Archive
78 results found
After years of tensions, on March 10th, 2023, Riyadh and Tehran, with China acting as host and facilitator, agreed to reopen diplomatic relations. China also offered a 12-point proposal to Kyiv and Moscow on the first anniversary of the invasion, meant to end the war in Ukraine. Beijing’s attempts to act as a peace facilitator demonstrate the Chinese Communist Party’s aims to shape a Chinese-centric future. These deals, particularly regarding Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and China, can be read as indicators of a global shift towards a more bipolar order intent on challenging the West.
Newly elected Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed al-Sudani, recently spoke out in an interview expressing support for U.S. military presence and training in Iraq. This statement holds both disillusion and relief for the United States, due to a history of tension between the two countries.
As the world approaches the one year anniversary of the Ukraine and Russian War, Russia is indicating they have no intention to step back any time soon. In light of the extensive sanctions against Russian interests, people, and their ability to conduct international banking, President Vladimir V. Putin has linked Russia’s banking system to the same banking institutions as Iran.
One year ago, the United States ended its longest war in Afghanistan. It was the end because the US pulled all military (and many other) personnel from the country. Following the US action, the Taliban quickly took control of the country. The speed of this takeover was surprising to the world.
The United States faces new difficulties to a clear terrorism policy. As it no longer has a physical presence in Afghanistan and seeks to continuously curb the influence of terror groups in the Middle East, the United States has utilized over-the-horizon drone strikes against terror leaders. This strategy had particular attention in the Trump and Biden administrations with drone strikes against Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, respectively. Although over-the-horizon strikes provide a relatively simple alternative to on-the-ground forces, the problems raised by their extensive intelligence requirements and implications for U.S. involvement outside warzones makes this policy unsustainable. This article is meant to analyze both the history and probability of its implementation. Though over-the-horizon strikes can include the use of special forces groups, this definition will focus strictly on drone strikes.
A hunger crisis now faces the people of Afghanistan, and the United States holds the key to a significant part of resource flow into the country. As the Taliban implement their authoritarian control of the country, human rights abuses have become more widespread and a hunger crisis risks putting millions into famine condition. The United States may be able to leverage access to much need food and medical supplies to ensure that the Taliban do not revert to their horrific rule of the 1990’s.
Turkey occupies a highly influential role in multiple regional conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Near East. Each of which have potential to create issues for committed U.S. interests in the region. But Turkish cooperation is far from guaranteed, and in some areas, it is instigating these tensions. The United States must carefully factor in Turkey’s internal and external situations as it attempts to navigate situations with Ukraine, Syria, and even the E.U. 's plans for defense, and yet Turkey has proven difficult to rely on in cooperating with any of these interests. The most likely points of direct conflict remain northern Syria and the Black Sea.
Underdevelopment dominates the Middle East and North African region. In 2020, the gravest issues faced by the MENA region were conflicts over water and poor water infrastructure.
The newly elected president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, is the first hard-line conservative to take office since the administration of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–13). With Raisi as president, hard-line conservatives control each branch of the Iranian government - conservatives closely aligned with supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Hard-line conservative dominance of the government will likely mean that the negotiations with the United States, focused on a return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, will become much more difficult. Iranian backing of regional militias, which have been problematic to United States interests, will almost certainly continue. Negotiations regarding the Iranian ballistic missile program will almost certainly not happen. Most importantly, regional disputes will likely become more contentious under a hardliner-controlled Iran.
Monthly Archives: April 2021
April 3, 2021, brought shocking news of the arrest of top Jordanian officials for “security reasons,” including former finance minister Bassam Awadallah and Prince Hassan bin Zaid. Prince Hamzeh, son of the late King Hussein’s fourth wife and half-brother of current King Abdullah II, was also placed under house arrest, allegedly for “actions targeting Jordan’s security.” Jordan’s government quickly called it an attempted coup, backed by unspecified “foreign entities” threatening to destabilize the kingdom.
