Executive Summary
The United States’ relations with India are on the brink of antagonism, especially as India faces global pressure from Pakistan and Russia. In August this year, President Trump substantially increased tariffs on India in response to India’s purchasing of Russian oil. Simultaneously, conflict between India and Pakistan has worsened. Still, members of Trump’s cabinet have shown indirect support for Pakistan during this time. Thus, the United States is in a position to lose critical allyship with India. India might then fall into partnership with Russia and China, challenging the global predominance of the United States. To forgo this result,a reduction in tariffs to India and the designation of a special envoy to mediate the India-Pakistan conflict could be a potential solution
Context: US-India Relationship
The United States’ relations with India have historically swung between cooperation and estrangement, the latter due to India’s nuclear proliferation. President Donald Trump met with the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, for the first time in 2017; they emphasized the strength of a joint US-India defense partnership. Cooperation has continued through February 2025 as Trump and Modi discussed security and trade issues. However, in August 2025 the Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on India, fracturing the US-India relationship. The tariff then doubled to 50%. Trump cited Indian purchase of Russian oil as justification for these tariffs Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade counselor, has also insulted India on social media. Additionally, President Trump recently invited Pakistan’s army chief to the White House following a terrorist attack on Indian soil. India blamed this attack on the Pakistanis. Tensions then increased following US sustainment of spare parts for Pakistani weapons. President Trump recently claimed that India and Pakistan have avoided nuclear war as a result of his tariff policies.
These recent actions have harmed the US-India relationship. India is a crucial strategic ally of the United States, especially in its battle against a rising China. Prime Minister Modi met with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in September amid Russia and China’s push for a new world order. If this trend is to continue, the United States will lose a vital ally in the fight for global dominance. Trump has recently appointed a trusted advisor, Sergio Gor, as ambassador to New Delhi; still, the current situation requires de-escalation.
The following analysis will consider policy solutions aimed at reducing the growing animosity between the two countries. I will present a cost-benefit analysis of existing policy options by weighing the best evidence for and against each policy.
Cost Benefit Analysis of Current Proposals
Suggestion 1: Finalize a Trade Agreement with Reduced Tariffs
It is possible to reach a trade agreement with India in which the United States reduces its tariffs. An ideal agreement would have India compromise by lowering tariffs on American products. India should further commit to investing in the US energy and defense sectors. This plan is already made more feasible by India’s reduction of Russian oil purchases. From June to July of this year, India’s Russian oil purchases decreased 24 percent. Simultaneously, their imports of US oil increased. This proposal is weakened by the US-Pakistan relationship. The United States continues to sustain Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jets with a $379 million package and will maintain spare parts for Pakistan’s Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles. These weapons have historically been used against India and will likely complicate negotiations for a trade deal.
Suggestion 2: Designate Advisors to Plan for Remedied Relationship
A diplomatic approach would have the United States designate advisors to work with Indian delegates for a path to reconciliation. This would include a reduction of the US insults targeted to India on social media. The United States should also host Indian delegates in the White House – a move to counter potential hostility arising from the Trump meeting with the Pakistani army chief. President Trump has already designated Sergio Gor as ambassador and envoy to India. Gor has met with Modi in discussion of defense, trade, and technology. This supports the feasibility of further diplomatic engagement. However, Modi’s recent meeting with Xi Jinping and Putin continues to strain this relationship. Furthermore, President Trump has expressed frustration with the anti-American policies of BRICS. Until Modi has solidified his China strategy, diplomatic relations will remain tense.
Suggestion 3: Leverage Indian American Diaspora
The United States may also focus on leveraging the large Indian American diaspora to build societal relations between the two countries. An increase in institutions designed to facilitate relations between the two countries would prevent misunderstandings in cooperation between the two countries. This effort might include the development of forums to coordinate American and Indian business, political, and media elites. Educating Americans on Indian culture and politics would encourage policy makers to engage in a more cooperative approach. This suggestion faces many challenges – English penetration in India remains low, as is the number of Americans who study in India. Additionally, in a precarious moment of tension, a more immediate strategy is necessary to facilitate the US-India rapprochement.
Proposed Solution
An effective policy to counter US-Indian animosity requires a two-pronged approach. A successful trade deal is necessary to reverse the tariff war. However, the US continues to support India’s rival, Pakistan, through military support deals. Simultaneously, the India-Pakistan conflict continues to worsen. This is evidenced by the recent death of 11 Pakistani soldiers, and the Pakistani Defense Minister’s warning for a potential war on October 9. If a trade deal is hindered by US support of Pakistan, it is necessary for the United States to clarify its policy on Pakistan with Indian officials. It is valuable for the United States to continue its contracts with Pakistan, given Pakistan’s access to Central Asia and possession of nuclear weapons. Still, India will likely only be willing to engage with the United States if they are confident of US support of India. Such a clarification requires extra diplomatic engagement with India. Suggestion 2 is thus necessary to increase the chances of a successful trade deal. This might be implemented through a special envoy specifically tasked with managing the India-Pakistan conflict. Through the efforts of a special envoy and continued efforts of Ambassador Gor, India will come to understand that the US values peace in India. Otherwise, Modi may continue to look toward Russia and China for support, in turn threatening the US geo-strategic position.
Thus, a strategy coordinating both suggestions 1 and 2 is necessary to facilitate a positive US-India relationship. A dual approach is the best method to solve economic disputes while balancing the complicated geo-politics of the region.