Syria is an incredibly strategic theater for the United States and the international community, but recent events threaten to create interstate conflict, disunity among US allies, and major humanitarian crises (Agence France-Presse 2018).
The Syrian province of Idlib is currently experiencing an extremely uneasy truce between government forces and the myriad rebel groups occupying the Syrian rebels’ last major base of operations (Najjar 2018; Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center 2018; Agence France-Presse 2018). The main players in the region are the US, Turkey, Iran, Russia, the Syrian government, and a variety of nonstate fighting groups (Osborn and Barrington 2018). Due to years of international neglect for moderate rebel groups, continual population transfer deals by the Syrian government, and years of funding from Gulf countries, many of Idlib’s rebel groups have jihadist leanings (Lund 2017; Phillips 2018). The most powerful one, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, was formerly al-Qaeda’s proxy in Syria (Jansen 2018; Lister 2018). Other rebel groups are part of the more moderate National Liberation Front, which is under Turkey’s direction (Najjar 2018). Turkey’s military controls swathes of northern Syria and possesses large economic influence there (Asharq Al-Awsat 2018).
In September, a ceasefire deal negotiated by Turkey and Russia created a buffer zone in Idlib to prevent a regime assault (Osborn and Barrington 2018; Najjar 2018). Russia and Turkey were to each patrol the Idlib border to prevent fighting, while rebel groups were to move their heavy weapons away from the buffer zone; however, there have been compliance problems from both regime forces and jihadists (Osborn and Barrington 2018; Syrian Observatory for Human Rights 2018). The sustainability of the ceasefire depends on both the efforts and intentions of the main state-players—if Russia and Syria decide that their forces are prepared for an assault, it is unlikely that the deal will stop them. Meanwhile, there are radical jihadists in Idlib who could pose a severe threat to the United States; however, an indiscriminate and bloody assault from Russian, Iranian, and Syrian forces like previous campaigns could exacerbate the humanitarian situation in Idlib and strengthen the hand of radicals in the area (Al-Assil 2017).
Farther north, the situation is compounded by the tensions between the Turkish forces and the Kurds. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), composed primarily of Turkish YPG fighters, have been the US’s main ally in the fight against ISIS (Idiz 2018; New Arab 2018). However, Turkey, also a US ally, considers the SDF connected to the Kurdish terrorist group PPK, and has launched two military campaigns in recent years to wipe out Kurdish territorial holdings in northern Syria, which represent about 30% of Syrian land (Idiz 2018). Turkey shelled Kurdish military installations this week in a prelude to its threatened campaign to attack the Kurds on the eastern side of the Euphrates; the result was the SDF redeploying troops from its fight against ISIS in the east to frontlines near Turkey (Idiz 2018; France 24 2018; ISW 2018; New Arab 2018). The US and Turkey have started joint military patrols around the disputed city of Manbij, but the inherent awkwardness of the US position is manifest in continued fighting between its two main allies in the region (Erkoyun, Said, Perry, and Barrington 2018; Idiz 2018).
The US has continued the fight against ISIS in eastern Syria, with a recent focus on retaking the city of Hajin near the Iraqi border (Liveaumap 2018; France 24 2018). However, the group is still active in the region and putting up a hard fight, while the recent Turkish shelling led Kurdish authorities to redeploy troops towards Turkey rather than continuing in Hajin (France 24 2018; ISW 2018).
Dangers abound from instability in Syria. Like a pollical kaleidoscope, each week in Syria presents new ways for the US, Russia, Iran, Israel, and Turkey to stumble into interstate conflict (Yacoubian 2018; Holmes 2018; Roth 2018). The possibility of renewed fighting in Idlib and potential intensified conflict between the Kurds and the Turks could weaken the front against Iranian and Russian aggression and fragment international attempts to sort between moderate and radical rebel groups in northern Syria. Russia and Iran are expanding beyond military assistance to reconstruction and development work, signifying their intent to use Syria as a base for future expansionism and influence spreading (Bassiki 2018; Brown 2018). The dangers of a humanitarian crisis and mass refugee exodus in Idlib would be multiplied by any new fighting, which a single ceasefire violation could trigger (Agence France-Presse 2018; Kabalan 2018). Additionally, ISIS and al-Qaeda also remain potent threats in Idlib, and any conflict can distract attention from targeting these terror groups or feed their propaganda.
Works Cited:
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