. The military will rule for the first 21 months, and the civilian government will assume control for the next 18 months. On Thursday, Sudan was rocked by another military coup, an attempt that was shortly foiled by security forces. Skeptics say the coup was fabricated by the military in order to pressure the civilian opposition group into signing the deal. This constant political flux works in the military’s favor, leaving civilians at a disadvantage at the negotiating table.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
With talks currently in place between the two countries in preparation for further integration, it is important to understand how both Russia and Belarus got to this point in their somewhat strained relationship. Looking at the two countries from a westerner’s perspective, one might think that the two countries have always been allied forces with a one-track mind, but when you dig a little deeper you may find that appearances aren’t always true to what is really going on underneath.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Until recently, the relationship between the United States and Turkey has been stable. Lately however, Turkey has been taking actions contrary to those that would uphold strong relations with the US. This recent unnerving trend has increased tensions between the two countries and tightened Turkish ties to Russia.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Russian investigative journalist Ivan Golunov was on his way to meet a source for his latest article on June 6 when he was detained by the police. They took him into custody after finding mephedrone, an illegal designer drug, in his backpack. When Golunov appeared in court two days later, his charges had increased from drug possession to drug trafficking, potentially a 10- to 20-year sentence, after the court accused him of having a drug lab in his apartment (Hodge, Nathan). Some, however, weren’t buying it. None of Golunov’s friends had ever as much as seen him drink alcohol, let alone get high, and people familiar with his apartment confirmed that the pictures authorities had shared of the drug lab couldn’t be anywhere near it (Kovalev, Alexey).
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Russia has a long history of cyber warfare. InvestigateRussia.org lists several of the important cyberattacks fueled by Russia during the 21st century. The Committee to Investigate Russia is a non-profit organization that worked during the Robert Mueller investigation as an aggregation of news pertaining to Russia’s affiliation with the US, and while no longer active still exists as culmination of information having to do with post-Soviet Russia.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Thousands of protesters took to the streets after Russian lawmaker Sergei Gavrilov, deputy of the Russian State Duma, sat in the Georgian parliamentary speaker’s seat and addressed the audience in Russian. Gavrilov was there as president of the Interparliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy (IAO), “a body set up by the Greek parliament in 1993 to foster relationships between Christian Orthodox lawmakers” (Antidze). Protests cut IAO meetings short.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
The subject of marijuana growth, distribution and use has been a hot topic in our society today. There are many arguments both for and against the legalization of marijuana in the United States on a federal scale and ideas on how to monitor and tax marijuana that is legal in certain states. When observing cannabis policy debates among our politicians and leaders the focus is on home-grown cannabis and cannabis produced and transported to the United States from Mexico; small Caribbean islands are hardly on anyone’s mind.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Tensions and violence in Ireland have existed for as long as it’s been populated. Ireland has been inhabited since 6,000 BC and has been the home of the Celts since 500 BC. In 300 AD, Ireland was introduced to Christianity and soon after the Catholic Church sent missionaries to organize an Irish Church; circa 600 AD, Catholicism became the country’s national religion.1
Monthly Archives: July 2019
In early June, Washington issued an ultimatum to Turkey urging the country to reconsider its decision to buy the Russian S-400 air defense system. The Turkish Ministry of Defense acknowledged the ultimatum on June 8, two days after it was reported in the media (Kurt 2019). At that time, Turkey was informed that if the deal to purchase the S-400 from Russia continued, all Turkish personnel training with the American F-35 fighter planes would be required to cease training and leave American soil by July 31 (Marcus 2019). By June 6, Washington had already announced that it would stop accepting new Turkish pilots into the program for training on the F-35 (Stewart 2019).
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Kim Jong-Un’s 2017 threat to “bring nuclear clouds to the Japanese archipelago”[1] shocked the world and forced Japan to recognize that their small, North Korean neighbor was a significant threat to the safety of their country, and they meant business. Though North Korean missile tests began as early as 1993, fears of an aggressive North Korea have only grown as they have advanced their military capabilities, even showing that they had the capability of striking as far as the United States in 2017. Recent tests in May of 2019 have shown that North Korea is not content with their arsenal and is willing to use force to achieve their goals. This is especially troubling for Japan, who is one of North Korea’s closest neighbors, and has little of its own military power. Their proximity and history of conflict and grievances puts a target on the back of the Japanese for North Korean aggression.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
What are the implications of the current “trade war” between the United States and China? Where will the continuing negotiations lead each of these countries in their development, and relationships with one another as the top two-producing countries in the world?
Monthly Archives: July 2019
The Saudi-led coalition purchases most of its arms from the United States and United Kingdom, while weaponry for the Houthi rebels is smuggled almost entirely from Iran.
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Since December, the streets of Sudan have been filled with tens of thousands of peaceful protestors (Abdulbari). These demonstrations began over cuts to bread and fuel subsidies, but quickly turned to calls for the overthrow of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, whose 30-year rule has been marked by a deteriorating economy, rapidly increasing inflation, and widespread corruption (“Sudan’s inflation…”). In January, security forces in Khartoum began firing tear gas, stun grenades, and live ammunition at protestors gathered at sit-ins in an attempt to quell protests (Lewis). Over 1,000 have been detained since the beginning of the demonstrations (“Sudan’s Omar…”).
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Kazakhstan held elections on June 9. For the first time in the former Soviet country’s history, the ballot did not include Nursultan Nazarbayev, who reigned as president since Kazakhstan’s 1991 creation. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev won the election with 70.9% of the vote. Amirzhan Kossanov, the main opposition candidate, came in a distant second at 16.2%, and Daniya Yespayeva, Kazakhstan’s first female presidential candidate, came in third at 5.05% (Vesterbye).
Monthly Archives: June 2019
It can be difficult to determine what the United States has to gain from involving itself in the Yemeni Civil War. The humanitarian crisis and the unsuccessful Saudi and Emirati attempts to defeat the Houthis have convinced some analysts that further American engagement in the war is unnecessary and even counterproductive. What, then, might Yemen have to do with the interests of the United States? There are two primary interests: limiting the Iranian threat and solving the country’s humanitarian crisis.
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Though it continually denies any substantial involvement in the Yemeni Civil War, Iran’s support for Houthi rebels has been visible to the international community since the Arab Spring.
Monthly Archives: June 2019
“Indian Muslims hold a scratched photo of Jaish-e-Mohammad group chief, Masood Azhar, who was added to a UN sanctions list on Wednesday” (Gupta 2019)
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Image of the church that was bombed on Mindanao. (Holcombe, Madeline; Simonette, Virma. 2019).
Monthly Archives: June 2019
The United States faces an enduring and potent threat from the Islamic State (ISIS hereafter) terrorist group. Any decrease in efforts to dismantle both the group and its ideology worldwide is likely to grant the group the minimal operational space and security it needs to reorganize, rearm, recruit, and attack.
Monthly Archives: June 2019
The Yemeni Civil War, which started as a conflict between President Abdrabbuh Munsar Hadi’s government and Houthi revolutionaries, has become a magnet for external actors from around the world. A Saudi-led coalition consisting of the United States, France, and other countries supports Hadi’s government, while Iran backs the Houthi rebels. Nations representing both sides have poured billions of dollars of resources and thousands of men and women into the conflict, but recent findings have begun to reveal that there is another type of actor which is extraordinarily prominent: foreign mercenaries (Isenberg 2018).
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Eleven reporters from Kommersant quit on May 20 after two of their colleagues were fired for refusing to reveal their sources in a report about “a possible change of leadership in the upper chamber of parliament” (RFE/RL). These reporters made up the entire political staff at Kommersant, one of Russia’s most prominent newspapers. Another 180 staff signed a joint letter that denounced the newspaper’s shareholders for “destroying one of Russia’s best media outlets” to make “short-term political gains” and “that until further notice, Kommersant would not report on any Russian political news” (“HRW: Kommersant Shake-Up…”, Soric).