Monthly Archives: January 2021
The Abraham Accords are a groundbreaking step in warming Arab relations with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu went as far as to describe it as, “a pivot of history. It heralds a new dawn of peace.” It was a significant policy switch for the United Arab Emirates. The Arab world had long refused to make any formal relations with Israel as part of the Khartoum Resolution in 1967, agreeing to have no peace, no negotiations, and no recognition of Israel until the Palestinian conflict was resolved. If anything, the conflict has only gotten worse from a Palestinian perspective, so why the change in policy from the UAE? The Gulf nations have a lot to gain from exchanging technology, trade, and tourism with Israel, but the military tensions and the shifting power struggle in the region are the main motivating forces of the agreement. This does mean that the United States can continue to soften its military presence in the Middle East, and work with Arab countries as partners against rival influences rather than as the sole protector of the region.
Monthly Archives: December 2020
The killing of the Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was the latest event to escalate tensions in the Middle East between the US and Israel, and Iran. The head of the Iranian nuclear program was killed in his car in an ambush supposedly done by satellite-controlled machine guns near the Iranian capital, Tehran. The killing has naturally attracted widespread outcry from the international community. The European Union condemned it as a “criminal act” against human rights, and they and many other countries call for restraint.
The UAE’s primary goals in its relations with Iran are to avoid conflict and prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Recently, the UAE has pursued these goals through a warming of relations with Iran. Traditionally however, the UAE pursued those goals by joining the Saudi-U.S.-led pressure campaign on Iran. Most notably, the UAE provided funds, air support, and thousands of troops to fight the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The UAE also ardently supported the U.S. in its campaign to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and welcomed Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in favor of a more aggressive approach.
Monthly Archives: February 2020
For the past few decades, Iran and the United States have been locked in a political dance in which both states attempted to control the domestic, regional, and international politics of the Middle East. From the US using its allies to implement strong-arm tactics, like sanctions against Iran, to Iran inciting anti-American riots in Baghdad, to both states backing opposite sides in war-torn countries such as Syria and Yemen, the two countries have favored using other nations to further their interests instead of using direct force against each other. However, the recent assassination of the powerful Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and his entourage in Iraq by the US military has moved this decades-long conflict between the two states from a proxy war into a new stage of outright aggression.
Monthly Archives: November 2019
While it cannot be categorically stated that the United States “won” the Cold War, the fall of the Soviet Union and the ensuing economic and political turmoil in Russia left the United States as the only surviving global superpower. In the early 1990s, the modern-day perception of a powerful, ascendant China had not yet solidified, and China remained unable to compete with the United States in spite of its rapid economic growth. Indeed, although it can be considered a regional superpower in Asia, at present China is a global superpower only economically.1
Monthly Archives: November 2019
Late October 2019 saw border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan that led to the deaths of three Afghan civilians. These clashes began after Afghan forces and local militias stopped the Pakistani military from establishing a military installation along the border in eastern Kunar province. Afghan sources claimed that Pakistani forces fired mortars and rockets at villages in the border district of Nari during these clashes.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
Last month, cruise missiles targeted and damaged oil facilities in Saudi Arabia owned by Saudi Aramco. The Houthis in Yemen immediately claimed responsibility for the attack and the United States and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran soon afterwards, insisting the missiles were launched from southern Iran.[1] The reactions of other countries, particularly those remaining in the JCPOA, have proven to be just as important.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
The Kingdom of Jordan, a Middle Eastern country smaller than many American states, has found itself in an increasingly unpredictable environment since 2003. Conflicts in Israel/Palestine, Syria, and Iraq surround it, and its economy is straining with 18% unemployment, high taxes, and corruption.[1]
Monthly Archives: September 2019
Over the past two and a half years of the Trump administration, American energy companies have quietly made deals with Saudi Arabian energy officials to begin trading information on nuclear energy.[1] The United States and Saudi Arabia see nuclear development as a very symbiotic and lucrative deal, which could bring the US several billions of dollars in trade revenue every year. However, several politicians and energy officials fear that a nuclear arms race will develop between Iran and SA.[2] SA hopes to both satisfy its increasing power needs and protect itself.[3] Despite some hesitations, the US has moved forward with authorizations as the Kingdom hopes to build two new plants in the coming years.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
