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Cyber-attacks on critical U.S. infrastructure pose a tremendous threat to the American population and government. For years, the threat has grown in the form of state-sponsored cyber attackers and threats via data mining and malware coming through applications and social media. The current United States infrastructure is not sufficiently prepared or resilient to withstand attacks that can cause damage to critical segments of the medical, financial, power, and governmental sectors. Experts suggest that radical updates to infrastructure and improved security practices are required to prepare adequately for state-sponsored attacks or undermining from near-peer rivals.
In the aftermath of the 2020 global pandemic, inflation has swept across economies worldwide. While economists expected the consumer price index in the United States to rise 5.9% in the past year, it has instead risen 6.2%. This rapid rise in rates is creating a notable impact on food prices. High prices are affecting market sales and charity operations. Responses to the market inflation may either alleviate or aggravate long-term effects on the post-pandemic economy.
At the present moment, Cuba does not represent any foreign policy focus for the Biden administration. Whether or not it should become a priority is unimportant; Cuba currently represents an opportunity for the United States to demonstrate to the rest of the world that it can harness soft power in situations where military force is impractical or unnecessary.
Monthly Archives: September 2020
The People’s Republic of China has been recruiting retired intelligence officers to leak classified information to the Chinese government. In just the latest part of uncovering this trend, the United States arrested Alexander Yuk Ching Ma, a former CIA officer, on August 14, 2020. In response to the incident, Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers commented, “The trail of Chinese espionage is long and, sadly, strewn with former American intelligence officers who betrayed their colleagues, their country and its liberal democratic values to support an authoritarian communist regime.” Chinese intelligence has been using a combination of traditional espionage techniques, artificial intelligence, and misinformation to achieve its recruiting and espionage goals. The Chinese government has had clear successes in hiring spies from within the United States, and if this trend continues, it will undermine American intelligence and national security aims.
On October 25, 2012, The New York Times published an eye-opening report on an extensive, billion-dollar business empire constructed by relatives of China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao. Three months later, the Times revealed it had been undergoing intense cyber attacks even before the report was publicly released. Cooperating with AT&T, the FBI, and a leading cybersecurity firm, the Times pinned the digital break-ins on Chinese hackers, adding that the Chinese military was likely involved.
In the last Presidential debate of the 2012 election cycle, both President Obama and Governor Romney referred to the U.S. national debt as a growing threat to security. These claims echo the 2011 remarks of Admiral Michael Mullin, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, asserting that the national debt is the greatest security threat currently facing the United States. In addition to severe economic problems, the inability to resolve the debt issue may result in a weakened ability to pursue military and diplomatic missions, an increase in domestic human security problems, and an expansion of foreign influence regarding U.S. policy.
Events in the Middle East and North Africa in recent months indicate a major shift in strategy by al-Qaeda and its affiliates. While many officials mistake this shift as a sign of al-Qaeda’s looming defeat, it actually displays a rapidly growing danger to U.S. national security. Al-Qaeda’s new ability to capitalize on instability amid preexisting rebellions is quite disturbing, and is occurring in several locations. The place of most significance for al-Qaeda is Syria, but a look at their ongoing late-phase operation in Mali can offer some insights into future developments in Syria.
On Tuesday, President Ahmadinejad accused the United States and “internal enemies” of waging a “psychological war” against Iran in an attempt to stop Iranians from ditching the weakening rial for U.S. dollars. This “war” refers to the significant problems Iran faces, including the U.S.-led economic sanctions, a threatened Israeli military strike, and now internal protests. While this perceived psychological war against Iran has yet to turn into a physical conflict, the United States and Israel must be aware that increasing pressure may cause the Iranian military and government to act erratically, which may lead to Iranian military action.
Iran’s nuclear program has again entered the spotlight of U.S. foreign policy debates in a election cycle in which foreign policy has taken the backseat. The current debates often result in three scenarios: 1) Iran gives up its nuclear program, 2) Israel (with or without U.S. assistance) makes a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, postponing Iran’s progress, or 3) The parties involved wait until Iran develops nuclear weapons and thus assure a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel. Essentially, these scenarios ultimately result in either Iran ending its nuclear program or an unavoidable war between Israel (and therefore the U.S.) and Iran. These scenarios leave no room for the possibility of a nuclear Iran without war.
The recent debate over the Affordable Care Act, known to critics as Obamacare, highlights the growing divide in U.S. politics and the political culture that idolizes politicians with a ‘no-compromises’ stance. This was made abundantly clear through the fight over the constitutionality of the healthcare law as well as the recent Republican presidential primaries where Mitt Romney was accusingly labeled a “moderate” by competing candidates. Romney had to fight each surging challenger’s accusations of being moderate and continues to struggle against hard-liners of his party. This fight to assuage ideological worries within one of the major U.S. parties shows the pull away from the center towards the more hard-line views.
Afghanistan will face two major issues this year. The more publicized issue is Pakistan’s refusal to open up their supply routes into Afghanistan for NATO use. The lesser known issue is the devastatingly poor poppy harvest. Both of these problems will create unique challenges for NATO forces. A brief examination of the problems will show points of concern that need to be addressed.