Monthly Archives: June 2019
The Algerian presidential elections have been in a state of flux since the beginning of 2019. Initially former president Abdelaziz Bouteflika intended to run for reelection to a fifth term in office, but amid an outpouring of protests at this prospect due to allegations of corruption he withdrew his reelection bid and postponed the election as a result. The election was originally scheduled for April 18, 2019 has been rescheduled for July 4th (“Alegeria sets presidential…”). Shortly after announcing he would not seek a fifth term Bouteflika resigned as president leaving the head of the Council of the Nation (Algeria’s upper house of parliament), Abdelkader Bensalah, to be acting head of state. Bensalah is not able to participate as a candidate in the election under Algerian law (“Algerian Constitutional Council…”).
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Australia has long since been a crucial ally with the United States. As a right-leaning politician, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is likely to uphold stability and economic prosperity in Australia. Morrison’s election was a surprise win in Australia as the country faces extreme drought and the destruction of it’s Great Barrier Reef due to climate change. Voters were expected to upset the status quo and seek reformations for these causes, however with Morrison’s win, issues like climate change are not likely to be a high priority.
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Narendra Modi, prime minister of India since 2014, won this year’s election by a landslide last Thursday (Das, 2019). His party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept parliament, securing a majority with 303 seats (Ayres, 2019). This victory follows a campaign focused on national security, Hindu-first rhetoric, and a promise to be “tough on Pakistan” (Ayres, 2019; Schmall, 2019). Tensions between the two countries remain high since the February bombing in Kashmir and subsequent military skirmish. In the last days of the election, Pakistan revealed that it had successfully tested the Shaheen II, a medium-range ballistic missile able to carry both conventional and nuclear warheads up to 1,500 kilometers (ISPR, 2019). While all South Asian leaders were invited to Modi’s 2014 inauguration, this year Imran Khan has been excluded, suggesting that tensions between the two nations will not resolve any time soon (Madan, 2019).
Monthly Archives: May 2019
In a surprise move on March 19, Nursultan Nazarbayev stepped down as Kazakhstan’s president, a position he held for nearly 19 years. He declared as interim president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, “a longtime diplomat who was speaker of the upper house of parliament, the Senate” (“Kazakh Ruling Party…”). Nazarbayev’s resignation left a hole in Kazakhstan’s political structure which its people have never had the opportunity to fill, as he the only leader Kazakhstan has known as an independent country (“Kazakh Ruling Party”).
Monthly Archives: May 2019
Beginning in February 2019, Algeria played host to months of fierce protesting over wheelchair-bound President Bouteflika’s bid for re-election that was scheduled to take place in April. The election was subsequently postponed by interim President Bensalah to July 4th. Speculation has been rife in Algeria as well as the foreign media as to whether the election will indicate a maintaining of the status quo or an overhaul of the entire Algerian political system.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
American interests in Yemen are currently centered around limiting Iranian influence, ensuring safe oil transit, and maintaining the security of Saudi Arabia. Secondary interests include counterterrorism, human rights, and overall stability in the Middle East. A brief look at the history of US-Yemeni relations will show how these interests have evolved.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
Recent developments in diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia have greatly impacted the nature of arms control in the two nuclear giants. Historically guided by various treaties, including the START, SALT, and INF agreements, nuclear tension has increased as the 2019 withdrawal from the INF Treaty by both Russia and the US has opened the door to expanded proliferation.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
Russia and the US are the world’s top two possessors of nuclear weapons, holding 92 percent of nuclear weapons globally (Ploughshares Fund). Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal and some of its modernizations, such as the SSC-8 ground-launched cruise missile system, led the US to plan an exit from the INF Treaty in August 2019.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
On April 30th, skirmishes erupted in Venezuela between anti-government protests and law enforcement officers as Juan Guaidó called for the population to rise up against Nicolás Maduro. Since this incident, many analysts are attempting to establish the role played by General Manuel Ricardo Christopher Figuera, who was the acting head of Venezuela’s secret police. Figuera was known for many years as a “diehard Chavist loyalist.”[1] However, his name was mentioned in several local Venezuelan media reports as being a leader in the uprising. After the uprising, Figuera is credited to writing a letter on the afternoon of April 30th. This was quoted by Venezuelan news website Efecto Cocuyo, and began with Figuera’s allegiance to Maduro as his, “commander in chief”[2]. However, it later says that, “the state of disrepair in which the Fatherland is submerged is not a secret for anybody, and it would be irresponsible of me to blame only the North American empire [US]”[3]. This simultaneous approval of Maduro and disapproval of Maduro’s government has caused much consternation as to Figueras true allegiance.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
In late April, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a meeting with leaders of countries involved with the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI. Included in the meeting were more than 1,500 delegates and 40 heads of state. Jinping promised another $440 billion to continue building infrastructure. As of now, 126 countries have endorsed the BRI, the most recent of them being Italy, an EU nation and member of the G7 (2019. The road ahead for China’s BRI partners; China’s Marshall Plan.).
Monthly Archives: May 2019
Government of Pakistan: Information Report
Monthly Archives: May 2019
On April 11, Russia announced that the RS-28 Sarmat missile reached its final testing phase (TASS, “Putin: Russia’s ICBM…”). The missile, an upgrade of the SS-18, is set to start production in 2021. Nicknamed “Satan 2” by NATO, it “has practically no range restrictions” and “is untroubled by even the most advanced missile defense systems” according to Putin (O’Connor).
Monthly Archives: May 2019
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, also known as Afghanistan, is located in South Central Asia. The government of Afghanistan consists of the President, council of ministers, provincial governors and the national assembly. According to the 2004 constitution, “Afghanistan shall be an Islamic Republic, independent, unitary and indivisible state” (Olam). To fulfill this constitution, Afghanistan’s government has three branches comprising of the Executive, Judicial, and Legislative branches.
Monthly Archives: April 2019
Ranked last out of 180 countries in The Heritage Foundation’s 2019 Index of Economic Freedom and with a GDP per capita of a meager $2000, North Korea has one of the world’s poorest economies.[1] Still, North Korea has captured international attention for decades and especially in the last 5 years as erratic steps towards nuclear operationalization have been taken. With a denuclearization summit between the United States and North Korea cut short in Hanoi last February, and a South Korea- United States summit planned to take place in DC in April, the future of the Korean Peninsula is at a critical turning-point.[2] A review of the economic situation in the North will shed light on current moves and potential next steps of the Kim regime.
Monthly Archives: April 2019
As for the prospects of the presidential race, initial reports at the end of 2018 had Tymoshenko at the top of the pool of candidates. She began making inroads with many foreign leaders, stating via Facebook that “The presidential election is approaching, and it would be irrational for a newly elected president to use up their precious work hours on building bridges and establishing contacts when it can be done now.” However, with the emergence of Volodymyr Zelensky, an anti-establishment comedian, as a leading candidate, Tymoshenko will be forced to adjust her approach as the popular opposition candidate. The first round of elections take place on March 31st with a possible second round of elections following in April. Despite having maintained a strong lead in the polls for months, Tymoshenko has slipped into a tie with current President Poroshenko, with both trailing Zelensky by more than 5 points (Jacobsen).
Monthly Archives: April 2019
In what researchers at Oxford Internet Institute described as “the most globally advanced case of computational propaganda,” Ukraine was Europe’s most frequent target of disinformation campaigns in 2018 (Bohdanova). According to the EU vs Disinfo database, Ukraine had “461 references among a total of 1,000 disinformation cases reported in 2018” (“Ukraine Under Information Fire”). Some of these cases included Kremlin-based false reports that Ukrainian authorities planned to construct a 120 kilometer waterway that would isolate Crimea from Ukraine. Another story surfaced that US secret services and the Ukrainian government were working together to poison water in Donbas (Zoria).