US-Iran relations have grown increasingly troubled since the election of President Trump. Given the recent rhetoric from the current administration, some worry about the possibility of conventional armed conflict between the two states. Military maneuvers on both sides have postured the two nations for conflict despite some congressional efforts to prevent war. In June, an unmanned US drone was shot down in what Iran claimed was its airspace. President Trump accused Iran of “warmongering”[1] while Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that the drone had “violated Iranian airspace.”[2] In July, Iranian officials detained a British tanker in response to Britain’s detainment of an oil tanker in Gibraltar.[3]
Monthly Archives: August 2019
This summer has been notably characterized by a heating up of tensions between the US and its allies, and Iran. President Trump’s hardline, “maximum pressure” approach against Tehran, which dates back to his withdrawal from the JCPOA in the spring of 2018, has been firm and constant. The US has imposed strict economic sanctions, sent 2,500 troops to the region, an aircraft carrier, and conducted cyber attacks, while Iran has shot down a US drone and allegedly attacked ships in the region.[1] Iran’s acts of aggression and recent breaches of sections of the JCPOA are primarily meant to coerce the US into lifting the series of economic sanctions it has enacted since its withdrawal from the accord.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
The Pakistan Armed Forces were created from the British Indian Army in 1947 (Heathcote 1995, 253). They are comprised of the Army, Navy, and Airforce and are led by Zubair Mahmood Hayat, who currently serves as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (Shaikh 2016; Blood 1996, 287-288). This committee includes the Chief of Army Staff, Chief of Naval Staff, and Chief of Air Staff, and is the highest administrative body in Pakistan’s military (Blood 1996, 288). Also relevant is the Inter-Services Intelligence, the agency responsible for covert operations abroad (Blood 1996, 288). The minimum age for voluntary military service is sixteen, although eighteen is the minimum age for deployment (Central Intelligence Agency, 2019). Women can serve in all three branches (Central Intelligence Agency, 2019).
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Lebanese politics are currently centered on forming a new government that can help Lebanon address its pressing economic issues (Perry 2018; Al-Jazeera 2018). However, the process is strongly hindered by spats on the role of Hezbollah and its affiliates in the new unity government (Macaron 2018; Anbar 2018; Dakroub 2018).
The Syrian civil war has escalated significantly in recent days. As the Syrian regime forces have begun a campaign to take back the strategic city of Qusayr, Sunni jihadists, among them the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda in Iraq, have begun operations against Shi’ites in Lebanon and Iraq. These terrorist activities could spark protracted civil wars in both Lebanon and Iraq along sectarian lines.
On October 25, 2012, The New York Times published an eye-opening report on an extensive, billion-dollar business empire constructed by relatives of China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao. Three months later, the Times revealed it had been undergoing intense cyber attacks even before the report was publicly released. Cooperating with AT&T, the FBI, and a leading cybersecurity firm, the Times pinned the digital break-ins on Chinese hackers, adding that the Chinese military was likely involved.
The situation in Syria has been deteriorating rapidly in the past few weeks. New developments are of special concern for U.S. national security as we are getting a new view of Syria’s geopolitical reality. These developments include the rise in preeminence of al-Qaeda and its affiliates among the rebellion, concerns surrounding chemical weapons security, and recent regime activities that may indicate their short to mid-term goals.
Events in the Middle East and North Africa in recent months indicate a major shift in strategy by al-Qaeda and its affiliates. While many officials mistake this shift as a sign of al-Qaeda’s looming defeat, it actually displays a rapidly growing danger to U.S. national security. Al-Qaeda’s new ability to capitalize on instability amid preexisting rebellions is quite disturbing, and is occurring in several locations. The place of most significance for al-Qaeda is Syria, but a look at their ongoing late-phase operation in Mali can offer some insights into future developments in Syria.
On Tuesday, President Ahmadinejad accused the United States and “internal enemies” of waging a “psychological war” against Iran in an attempt to stop Iranians from ditching the weakening rial for U.S. dollars. This “war” refers to the significant problems Iran faces, including the U.S.-led economic sanctions, a threatened Israeli military strike, and now internal protests. While this perceived psychological war against Iran has yet to turn into a physical conflict, the United States and Israel must be aware that increasing pressure may cause the Iranian military and government to act erratically, which may lead to Iranian military action.
Iran’s nuclear program has again entered the spotlight of U.S. foreign policy debates in a election cycle in which foreign policy has taken the backseat. The current debates often result in three scenarios: 1) Iran gives up its nuclear program, 2) Israel (with or without U.S. assistance) makes a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, postponing Iran’s progress, or 3) The parties involved wait until Iran develops nuclear weapons and thus assure a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel. Essentially, these scenarios ultimately result in either Iran ending its nuclear program or an unavoidable war between Israel (and therefore the U.S.) and Iran. These scenarios leave no room for the possibility of a nuclear Iran without war.
Pakistan has been gambling for a long time with its use of militants as a strategic edge over India. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) created and utilized different groups that we generally label as “Taliban” in order to counter Indian power in the region. This has been a several decade-long endeavor but is now showing signs of failure as India is increasing its influence in Afghanistan. In this context, Indian-Pakistani relations will likely prove to be an even more critical national security issue as we scale back military efforts in the region.
To coincide with the anniversary of the raid that killed Osama bin laden, the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point released 17 de-classified documents obtained in bin Laden’s Abbattobad compound. These 17 documents are a small fraction of the thousands of documents recovered from the raid. Despite their small number, these documents add color to our understanding of al-Qaeda’s leadership; namely, the relationship that al-Qaeda leaders maintained with its affiliates was the subject of internal debate and scrutiny. The insights gained from these prior inner workings may offer a glimpse into understanding the current dynamics of al-Qaeda methodology
An intelligence report released last week discussed a security threat that presents a frightening picture of the world, one in which clean, usable water is increasingly scarce. Water scarcity is in large part a result of increasing demand due to world population growth. U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton said in a speech given at the World Bank that “by 2025, we believe that it could be as much as two-thirds of the world’s population, including in more areas within developed countries where people will be living under water stress.” She continued to explain that “water security for us is a matter of economic security, human security, and national security, because we see potential for increasing unrest, conflicts, and instability over water.”
The attack in France this past week at the hands of the terrorist Mohammed Merah is reawakening Europe to the realities of radicalization. This event should not be viewed as the beginning of a complex new terror campaign domestically but should be seen as an infrequent reality of war with terror groups. The majority of attempted domestic attacks have been unsuccessful for a number of reasons, and most people who are successfully recruited end up going to conflict areas in order to train and act out their new sense of ideology rather than stay in their country. A quick overview of some aspects of the radicalization process will reveal that there is no trend towards coordinated attacks or rampant radicalization in the West.
Recently there has been a deluge of calls for action to topple the Al-Assad regime in Syria in order to stop its bloody crackdown against the opposition movement. Many ideas have been thrown out into the open, the most prominent of which center around an air campaign, using a harsh set of sanctions against the regime, or arming the opposition with weapons capable of leveling the playing field. The loudest champions of these ideas by and large are generalizing the matter. Reducing the situation into black and white, election-friendly terms glosses over many of the grim realities in Syria. Looking at the main ideas listed above, we see that they are either unfeasible or the risks involved make them not only undesirable but also counterproductive.
Next Monday the Prime Minister of Israel will arrive in Washington, D.C. for an important security meeting with the President of the United States, Barack Obama. The focus of the meeting will be the ever-rising threat of a nuclear Iran. According to Israeli newspapers, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will request that the U.S. deliver an explicit military threat to Iran following the meeting. On the other hand, White House reports say that the President will likely want more time for the current sanctions and diplomatic actions to take effect.
This past week has seen Al-Qaeda rise after a period of weakening and transition. After losing a number of its leadership, most notably Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, it was thought that the organization would be further crippled until it could no longer operate effectively. However its recent actions in Iraq, Somalia, and possibly even Syria demonstrate that Al-Qaeda is transitioning itself to regain a foothold in the Middle East. At the same time, Iran has been penalized by the U.S. Treasury for its support of Al-Qaeda. Furthermore, a district court in 2011 found Iran guilty of being linked to the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania by Al-Qaeda. Although it has long been known that Iran is the largest state-backer of terrorism, this link to Al-Qaeda is especially important to understand the Iranian regime’s attempt to gain dominance in the Middle East.
Recently the European Union has been building up to the implementation of “crippling” new sanctions against the government of Iran. These new sanctions were finally revealed on January 23 and their primary focus is on limiting Iran’s oil export capability. Despite the strong rhetoric, these sanctions will not truly be effective in the short-term as they bar only new oil contracts with Iran while honoring current contracts until 1 July. Why are we seeing this apparent weakening of the economic hammer against Iran? Why not simply crush Iran into submission and force them into immediate negotiations? The basic answer is that the West is not capable of dealing effectively with Iran right now and needs more time to prepare.