Monthly Archives: April 2019
The endgame for the Taliban is relatively straightforward. They have two main objectives and are determined to meet them. Their two objectives are to get all foreign troops out of the country and to implement Sharia law throughout all of Afghanistan. They will continue to wage terror on US troops and the Afghan people until these objectives are met.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
ISIS affiliates flourish in regions plagued by weak governance, porous borders, and inept security force (Intel Brief, 2019). Affiliates are geographically dispersed and vary in capability; some are akin to terrorist groups, while others behave like insurgent groups (Intel Brief, 2019).
Monthly Archives: March 2019
The Islamic State’s use of social media has evolved over the past few years to attract more members. ISIS quickly built a brand on social media with tens of thousands of followers (DiResta, 2018). The organization’s strategic use of social media demonstrates the resourcefulness of the terrorist organization (Ward, 2018). Over time, ISIS maximized its reach through several social media platforms (Koerner, 2017). ISIS has been repeatedly the most adept terrorist group at using Internet and social media propaganda to recruit new members (Alfifi, Kaghazgaran, Morstatter). As ISIS continues to lose territory, they have adapted their use of social media to maintain power (Ward, 2018). Rather than calling followers to the front lines, ISIS’s social media strategy cultivates them at home in the United States, Europe, Africa, and Asia (Singer, Emerson, 2015). Social media has given terrorists the ability to directly come into contact with their target audience and either spread terror or recruit (Alfifi, Kaghazgaran, Morstatter).
Monthly Archives: March 2019
North Korean Nuclear Weapons Capabilities
Monthly Archives: March 2019
The South China Sea dispute represents a crisis not only for the United States, but to many other countries in the region as well. Many countries are right in their desire to have a piece of the Sea since there is an abundance of oil, natural gas, and fishing resources. From a US perspective, the South China Sea dispute is of national importance. The US is allied with the Philippines (which make claim of parts of the Sea), keeping international shipping lanes open is of critical importance economically, and being able to maneuver militarily in the Sea is a priority.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
On March 31, Ukrainians will head to the polls to elect their next president. Leading the candidates are incumbent Petro Poroshenko, former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and newcomer to the political field, comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who are polling within 10 percentage points of each other.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
There are a number of missile bases in North Korea that have not been located. Although there is a fair amount of knowledge available through open sources about North Korea’s weapons programs, it is rather difficult to detect missile bases that have not already been exposed (Davenport, Kelsey. 2019). It is estimated that there are 20 or more missile bases that are unregistered, with only 13 being discovered so far. This estimate was arrived at through interviewing North Korean defectors. It is imperative that these bases be located in case of further provocations.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a massive economic investment from China into the infrastructure of Pakistan. While China has hopes for fiscal gain from the endeavor, it could also prove economically and politically crucial for Pakistan. The added economic stability could be the strength that Pakistan needs to begin tackling the host of problems that plague their country. The project could also very well shape their future foreign policies, along with altering U.S.- Pakistani relations.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
As China’s economic growth slows, it is taking drastic steps to correct its trajectory. China is just a few steps into what is becoming a massive investment program called the Belt and Road initiative that will include over four trillion dollars in investment over the course of three decades throughout many countries across the Eurasia region. It is, in many ways, an attempt to economically link the region together in order to ensure China’s economic future– the project will create an infrastructure which China and Chinese companies can use to trade and invest across Europe and Asia. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a regional capstone of sorts for the project. It is China’s massive investment into Pakistan. The details of how this investment is carried out could be the determining factor of Pakistan’s economic future and stability, though corruption poses serious concerns in its procession.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
The U.S. and Colombia have had a strong relationship for much of Colombia’s 200-year history due to Colombia being one of the oldest democracies in Latin America. Known for having a past full of terrorism from infamous drug cartels, Colombia has reinvented itself and today has a stable democracy. The U.S. has a history of sending aide and assisting Colombia in its efforts to eradicate drug trafficking. From this past relationship of fighting narcotrafficking the U.S. and Colombia have come to share similar ideals such as supporting democratic governance, promoting security, and creating economic opportunities for all people (State, 2018). Sharing these ideals has also led to free trade agreements, becoming members of the same international organizations and U.S. assistance to Colombia that is more than just eradicating narcotrafficking (State, 2018). Recently the U.S. and Colombian relationships have come into the limelight. With meetings between the two countries leaders and representatives in January and February.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Prospects for continued peace talks in the near future are not promising given the abrupt ending and confusing aftermath of the February 27-28 Hanoi Summit. U.S. and DPRK blame each other for the premature conclusion but tell the same story: The U.S. walked out rather than accept a deal that gave sweeping sanctions relief for the dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor but, in Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s words, “still leaves missiles, still leaves warheads and weapons systems.” While it’s not the outcome world leaders were hoping for, it didn’t come as a surprise to US Intelligence officials who have dealt with North Korea’s unwillingness to give up their nuclear program in the past.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Putin proved a major influencer in the US presidential election in 2016. Russian influence on the election first appeared four years before the actual election, when two Russians, working for the Internet Research Agency, acquired knowledge about US social media to help provide information to the Russian propaganda machine (Shane, Scott; Mazzetti, Mark. 2018). Additionally, his Russian spy agency, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) hacked the Democratic National Committee’s network to further reach his goal of getting Americans to vote for the candidate he wanted to see win.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Russia is a longtime ally of Syria, with relations dating back to the 1970s Soviet Union (Rahman-Jones). In 2015, Russia began supporting the Assad regime with weapons, air support, and ground troops. While Russian President Vladimir Putin claims the goal of Russia’s action in Syria is to fight terrorism, the US-led coalition claims Russian airstrikes have targeted “the non-IS rebel forces battling Assad’s government,” which the US supports militarily (Ahmado). By supporting opposing sides, the US and Russia have been fighting a proxy war in Syria.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Fighting Fernando Haddad for the Presidency, Jair Bolsonaro won the presidency of Brazil and has filled that office since January. His election surprised many Brazilians and outsiders. Judged as a homophobic, misogynist, and a no-nonsense speaker, he is strongly allied with President Trump on many issues (Carneiro, Julia; Fagundez, Ingrid. 2019). In recent years, Brazil has been suffering from major corruption problems in the government. Bolsonaro claims that he will fix these problems, and echoing Trump’s campaign slogan, Bolsonaro promises to make Brazil ‘great again’. Bolsonaro wants to put the ‘old’ Brazil behind him and build Brazil up into a powerful country. As Bolsonaro competes with China, moves its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and exits the Paris climate agreement, the government of Brazil will likely find favor with the White House, and economic and political ties will be greatly strengthened. Brazil will expectedly become a strong base for US foreign policy to proliferate throughout South America.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
In 1934 U.S. forces left the country of Nicaragua after a period of guerrilla warfare waged by opposition leader Augusto CŽsar Sandino. As they left the U.S. put Anastasio Somoza in charge and 44 years of a terrible dictatorship backed by the U.S. began. The Somoza family kept power until the civil war in 1978. The Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), a group named after the legendary Augusto CŽsar Sandino, led a movement to oust the Somoza family. Nicaragua chose to create a democracy and in 1984 a man with socialist ideas and dreams named Daniel Ortega was elected president. Unfortunately, during his presidency inflation soared and the U.S. fueled an opposition group of anti-Sandinistas. Daniel Ortega was defeated in the 1990 election, but his FSLN party would make a comeback and reelect him in the 2006 election.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Background of US-EU Relations Regarding Iran
Monthly Archives: February 2019
In 2013, under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS began to study the West’s media so they could understand how best to mimic its methods of persuasion (Koerner, 2017). About a year later, in 2014, ISIS’s use of social media started, when they systematically leveraged technology and operated like a digital marketing team (DiResta, 2018). ISIS quickly built a brand on social media with tens of thousands of followers (How ISIS). Abu Musab al-Zarqawai, an ISIS leader, believed that they were “…in a media battle in a race for the hearts and minds of our Umma [Muslim people]” (Koerner, 2017). The organization’s strategic use of social media demonstrates the resourcefulness of the terrorist organization, which recruited an estimated 40,000 foreign nationals from 110 countries (Ward, 2018).
Monthly Archives: February 2019
The United States’ plan for withdrawal from Syria creates danger for U.S. Kurdish allies as well as U.S. dominance in the region. Recently U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish militia the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) pushed the remaining proto-military ISIS fighters out of their last remaining stronghold in the village of Baghouz into one square kilometer (Al Jazeera 2019 “US-backed”).
Monthly Archives: February 2019
Russia has played the role of mediator between North and South Korea and has a “relatively equal relationship” with both countries (Economy). Other countries involved in North Korea, such as the United States, China, and Japan, align more closely with one country or the other. In its relations with both countries, Russia demonstrates that it does not want the US involved in these security issues, encouraging “inter-Korean diplomacy” to end the dispute. Russia demanded that South Korea reject the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system and urged North Korea to “refrain from provocative actions,” declaring North Korea’s nuclear system a “threat to security in North-east Asia” (Economy).
Monthly Archives: February 2019
By Guest Author, Emil Avdaliani, PhD - Professor of International Relations and History at Tbilisi State University
Monthly Archives: February 2019
In the late 1970s, Venezuela thrived economically thanks to high oil prices, which allowed it to be one of the most prosperous countries in South America. Then came an oil crisis in the 1980s that significantly raised inflation. The economy continued to suffer throughout the 1990s. In 1992, Major Hugo Chavez attempted to stage a coup d’état which ultimately failed.In 1998, he was elected president after promising to reform the government and answer the needs of the people. One of his first acts as President of Venezuela was to rewrite the Venezuelan Constitution, which consolidated power in the Executive Office. The early 2000s saw Venezuela receiving vast amounts of equity as oil prices soared once again. Hugo Chavez took some of the wealth, and the other part went into paying foreign debts; however, not much went into infrastructure or the people. By March 2013, President Hugo Chavez was nearing death from cancer. One of his last appearances as president was speaking directly to the Venezuelan people to ask them to elect his newly appointed Vice President and former Foreign Minister, Nicolas Maduro. Nicolas Maduro was elected in April 2013 by an extremely narrow margin. Since his election, Maduro has had a difficult time. The economic situation his government inherited has been in a slow decline since 2010 when oil prices began to drop. Almost 90% of Venezuela’s foreign income is from oil. Even though it boasts the biggest reserve of oil in the world, in recent years it has seen a decline. One reason for this decline was the nationalization of the oil industry. He did not improve machinery, infrastructure, or employee training and conditions. In January 2016, Venezuela produced 2.3 million barrels a day, which dropped to 1.6 million barrels a day in January 2018. Production of oil continues to drop and as a result, almost 3 million Venezuelans have fled the country for lack of employment. In 2016, the country had 70 operating oil rigs which has now dropped to only 43 operating rigs. In 2018 alone, as the nation was hurting for funds, Maduro reportedly sold 40% of the nation’s gold reserves. He also implemented a cryptocurrency called petro which is tied to the Venezuelan oil industry. Petro was introduced to spur investment into the country’s oil reserves and supplement its national currency.
Monthly Archives: February 2019
One of the most persistent threats facing the world in the 21st century is the rise of human trafficking as a major form of criminal exploitation. Not only is this issue found worldwide, it is also a growing problem in the Middle East, especially as it combines with the impact of conflict and the rising refugee streams trying to reach Europe.
Monthly Archives: February 2019
Muslim and Hindu conflicts have spanned the course of India since its independence. The conflicts have historically flared in parallel with increased tensions between Pakistan and India. Presently, Hindu/Muslim relations are the worst that they have been in decades. The current tensions are related strongly to increased Indo/Pakistani conflicts, particularly centering around the Jammu/Kashmir region, and anti-Muslim rhetoric from leading political parties and leaders, especially surrounding Muslim refugees pouring into India.
Monthly Archives: February 2019
After the death of Muhammar Ghaddafi and the subsequent end of the Libyan Jamahiriya, Libya’s transitional government has since crumbled into a multifaceted conflict with different political groups vying for power and influence over potent oil fields. The General National Congress (GNC) took control over Libya after the death of Ghaddafi as a representative assembly. Internal fragmentation in the GNC precluded agreements on political issues and was unable to withstand several other warring factions. Several former political officials fled Tripoli (and the GNC) to Tobruk, a city on the eastern border of Libya, and established a second parliament known as the House of Representatives. The Libyan National Army (LNA), headed by Khalifa Haftar, is recognized as a quasi-military unit, comprised of trained military officials alongside tribal and regional groups of soldiers. The LNA is not recognized by the GNC as a military force; instead, the GNC recognizes Haftar as an agitator and a “warlord”. In addition to the two existing governments and the LNA, Islamic fundamentalist groups loyal to ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood exist throughout the state and commit various terrorist acts and beheadings.
Monthly Archives: February 2019
Economic and Political Ties Between Russia and Venezuela
Monthly Archives: February 2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to stabilize Syria’s Idlib province against Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) growing aggression and territorial expansion struggles to be implemented (Russia: Deal 2019; Russia, Turkey 2019). Turkey and Russia planned for a de-escalation zone in Syria’s Idlib, where aggression is prohibited, so Syrian displaced peoples are allowed to return home. However HTS filled the power vacuum in the absence of state aggression. HTS now attempts to penetrate Aleppo from the Idlib province, which threatens the demilitarization deal between Turkey and Russia (Karaspan 2018).
Monthly Archives: February 2019
With the disruption that the Rohingya crisis has created, the Islamic State (IS) has taken advantage over the degraded situation and has been exploiting the crisis. In July of 2016, IS carried out an attack in the capital of Myanmar, Dhaka, in which twenty civilians, mostly foreigners, were killed (Bashar, 2017). Although counter-terrorism (CT) operations continue in Myanmar, IS and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) seem to be attracting more recruits. This is evident by the increasing amount of young men that go missing, which is likely a result of them joining extremist groups. With an increase in the ranks of extremist groups, attacks by IS, AQIS, and other extremist groups are imminent. AQIS itself has already carried out dozens of targeted killings in Myanmar. Additionally, according to a high value target (HVT) that was arrested, IS has sent at least two individuals to India to gain additional experience and knowledge of how to make improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
Monthly Archives: January 2019
The conflict in Ukraine is very important to American, NATO, and Russian security. Russia has been testing its limits by annexing Crimea in 2014 and then by participating in the Ukrainian conflict. With sanctions affecting the Russian economy, Russia is using different tools to circumnavigate the sanctions by using China. With Russian forces in Syria fighting extremists, and with Russian involvement in Ukraine, Russia is able to use these conflicts as leverage against the United States.
Monthly Archives: January 2019
The People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (Mojahedin-e Khalq), otherwise referred to as MEK, is a left-wing resistance party that aims to overthrow the current Iranian ruling regime. Born from various factions of dissident Iranian students in Tehran, the MEK has operated since the 1960s in various locations throughout Southwest Asia and, most recently, Europe. The group’s name, Mujahedin-e Khalq, roughly translates from Persian (Farsi) into “the People’s Holy Warriors.” With this notion, the MEK has consistently operated against the Iranian government to promote its often liberal-democratic agenda (Goulka 2).
Monthly Archives: January 2019
The recent election in Venezuela has left the country in even more disarray than it was already in. President Nicolas Maduro was elected to serve a second six-year term as president. The people of Venezuela and many other countries have claimed that the election was a sham and unjust. The main opposition said it would refuse to run against Maduro because they knew the election would be staged. Stating that the government decided to move the election from its scheduled time in December, all the way to May so that they would have an advantage. The government saw it as an easy win in May because most of the oppositions political figures were banned from running for office, jailed, or had fled the country. Luckily for the government one opposer decided to run for the presidency, Henri Falcón. Making the election look like a far race, but right after the election Henri called it rigged an unfair. Because a starving country was promised food if it voted for Maduro. The elections had a 48% turnout at the polls. Which was down from the 80% at the previous 2013 election. Many experts are also saying that the 48% is inflated with the actual turnout being more around 30%. The Venezuelan CNE is supposed to govern the election independent of the government but four of its five seats are supposedly filled with Maduros puppets. With So many issues and red flags going on in a country in turmoil what are the implications of such events?