This past week marked a monumental step for the United States’ presence in the Middle East. From an airport in Baghdad, the closing ceremonies of the U.S. war in Iraq were held. There was no celebration, just a simple ceremony and then it was over. Just a few hundred miles away, however, a new chapter opened. A top secret U.S. drone, called the RQ-170, was captured nearly 140 miles into Iran. Iranian officials were not pleased about the incident and have demanded an apology from President Obama before they are willing to return the highly valuable piece of military equipment. With troops finally exiting Iraq, but tensions rising in Iran, the question must be asked: Is the United States really done in the Middle East? And if not, what does the future hold?
A good article, but moving forward, where does that leave us? It is well known that Pakistan has developed nuclear weapons, what is unknown is how many they have. After we disown them, is there any advantage other than not having to hear them whine? Unless we invade Pakistan like we did Afghanistan, no positive change will happen. Here is my case:
On November 26, 2011 the Pakistani government was found red with anger after a series of strikes from a NATO aircraft killed at least 25 soldiers at the northwestern border with Afghanistan. The supreme army commander of Pakistan called the attacks unprovoked, but the Afghan security officers said that they were involved in a nighttime raid of a supposed Taliban hideout when they came under fire and responded.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
In early June, Washington issued an ultimatum to Turkey urging the country to reconsider its decision to buy the Russian S-400 air defense system. The Turkish Ministry of Defense acknowledged the ultimatum on June 8, two days after it was reported in the media (Kurt 2019). At that time, Turkey was informed that if the deal to purchase the S-400 from Russia continued, all Turkish personnel training with the American F-35 fighter planes would be required to cease training and leave American soil by July 31 (Marcus 2019). By June 6, Washington had already announced that it would stop accepting new Turkish pilots into the program for training on the F-35 (Stewart 2019).
Monthly Archives: July 2019
The Saudi-led coalition purchases most of its arms from the United States and United Kingdom, while weaponry for the Houthi rebels is smuggled almost entirely from Iran.
Monthly Archives: June 2019
It can be difficult to determine what the United States has to gain from involving itself in the Yemeni Civil War. The humanitarian crisis and the unsuccessful Saudi and Emirati attempts to defeat the Houthis have convinced some analysts that further American engagement in the war is unnecessary and even counterproductive. What, then, might Yemen have to do with the interests of the United States? There are two primary interests: limiting the Iranian threat and solving the country’s humanitarian crisis.
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Though it continually denies any substantial involvement in the Yemeni Civil War, Iran’s support for Houthi rebels has been visible to the international community since the Arab Spring.
Monthly Archives: June 2019
The United States faces an enduring and potent threat from the Islamic State (ISIS hereafter) terrorist group. Any decrease in efforts to dismantle both the group and its ideology worldwide is likely to grant the group the minimal operational space and security it needs to reorganize, rearm, recruit, and attack.
Monthly Archives: June 2019
The Yemeni Civil War, which started as a conflict between President Abdrabbuh Munsar Hadi’s government and Houthi revolutionaries, has become a magnet for external actors from around the world. A Saudi-led coalition consisting of the United States, France, and other countries supports Hadi’s government, while Iran backs the Houthi rebels. Nations representing both sides have poured billions of dollars of resources and thousands of men and women into the conflict, but recent findings have begun to reveal that there is another type of actor which is extraordinarily prominent: foreign mercenaries (Isenberg 2018).
Monthly Archives: May 2019
In a surprise move on March 19, Nursultan Nazarbayev stepped down as Kazakhstan’s president, a position he held for nearly 19 years. He declared as interim president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, “a longtime diplomat who was speaker of the upper house of parliament, the Senate” (“Kazakh Ruling Party…”). Nazarbayev’s resignation left a hole in Kazakhstan’s political structure which its people have never had the opportunity to fill, as he the only leader Kazakhstan has known as an independent country (“Kazakh Ruling Party”).
Monthly Archives: May 2019
American interests in Yemen are currently centered around limiting Iranian influence, ensuring safe oil transit, and maintaining the security of Saudi Arabia. Secondary interests include counterterrorism, human rights, and overall stability in the Middle East. A brief look at the history of US-Yemeni relations will show how these interests have evolved.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
Government of Pakistan: Information Report
Monthly Archives: May 2019
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, also known as Afghanistan, is located in South Central Asia. The government of Afghanistan consists of the President, council of ministers, provincial governors and the national assembly. According to the 2004 constitution, “Afghanistan shall be an Islamic Republic, independent, unitary and indivisible state” (Olam). To fulfill this constitution, Afghanistan’s government has three branches comprising of the Executive, Judicial, and Legislative branches.