Monthly Archives: January 2019
One of the most persistent and enduring enemies of the United States is the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Formed in 1979 following mass protests against the repressive, U.S.-backed Shah, Iran’s government has proven itself to be a significant threat to both the US and its allies in the region (particularly the Sunni-dominated countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Israel). Moreover, the ideological underpinnings of the Islamic Republic, its strategic concerns, and its perennial drive to export its revolution using malicious proxies continue to influence its foreign policy (Hilal 2017; Central Intelligence Agency 1980; International Crisis Group 2018; Nasr 2007, 143).
Monthly Archives: January 2019
Recent protests in Sudan have called to see the end of the 30-year military dictatorship of President Omar al-Bashir (Mampilly 2018). Protests began in December 2018 in Atbara and Khartoum and have continued almost daily against the President, demanding his resignation and the establishment of national democratic elections (al-Jazeera News 2019). Minister Ahmed Bilal Osman stated that the country has “experienced 381 protests since 18 December…[t]he total number of protesters arrested until now is 816” (NightWatch 2019). Since South Sudan declared independence in 2011, the country has plunged into the worst economic crisis in the nation’s history. Devaluation of currency, shortage of cash, severe inflation, high food prices, and gas shortages are among the primary motivations for a change in leadership.
Monthly Archives: January 2019
Pakistan and India have been disputing over the Kashmir region since 1947. Currently India controls approximately 45% of the region, Pakistan controls some 35%, and China controls about 20% (Hunt). The main disputes and hot conflicts, however, have remained between India and Pakistan, with 3 wars and numerous conflicts since 1947. This conflict is often neglected when considering national security, but poses a potential serious issue to the US. The United States maintains bilateral relationships with both countries, and war between them could pose a diplomatic disaster.
Monthly Archives: January 2019
Syrian Islamist terrorist group Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) continues to push its territorial expansion campaign from the Idlib province into Aleppo and the surrounding area controlled by the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front (NLF). Increasing aggression from HTS warns of more conflict not only for civilians and Turkey, but also challenges the Idlibdemilitarization deal between Turkey, Iran, the Syrian government, and Russia.
Monthly Archives: December 2018
This week, a member of the notorious Central American gang MS-13 was apprehended trying to cross the border into the US with the migrant caravan. This has sparked a resurgence of the dialogue about the presence and danger MS-13 poses to the United States. One of the key points crucial to understanding MS-13 is that it is not an organized group as the mob or drug cartels are. MS-13 has become more of a methodology or ideology for gang members. There is no evidence of any sort of hierarchy within the gang. Where the gang exists, the hierarchy is very localized and most violence is committed against other gang members, defectors, and any others who openly oppose them or resist joining them.
Monthly Archives: December 2018
On December 4, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced plans to exit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 60 days, citing Russian noncompliance. If Russia does not return “to full and verifiable compliance” by the deadline, the United States will start a six month formal withdrawal process (Borger). The treaty went into force in 1987 and bans United States and Russia from developing “ground-launched cruise missiles” with ranges between 310 and 3,400 miles (Ward). The United States posits that “for years,” Russia “developed and deployed a ground launched cruise missile system, the SSC-8, also known as the 9M729” (Erlanger and Harris). NATO allies unanimously agreed with this stance.
Monthly Archives: December 2018
The FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) traces its roots back to the 1950’s era struggle called “La Violencia.”[i] These battles were between conservative and communist factions within the country. Small communist groups banded together and adopted the FARC name in 1966. Funded largely by drug enterprises the group grew in strength and numbers throughout the 1970s.[ii] The heavy hand of FARC administration facilitated rival gangs’ establishment and led in large part to the world’s assessment of the group as a drug cartel. At its peak some 18,000 members affiliated themselves with the FARC.[iii] The group therefore wielded a hefty military power. Politically, despite multiple attempts by the government to reach peace and integrate the FARC into mainstream politics, leadership and members alike breached deals in 1984 and 1990 subverting standard political responses.[iv] The conflict continued. Due to a demilitarized zone, part of the 1990s peace process, the FARC were ceded a piece of the country roughly the size of Switzerland, and instead of looking for peaceful administration and joining talks for integration with the government, the rebels took advantage increasing the drug trade and their influence dramatically.[v] Kidnappings, drug trade, extortion, and murder were common plays by the group that seemed to hoist communism as a justification for a cartel rather than a true philosophical battle. In 2000 the United States government funded a major counternarcotic program focused on Colombia. The deal, Plan Colombia, was a behemoth operation with over a half billion-dollar annual budget. The goals were clear: reduce drug production by 50% in six years and create institutions and regain government control of all territory in Colombia.[vi] These goals were somewhat achieved as coca production decreased substantially in the first years of the plan’s operation, though the FARC remained in control of significant portions of the country.[vii] The plan, some contend, was particularly successful in developing Colombian institutions and stabilizing the government. In part due to the billions of dollars invested, Colombia is now one of the United States’ strongest partners in the region with a stable and democratic government.[viii] Overall, the FARC lost influence. The conflict overall cost some 200,000 lives and the displacement of some 7 million inhabitants.[ix] The FARC is still listed as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” by the U.S. State Department.[x] A peace deal negotiated by President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leaders in Cuba provides protections for FARC leaders and fighters alike and protects FARC participation in congress.[xi] Since integration, it appears the insurgent leaders lack a real policymaking agenda. The battle of identity and reason behind the FARC is fought both in academia and the Colombian jungle. Communist in history and in manifesto, the FARC is now having to prove itself as a legitimate philosophical revolution or suffer the judgement of history as the stain on society only a drug cartel can be.
Monthly Archives: December 2018
On November 25, Russia and Ukraine clashed in the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Though both nations use the strait, Russia blocked three Ukrainian ships’ access by placing a large cargo vessel under a Russian-controlled bridge. Russian border control ships fired on the Ukrainian ships, injuring six sailors. Russia seized two Ukrainian ships, detained twenty-four sailors, and later jailed twelve of these sailors (“Russian Court Jails…”).
Monthly Archives: November 2018
MS-13 is one of the largest and most dangerous organized crime syndicates in the
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Over the course of the last decade, China has taken an aggressive approach towards constructing an economic relationship with Africa. A major aspect of this relationship has been Chinese infrastructure investments in the continent, which provides African nations with low-conditionality access to capital. Although China’s economic activity has led to some economic growth in the region, it nonetheless represents a strategic challenge to the United States’ influence in Africa (Harris 2018). As such, the strategic efforts of the United States vis a vis Chinese investment in Africa should center on two objectives: increasing diplomatic ties with African nations and promoting American investment and trade in the region.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump shook hands briefly at the centennial World War I commemoration in Paris on November 12, 2018. They had a short discussion about Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea (“Putin says had…”). Though the leaders planned a meeting, they ultimately postponed the meeting until the Buenos Aries G20 summit on the weekend of November 30 (Jackson). Trump said he wants to discuss Russian collaboration in Syria and denuclearizing North Korea. Putin wants to discuss the recent U.S. pull out from 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and “the future of the 2011 New START arms-reduction agreement” (Jackson, “Putin: Arms control…”).
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip this past week is culminating in a series of Israeli political changes that could produce another major conflict between the two sides.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
“Mexico mothers search for mass graves after tip-off” BBC News. Nov. 6, 2018 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46110115
Monthly Archives: November 2018
On October 28, 2018, the Republic of Georgia held the first round of its final presidential election with a direct vote before transitioning to a parliamentary system. The election turned into a run-off between Salome Zurabishvili, ruling Georgian Dream party candidate, and Grigol Vashadze, candidate of former Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili’s party United National movement, each garnering 38.6 percent and 37.7 percent of the vote (De Waal). French-born Zurabishvili served as Saakashvili’s foreign minister in 2004 before joining an opposing party. She has driven away voters by making comments intolerant of ethnic minorities. Most likely, opposition candidate Vashadze will win as he gathers votes from smaller parties dissenting the Georgian Dream party. These dissent votes suggest “opposition consolidation for the 2020 parliamentary elections” will reshape the future political landscape (“Presidentials: Expert Assessments in Tbilisi”).