Monthly Archives: April 2019
The endgame for the Taliban is relatively straightforward. They have two main objectives and are determined to meet them. Their two objectives are to get all foreign troops out of the country and to implement Sharia law throughout all of Afghanistan. They will continue to wage terror on US troops and the Afghan people until these objectives are met.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
ISIS affiliates flourish in regions plagued by weak governance, porous borders, and inept security force (Intel Brief, 2019). Affiliates are geographically dispersed and vary in capability; some are akin to terrorist groups, while others behave like insurgent groups (Intel Brief, 2019).
Monthly Archives: March 2019
The Islamic State’s use of social media has evolved over the past few years to attract more members. ISIS quickly built a brand on social media with tens of thousands of followers (DiResta, 2018). The organization’s strategic use of social media demonstrates the resourcefulness of the terrorist organization (Ward, 2018). Over time, ISIS maximized its reach through several social media platforms (Koerner, 2017). ISIS has been repeatedly the most adept terrorist group at using Internet and social media propaganda to recruit new members (Alfifi, Kaghazgaran, Morstatter). As ISIS continues to lose territory, they have adapted their use of social media to maintain power (Ward, 2018). Rather than calling followers to the front lines, ISIS’s social media strategy cultivates them at home in the United States, Europe, Africa, and Asia (Singer, Emerson, 2015). Social media has given terrorists the ability to directly come into contact with their target audience and either spread terror or recruit (Alfifi, Kaghazgaran, Morstatter).
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Background of US-EU Relations Regarding Iran
Monthly Archives: February 2019
In 2013, under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS began to study the West’s media so they could understand how best to mimic its methods of persuasion (Koerner, 2017). About a year later, in 2014, ISIS’s use of social media started, when they systematically leveraged technology and operated like a digital marketing team (DiResta, 2018). ISIS quickly built a brand on social media with tens of thousands of followers (How ISIS). Abu Musab al-Zarqawai, an ISIS leader, believed that they were “…in a media battle in a race for the hearts and minds of our Umma [Muslim people]” (Koerner, 2017). The organization’s strategic use of social media demonstrates the resourcefulness of the terrorist organization, which recruited an estimated 40,000 foreign nationals from 110 countries (Ward, 2018).
Monthly Archives: February 2019
One of the most persistent threats facing the world in the 21st century is the rise of human trafficking as a major form of criminal exploitation. Not only is this issue found worldwide, it is also a growing problem in the Middle East, especially as it combines with the impact of conflict and the rising refugee streams trying to reach Europe.
Monthly Archives: February 2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to stabilize Syria’s Idlib province against Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) growing aggression and territorial expansion struggles to be implemented (Russia: Deal 2019; Russia, Turkey 2019). Turkey and Russia planned for a de-escalation zone in Syria’s Idlib, where aggression is prohibited, so Syrian displaced peoples are allowed to return home. However HTS filled the power vacuum in the absence of state aggression. HTS now attempts to penetrate Aleppo from the Idlib province, which threatens the demilitarization deal between Turkey and Russia (Karaspan 2018).
Monthly Archives: January 2019
One of the most persistent and enduring enemies of the United States is the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Formed in 1979 following mass protests against the repressive, U.S.-backed Shah, Iran’s government has proven itself to be a significant threat to both the US and its allies in the region (particularly the Sunni-dominated countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Israel). Moreover, the ideological underpinnings of the Islamic Republic, its strategic concerns, and its perennial drive to export its revolution using malicious proxies continue to influence its foreign policy (Hilal 2017; Central Intelligence Agency 1980; International Crisis Group 2018; Nasr 2007, 143).
Monthly Archives: January 2019
Syrian Islamist terrorist group Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) continues to push its territorial expansion campaign from the Idlib province into Aleppo and the surrounding area controlled by the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front (NLF). Increasing aggression from HTS warns of more conflict not only for civilians and Turkey, but also challenges the Idlibdemilitarization deal between Turkey, Iran, the Syrian government, and Russia.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip this past week is culminating in a series of Israeli political changes that could produce another major conflict between the two sides.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Syria is an incredibly strategic theater for the United States and the international community, but recent events threaten to create interstate conflict, disunity among US allies, and major humanitarian crises (Agence France-Presse 2018).