Monthly Archives: November 2018
The war on drugs is decades old. Numbers of usage and production have remained steady or even grown. In order for a major shift to occur the United States should implement the following changes to its counternarcotics policy.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Over the last half decade, there have been several incidents of violence between Nigerian security forces and the Shia group known as the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN). The IMN, are led by the cleric Ibrahim El-Zakzaky. Originally from the northern city of Zaria, El-Zakzaky is a self-professed admirer of the Iranian Islamic Revolution and critic of the Nigerian government. He travelled to Iran in 1980 in order to become a cleric and be able to bring Shi’ism to Nigeria (Campbell 2018). From the 1990s onward, El-Zakzaky has attracted thousands of followers as he promotes the widespread adoption of Islamic law by the Nigerian government, with the ultimate goal of turning it into an Islamic Republic.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Human trafficking is a world-wide problem that has taken on many forms. As discussed
Monthly Archives: November 2018
In December 1987, U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev signed the U.S.-Russian Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The treaty “prohibited the United States and the Soviet Union from possessing, testing and deploying ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles of ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers” and required both countries to destroy a specified number of nuclear missiles (Cameron). In July 2014, U.S. State Department reported Russia violated the treaty. In February 2017, the United States accused Russia of deploying a nuclear system, a further treaty violation, and attempted to coerce Russia into compliance with sanctions.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
International Relations of African Nations
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Syria is an incredibly strategic theater for the United States and the international community, but recent events threaten to create interstate conflict, disunity among US allies, and major humanitarian crises (Agence France-Presse 2018).
Monthly Archives: November 2018
One of the most egregious crimes of the 21st century is human trafficking. This phenomena is not new, but it has increased in scope and scale in the past several years as international travel and technological development have increased to be able to hide it better and spread it more rapidly. Latin America remains one of the most troubled regions of human trafficking, as heavy migration and a lack of anti-trafficking laws has permitted widespread sexual slavery and human smuggling [1]. This report focuses on trafficking in northern Latin America, from Central America to Mexico and into the United States.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Chinese low conditionality approach to infrastructure loans in Africa has been billed as a great opportunity for developing nations in the region to achieve economic development and growth that would otherwise not be possible. However, despite representing what one Ugandan economist described as an “unrivalled willingness to avail unconditional capital to Africa”, China’s extensive penetration in Africa by way of development-oriented loans comes with a significant amount of risk, both for the host nations as well as the United States and the West (Madowo, 2018).
Monthly Archives: October 2018
The already turbulent politics of the Arab Gulf are being wracked by the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, allegedly after being tortured (Kempe 2018; Alsharif et al. 2018). Responsibility for the murder may reach all the way up to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, also referred to as MbS (Riedel 2018; Kirkpatrick, Malachy, Hubbard, and Botti 2018; El-Ghobashy and Fahim 2018). Different countries are experiencing diverse effects of the situation.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
On October 20, 2018, Macedonia (the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia or FYROM) moved a step closer to joining NATO after two-thirds of its parliament approved a name change for the country–from Republic of Macedonia to North Macedonia. Macedonia is moving to change its name to North Macedonia to resolve a 27 year dispute with Greece. In September, over 90% of voters approved the name change, but boycott efforts led to less than a 50% voter turnout, passing the issue to Macedonia’s parliament. Despite parliament’s approval, the name change is still subject to future votes and Greece’s ratification.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
The United States has implemented two major policies to aid Ukraine’s defense against Russian invasion: sanctions and military support. In September 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to “ensure the full implementation” of U.S. sanctions against Russia (“Trump strengthens sanctions…”). Since 2014, the United States has used sanctions to combat Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. The idea behind sanctions is that the measures will weaken Russia’s ability to fund its Ukraine military effort, and this weakness will eventually force Russia to withdraw from the conflict. For military support, in September 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump approved $250 million to support Ukraine in military exercises, the provision of military equipment, lethal weapons and logistics support… the replacement of previously provided weapons or military goods… [and] reconnaissance support of Ukraine’s armed security forces” (“Trump signs Pentagon’s…”).
Monthly Archives: October 2018
This week’s news in Central America:
Monthly Archives: October 2018
In 1971, the thralls of the Vietnam war, President Nixon declared a new type of war: “The War on Drugs.” Ever since, the United States has fought to reduce both supply of and demand for illegal drugs.[i] Despite recent initiatives decriminalizing marijuana in many states and Canada’s new law legalizing cannabis, illegal drug use, convictions in the United States, and violence both in Mexico and throughout the numerous drug corridors is up.[ii] The history of the War on Drugs illustrates the difficulty in responding to the issue, and the complexity of possible answers.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Power grabs, political strife, proxy wars, and pride have all contributed to the most recent crisis to hit the historically unstable Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (Adams 2018; Stratfor 2017; Hassan 2018). This time it features the so-called “Quartet” of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Egypt facing off against Qatar, and to an extent Turkey and Iran (The Economist 2018; Al-Jazeera 2017; Haaretz and Reuters 2018). The ongoing instability from the conflict, which was almost fought with armies instead of PR companies, creates friction between US allies and prevents a united front against Iran (Stratfor 2017; Yousef et al. 2018, Pfeffer 2018; Emmons 2018).
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko named former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili governor of Odessa in May 2015. In addition to governorship, Poroshenko bestowed honorary Ukrainian citizenship on Saakashvili, who lost his Georgian citizenship after being driven out of the country in a political conflict (“Ukraine names ex-Georgian…”). Saakashvili, who was offered the post due to his success lowering corruption in Georgia during his 2004 to 2013 presidency, resigned just a year later, in 2016. He cited Poroshenko’s corruption, saying that Poroshenko protected corrupt Ukrainians. In July 2017, Poroshenko stripped Saakashvili of his Ukrainian citizenship and arrested him. Saakashvili responded by barging through Ukraine’s Polish border with a crowd of supporters in September 2017. Police chased him onto a rooftop in December 2017. In February 2018, police arrested Saakashvili in a restaurant and deported him to Poland, a move which he called a kidnapping (“What’s behind Mikheil…”).
Monthly Archives: October 2018
The new deal negotiated by the countries of North America as a potential replacement of NAFTA has received a fair mixture of praise and criticism. The new trade agreement, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA), comes as the result of President Donald Trump’s major campaign promise to reshape NAFTA in order to better the United States’ position within NAFTA. There are a few major changes to this agreement that will benefit all involved parties, but as with most agreements, there are some criticisms that will be studied as it moves forward.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
ANarco, Lawlessness and Narcotics in Central America
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine has struggled economically and politically (“Ukraine”). Ukraine is battling internal and external political struggles with Russian takeover of its east regions, which began in 2013. On November 24, 2013, in response to the Ukrainian government’s decision to reject a European Union (EU) trade agreement and move closer to Russia, around 100,000 protesters gathered in Ukraine’s capital, Kiev (“Ukraine crisis: Timeline”). These protests turned violent.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Just this past week, President Donald Trump announced that the United States, Canada, and Mexico have reached a compromise on the long-promised NAFTA renegotiations. Although a step down from a total rebranding of NAFTA, as President Trump had promised on the campaign trail, there are several new aspects of the deal that experts from all three countries both cheer and lament [1]. It has been renamed, now the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which itself has been criticized for its difficulty to say[2]. Notwithstanding names and promises, NAFTA has been a favorite scapegoat for President Trump for a long time, and now he has the chance to wave it in the face of his critics and attempt to win over more support.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
The Gulf Cooperation Council is an organization designed to strengthen ties between six Gulf-Arab states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Qatar) and coordinate their approaches to regional issues (Al-Hassan 2018; Guzansky and Heistein 2018). However, its usefulness and viability have diminished in recent years (Cordesman 2018; Henderson 2018).
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Nicaragua is unraveling. At least that’s what many of its own citizens are saying. They say it with good reason. In the four-plus months of protests, the government has violently cracked down on any opposition, funding and arming paramilitary groups who function outside the limits of the law to kidnap, torture, and even execute active protesters, even non-violent ones. And not only that, but the government has systematically expelled any international human rights watchers, most notably a team from the UN [1]. That move sparked outrage among the international community, as it clearly gave away the government’s fear of exposure. Now, the international community is asking what comes next. Experts see the following ideas as potential implications for the future.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Millions of Venezuelans flood out of their home country to anywhere that will take them. As the tide of migrants increases the responses of neighboring countries is varied. How other countries respond will greatly influence the end result of the crisis. A number of examples are explained below.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Russia is pursuing a hybrid warfare strategy, which is defined as unconventional use of force (Van Puyvelde 2015). Using this strategy, Russia lays groundwork to continue expansion by spreading misinformation. Though Russia’s takeover of Crimea prevents Ukraine from joining NATO, as it has resulted in a territorial dispute, NATO should prioritize preventing other Russian expansion first. NATO lacks substantive policies to mitigate the effects of Russian propaganda. NATO must develop a strategy to combat Russian hybrid warfare with the following objectives:
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Policy Recommendations to Counter Iranian Expansionism
Monthly Archives: September 2018
On October 7th, Brazil will hold the first round of its national elections on the heels of a severe political and economic crisis. A combination of economic failures and rampant corruption have led to widespread disenchantment with Brazil’s political system, and have led to the immense popularity of a candidate who poses a significant threat to democracy in Brazil: a far-right presidential candidate named Jair Bolsonaro
Monthly Archives: September 2018
The Brazilian military has a long history of intervening in the nation’s political affairs, a pattern that many believe continues to this day. The first instance of such intervention occurred in 1889 when the military officially declared the end of the rule of then-Emperor Pedro II. During the latter half of the 19th century, Brazil went through a period of drastic societal and institutional transformation that caused the military and agricultural classes to become frustrated with the imperial government (James and Martins, 2018). These frustrations manifested themselves in 1889 when military officers organized and carried out a coup in Rio de Janeiro, leading to the formation of the Republic of Brazil.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
In November 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum on whether the UK should withdraw from the European Union. By a narrow margin of 51.9% to 48.1% votes in favor of leaving the EU, the UK began its split[1] A year later on March 29, 2017, the UK invoked Clause 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, officially starting the two-year process of formal withdrawal from the European Union. The whole process has been tumultuous and the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU is unclear. It is interesting to note that the “Remain” and “Leave” votes were split among geographic lines, with London and Scotland voting to stay and the more rural areas of England voting to leave.[2]
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Russia is turning towards a hybrid warfare strategy, which is unconventional use of force (Van Puyvelde 2015). Using this strategy, Russia regularly interferes with other countries’ politics to achieve favorable political outcomes. On September 30, 2018, Macedonia (FYROM) will hold a referendum, which, if voters pass it, will bring the country a step closer to joining the European Union (EU). On September 17, 2018, US Defense Secretary James Mattis warned that Russia was funding referendum opposition groups (“Mattis Warns Against…” 2018). Further, Moscow’s ambassador to Skopje, Macedonia’s capital, threatened that Russia would make Macedonia a “legitimate target” if NATO and Russia came into conflict (“Shcherbak: In case…” 2018). This political interference is consistent with Russia’s past strategy of preventing countries from joining the EU, such as it did with the frozen South Ossetian conflict in Georgia (hyperlink yellow highlighted portion to: http://praemon.org/russian-hybrid-warfare/ .)
Monthly Archives: September 2018
This past summer, Nicaragua has experienced one of the worst political crises it has faced in the 21st century. President Daniel Ortega headed legislation in the spring of 2018 that saw vast reforms to Nicaragua’s social security program. The reforms involved increasing taxes while lowering the pension rate by five percent, a move which has proved to be extremely controversial given President Ortega’s history of authoritarianism. The protests have escalated since April and it is estimated that over 300 people have been killed, with thousands more arrested and injured [1].
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro has a new economic plan which he calls “a really impressive magic formula.”[i] Hyperinflation has hit the country hard, and the solutions Maduro proposes include a 3,000% increase in the minimum wage, a new commodity-based cryptocurrency,[ii] cutting any number of zeros from off of the currency,[iii] and magical political rhetoric. The plan has to this point failed as the situation worsens by the day. Inflation has sped up rather than slowing down, and Maduro’s popularity falls by the day. As the nation’s educated middle-class citizens leave by the thousands the economic outlook is worsening, not improving.[iv]
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Iran has significantly increased its efforts to expand its influence and sway across the Middle East, in locations as diverse as Iraq, Syria, and Morocco. It has followed a shrewd strategy of realpolitik that adjusts to constantly shifting politics in the region.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
The United States has been warned of a “cyber-Pearl Harbor” for years. Earlier in 2018, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats announced that “the lights are blinking red.”[1] Russia’s attempts at interference in U.S. elections has already been confirmed by the U.S. intelligence community, and the theft of American intellectual property is a daily occurrence. The world is already “weaponizing the Internet,” and the United States needs to adapt or lose its edge.[2]
Monthly Archives: September 2018
On March 17, 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea. During the Russian invasion, local residents noted the presence of troops wearing unmarked green uniforms. These troops’ unclear origins and uniform color earned them the moniker “little green men.” Eventually their weapons revealed their Russian origins, which Putin confirmed in April 2014 (Pifer 2014). Russia supported a fraudulent election in Crimea to annex the territory (Adesnik 2014).
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Iran is currently embarked on a campaign to extend both its territorial control and its ideological influence across the Middle East. Historically, post-1979 Iranian expansionism has roots in the ideology of the Islamic Revolution, nuances in official Iranian interpretation of Shia Islam, and Iranian security concerns.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Cyber warfare[1] is the most dangerous threat America faces today.[2] The U.S. Government has identified three major cyber threats to the American way of life: China, Russia, and Iran.[3] These nations have consistently attacked American industry, threatening the United States’ economic security. These attacks are occurring on a daily basis with the express purpose of “[exploiting] America’s openness in order to undermine our long-term competitive advantage.”[4] America is also vulnerable to non-state actors using cyber capabilities to challenge America’s interests. While no non-state actor has yet to conduct a major cyber attack on the United States, America’s online infrastructure is still vulnerable to attacks from state and non-state actors alike.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
There is a cooperation between five major countries in the world that was created to share top secret information in an effort to better protect the world’s best interests. Known informally as Five Eyes, this collaboration of intelligence organizations exists officially under the UKUSA treaty. The term “Five Eyes” is a shortened version of the very long name “Aus/Can/NZ/UK/Eyes Only” (UK Defense Journal) and officially includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Stemming from The Special Relationship that the United States and the United Kingdom share, each country takes the surveillance of different regions of the world, with UK focusing on “Europe, Western Russia, Middle East and Hong Kong [while] the United States [watches over] the Middle East, China, Russia, Africa, and the Caribbean [Australia and New Zealand share] South and East Asia and the South Pacific.” Canada takes charge of parts of Russia, China, and focuses on Latin America (UK Defense Journal).