Monthly Archives: October 2018
The already turbulent politics of the Arab Gulf are being wracked by the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, allegedly after being tortured (Kempe 2018; Alsharif et al. 2018). Responsibility for the murder may reach all the way up to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, also referred to as MbS (Riedel 2018; Kirkpatrick, Malachy, Hubbard, and Botti 2018; El-Ghobashy and Fahim 2018). Different countries are experiencing diverse effects of the situation.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Power grabs, political strife, proxy wars, and pride have all contributed to the most recent crisis to hit the historically unstable Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (Adams 2018; Stratfor 2017; Hassan 2018). This time it features the so-called “Quartet” of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Egypt facing off against Qatar, and to an extent Turkey and Iran (The Economist 2018; Al-Jazeera 2017; Haaretz and Reuters 2018). The ongoing instability from the conflict, which was almost fought with armies instead of PR companies, creates friction between US allies and prevents a united front against Iran (Stratfor 2017; Yousef et al. 2018, Pfeffer 2018; Emmons 2018).
Monthly Archives: October 2018
The Gulf Cooperation Council is an organization designed to strengthen ties between six Gulf-Arab states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Qatar) and coordinate their approaches to regional issues (Al-Hassan 2018; Guzansky and Heistein 2018). However, its usefulness and viability have diminished in recent years (Cordesman 2018; Henderson 2018).
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Policy Recommendations to Counter Iranian Expansionism
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Iran has significantly increased its efforts to expand its influence and sway across the Middle East, in locations as diverse as Iraq, Syria, and Morocco. It has followed a shrewd strategy of realpolitik that adjusts to constantly shifting politics in the region.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Iran is currently embarked on a campaign to extend both its territorial control and its ideological influence across the Middle East. Historically, post-1979 Iranian expansionism has roots in the ideology of the Islamic Revolution, nuances in official Iranian interpretation of Shia Islam, and Iranian security concerns.
Monthly Archives: October 2013
Now that the possibility of a US missile strike in Syria has faded, US attention has been diverted to other matters in the Middle East, namely, negotiations with Iran. However, the diminished threat of intervention combined with a weak UN Security Council Resolution has led to a significant loss of US influence among the Syrian opposition. The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), one of two al-Qaeda branches operating in Syria, has capitalized on this influence vacuum by attempting to establish its dominance within rebel-held territory. In response to an ascendant ISIS and general frustration with US foreign policy, opposition fighting groups are beginning to form Islamic coalitions independent of the US-backed Syrian National Council. US policymakers will now have to deal with a stronger al-Qaeda presence and less capacity to bolster anti-regime forces.
The events in Syria in past weeks show that the civil war has transformed into a greater regional sectarian conflict. Because of the nuanced and complex nature of this conflict, a deeper look at many aspects is required for an adequate analysis. This analysis is the second of two parts. The first focused on al-Qaeda operations and Iranian influence in Syria; this second part focuses on the Balkanizing of the Syrian state, Kurdish autonomy, and the implications of potential US intervention in Syria after the large-scale use of chemical weapons.
Another African terror chief is possibly dead—now is not the time to back away from a continent that western nations have largely ignored, and seem to not want to remember. With the hopeful news of the death of Abubakar Shekau, the United States should continue to assist legitimate African governments in their efforts to combat terrorism across Africa. A continued offensive on behalf of the United States and its African allies would help to contain the spread of terrorism to a few isolated patches in the Middle East, as well as help the US in its larger strategic goals.
Events in Syria over the last several weeks show signs of a looming regional sectarian conflict. This conflict is complicated and requires a deep understanding of many nuanced aspects. Therefore this analysis will be conducted in two parts: the first focusing on al-Qaeda’s operations and Iranian influence in Syria; the second focusing on Kurdish autonomy and the Balkanizing of the Syrian state.
Recent events in Egypt highlight the need for increased attention on the flourishing (floundering?) Arab Spring. For where viable opportunities for democratic governance once flourished, an age old balance between religion and secularism is threatening the fragile democratic processes and institutions of these newly democratic nations. The U.S. can work with the current situation in order to help both our international image, as well as the struggling Arab states.