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves,[i] and the state has relied on oil revenue for the provision of government services. This system, established by former President Hugo Chavez, was mostly stable until after his death and the ascension of his successor, Nicolas Maduro. Political and economic troubles confronted the Maduro government in February of 2014.[ii] Since these protests shortages, inflation, questionable elections, and mass emigration have plagued Venezuela. The government has attempted to correct, only worsening the situation.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
To understand Brexit and why the United Kingdom’s pending split from the European Union (EU) is causing such a stir, we look to the origins of the EU and their relationship with the UK. After almost half a century of continental war and deep economic depression in the 20th century, Europe desperately needed to rebuild economically. Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Belgium, known as the “Original Six”, signed the 1957 Rome Treaty to create the European Economic Community (EEC), allowing for steel and industrial materials to flow tariff-free between those countries. Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom joined in 1973 with nineteen other European nations joining later, Croatia being the latest to join in 2013 (EUROPA 2018). The EEC morphed into the European Communities, a customs union, in 1965 after the addition of new member countries (Kesselman 2018). This international union was brought about for two main reasons: for economic cohesion and to avoid a continental war as they had just experienced in the World Wars.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
The recent presidential elections in Mexico marked a new wave in Mexican politics, and a turn of administration not unlike that seen in the United States in 2016. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won a landslide election, being the first president from the leftist National Regeneration Movement Party (Morena) in Mexico’s history. Since Mexico’s last major constitutional reform in 1926, the right-leaning Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held overwhelming power for the duration of the 20th century, losing in 2000 for two terms of six years, but regained power in 2012 under Enrique Pena Nieto. Mexico’s rampant economic problems, coupled by troubling bouts of violence and corruption (as evidenced by the disappearance and cover-up of the 43 students in Guerrero in 2014), increased the Mexican people’s distrust of government and desire for major institutional change (Noriega, 2018).
Monthly Archives: March 2016
Russia’s propaganda war on Germany and the West
Monthly Archives: January 2015
The People’s Republic of China is ruled by a single party, and as such, most high level party leaders occupy corresponding high level positions in the government as well. Government and party leaders often coincide but are not mandated to be one in the same. Opposing parties are almost entirely non-existent.
Monthly Archives: June 2014
Mr. Putin would casually deny it, but Russia has fashioned the ongoing civil conflict in Eastern Ukraine in a manner that suits the Kremlin’s goals. The opening actions of the rebellion were pulled off without too many snags and managed to seize significant political and economic sites throughout the region, ranging from police stations to major railroad junctions. A growing amount of evidence suggests that these seemingly homegrown insurrections were originally led and coordinated by Russian operatives disguised as locals. Videos and eyewitness accounts show large convoys of vehicles packed with armed, uniformed men (many belonging to the Vostok Battalion, of Chechen War notoriety) streaming into Ukraine from over the Russian border. While this isn’t exactly hard evidence of the Kremlin’s direct involvement, it does speak volumes about what entities are fueling the current strife. Despite these occurrences, Putin does not seem interested in invading and annexing the eastern provinces of Ukraine in the same way that he did Crimea. This article discusses why Moscow does not want to absorb Eastern Ukraine, as well as what Russia’s true intensions are.
Monthly Archives: June 2014
XinJiang, the Uyghur Autonomous Region, stages some of China’s most violent separatist movements, the most violent of which are developing terrorist- threats. In April, President Xi Jinping visited the region and spoke specifically on the issue of combating terrorism. While China has not officially declared a counterterrorism program, it has developed a new National Security Commission designed to counter “unconventional security” threats. China has modeled much of its new commission after that of the U.S. and may, in the future, follow the U.S. model further by developing a comprehensive counterterrorism program. Given the escalating situation in various autonomous regions, the likelihood that China will develop a broader official counterterrorism strategy is high. This analysis takes into consideration two simplified factors: the development of separatist movements in a Chinese national context, and the evolving Chinese policy of dealing with regional security threats.
Monthly Archives: March 2014
Praemon is proud to release the 2014 Annual Threat Report. This collaborative project constitutes dozens of hours of research and analysis on various national security threats. The analyses included in the Annual Threat Report cover some of the most pressing threats to U.S. national security over the next year.
We would like to formally announce that Praemon’s leadership is changing. Changes in Praemon’s leadership occur periodically as it is staffed solely by students enrolled at Brigham Young University. The current president, Mike Godfrey, will be replaced by the current vice president, Michael Fields. Mike Godfrey will graduate this week with a Bachelor of Arts degree after serving as president for over two years. His vision of making Praemon a professional publication that produces accurate and timely Open-Source Intelligence analyses will continue and be expanded upon. We want to thank Mike for his leadership and wish him the best of luck in his future endeavors. We are also very excited to have Michael Fields come on as our new president and are looking forward to his insights and leadership as we continue strong into the next academic year.
Monthly Archives: October 2013
America’s cyber security situation is in disarray. Ironically, the most technologically advanced country in the world is struggling mightily to protect itself and its interests in the digital domain. Recent events show that the pervasiveness and complexity of cyber threats are growing. At the same time, American cyber security efforts have been severely restricted by domestic and foreign political pressures. These pressures have left the United States more vulnerable to cyber attacks. If these trends continue, America will face increasingly serious threats from state actors and even more serious threats from non-state actors like terrorists.
Monthly Archives: October 2013
Now that the possibility of a US missile strike in Syria has faded, US attention has been diverted to other matters in the Middle East, namely, negotiations with Iran. However, the diminished threat of intervention combined with a weak UN Security Council Resolution has led to a significant loss of US influence among the Syrian opposition. The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), one of two al-Qaeda branches operating in Syria, has capitalized on this influence vacuum by attempting to establish its dominance within rebel-held territory. In response to an ascendant ISIS and general frustration with US foreign policy, opposition fighting groups are beginning to form Islamic coalitions independent of the US-backed Syrian National Council. US policymakers will now have to deal with a stronger al-Qaeda presence and less capacity to bolster anti-regime forces.
Monthly Archives: September 2013
The UN crossed a new threshold in moving towards the authorization of offensive force by its troops. While initial results are positive, the US should respect and support international efforts and help in any way possible, thus helping to establish a healthy multi-lateral option to tackle international security concerns, and that can be used as a model in years to come.
Monthly Archives: September 2013
The United States is at a crossroads in its relationship with Mexico. Congress is set to decide on the issue of immigration reform now that the recess is over. New developments in the war on drugs have prompted questions about how to best cooperate with Mexico. President Peña Nieto, still in his first year of governance, has adopted an ambitious plan for reform that provides the United States an opportunity to support its southern neighbor and thereby solidify relations. At the same time, however, China is busy reinventing its own relationship with Mexico, complicating the prospects for improved U.S.-Mexican relations. This means that the United States must act quickly in order to maintain its influence in Mexico and protect its national security interests.
The events in Syria in past weeks show that the civil war has transformed into a greater regional sectarian conflict. Because of the nuanced and complex nature of this conflict, a deeper look at many aspects is required for an adequate analysis. This analysis is the second of two parts. The first focused on al-Qaeda operations and Iranian influence in Syria; this second part focuses on the Balkanizing of the Syrian state, Kurdish autonomy, and the implications of potential US intervention in Syria after the large-scale use of chemical weapons.
Another African terror chief is possibly dead—now is not the time to back away from a continent that western nations have largely ignored, and seem to not want to remember. With the hopeful news of the death of Abubakar Shekau, the United States should continue to assist legitimate African governments in their efforts to combat terrorism across Africa. A continued offensive on behalf of the United States and its African allies would help to contain the spread of terrorism to a few isolated patches in the Middle East, as well as help the US in its larger strategic goals.
Events in Syria over the last several weeks show signs of a looming regional sectarian conflict. This conflict is complicated and requires a deep understanding of many nuanced aspects. Therefore this analysis will be conducted in two parts: the first focusing on al-Qaeda’s operations and Iranian influence in Syria; the second focusing on Kurdish autonomy and the Balkanizing of the Syrian state.
Recent events in Egypt highlight the need for increased attention on the flourishing (floundering?) Arab Spring. For where viable opportunities for democratic governance once flourished, an age old balance between religion and secularism is threatening the fragile democratic processes and institutions of these newly democratic nations. The U.S. can work with the current situation in order to help both our international image, as well as the struggling Arab states.