The attack in France this past week at the hands of the terrorist Mohammed Merah is reawakening Europe to the realities of radicalization. This event should not be viewed as the beginning of a complex new terror campaign domestically but should be seen as an infrequent reality of war with terror groups. The majority of attempted domestic attacks have been unsuccessful for a number of reasons, and most people who are successfully recruited end up going to conflict areas in order to train and act out their new sense of ideology rather than stay in their country. A quick overview of some aspects of the radicalization process will reveal that there is no trend towards coordinated attacks or rampant radicalization in the West.
When thinking security threats in Latin America, one has to think about the bloody war on drugs raging in Mexico. Although Mexico is currently the battle arena of the war on drugs, Colombia previously held that position. At the time, the United States and Colombia worked together militarily to combat this threat. Their efforts resulted in the significant weakening of the Colombian drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) and the subsequent rise of DTOs in Mexico. Removing the DTO threat in Colombia did not stop the drug trade in the Americas but merely displaced it, moving it along trade routes toward its largest consumer: the United States.
Next Monday the Prime Minister of Israel will arrive in Washington, D.C. for an important security meeting with the President of the United States, Barack Obama. The focus of the meeting will be the ever-rising threat of a nuclear Iran. According to Israeli newspapers, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will request that the U.S. deliver an explicit military threat to Iran following the meeting. On the other hand, White House reports say that the President will likely want more time for the current sanctions and diplomatic actions to take effect.
According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, the White House and Pentagon are considering several plans to reduce its nuclear stockpile. The plans have not been presented to President Obama yet, but he will in the near future. The United States is currently under treaty obligations that require it to reduce the nuclear stockpile from the current 1,800 to 1,550 by 2018. However, the Obama administration is considering three plans to reduce this number further. The first plan calls for a moderate reduction in nuclear warheads which would leave between 1,000 and 1,100 intact. The second would reduce the number to around 700. The final, and most drastic, would reduce the U.S. nuclear stockpile to between 300 and 400 weapons.
The future of the War in Afghanistan became more complex on 1 February when Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced that the U.S. would end its combat role early by summer 2013. This significant development means that the counter-insurgency campaign that NATO is fighting will rely heavily on Afghan National Forces to control Afghan territory. The fate of the mission against the Al-Qaeda/Taliban forces and the stability of Afghanistan is depending on the success of this transition.
Michael Slawson, in his article “Gitmo: It’s Not Even Over When We Say It’s Over,” draws a predictable but flawed conclusion in his analysis of the Obama administration’s apparent decision not to close the Detention Center. He contends that holding and interrogating detainees without legal charges and in violation of legal rights is not only bad policy but a betrayal of American values. And there’s the flaw. Like the Obama administration, and the Clinton administration before them, Slawson considers the terrorist-detainees at Guantanamo Bay criminals when in fact they are prisoners of war.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
The subject of marijuana growth, distribution and use has been a hot topic in our society today. There are many arguments both for and against the legalization of marijuana in the United States on a federal scale and ideas on how to monitor and tax marijuana that is legal in certain states. When observing cannabis policy debates among our politicians and leaders the focus is on home-grown cannabis and cannabis produced and transported to the United States from Mexico; small Caribbean islands are hardly on anyone’s mind.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
What are the implications of the current “trade war” between the United States and China? Where will the continuing negotiations lead each of these countries in their development, and relationships with one another as the top two-producing countries in the world?
Monthly Archives: April 2019
The endgame for the Taliban is relatively straightforward. They have two main objectives and are determined to meet them. Their two objectives are to get all foreign troops out of the country and to implement Sharia law throughout all of Afghanistan. They will continue to wage terror on US troops and the Afghan people until these objectives are met.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Putin proved a major influencer in the US presidential election in 2016. Russian influence on the election first appeared four years before the actual election, when two Russians, working for the Internet Research Agency, acquired knowledge about US social media to help provide information to the Russian propaganda machine (Shane, Scott; Mazzetti, Mark. 2018). Additionally, his Russian spy agency, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) hacked the Democratic National Committee’s network to further reach his goal of getting Americans to vote for the candidate he wanted to see win.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Background of US-EU Relations Regarding Iran
Monthly Archives: January 2019
The conflict in Ukraine is very important to American, NATO, and Russian security. Russia has been testing its limits by annexing Crimea in 2014 and then by participating in the Ukrainian conflict. With sanctions affecting the Russian economy, Russia is using different tools to circumnavigate the sanctions by using China. With Russian forces in Syria fighting extremists, and with Russian involvement in Ukraine, Russia is able to use these conflicts as leverage against the United States.
Monthly Archives: December 2018
This week, a member of the notorious Central American gang MS-13 was apprehended trying to cross the border into the US with the migrant caravan. This has sparked a resurgence of the dialogue about the presence and danger MS-13 poses to the United States. One of the key points crucial to understanding MS-13 is that it is not an organized group as the mob or drug cartels are. MS-13 has become more of a methodology or ideology for gang members. There is no evidence of any sort of hierarchy within the gang. Where the gang exists, the hierarchy is very localized and most violence is committed against other gang members, defectors, and any others who openly oppose them or resist joining them.
Monthly Archives: December 2018
On December 4, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced plans to exit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 60 days, citing Russian noncompliance. If Russia does not return “to full and verifiable compliance” by the deadline, the United States will start a six month formal withdrawal process (Borger). The treaty went into force in 1987 and bans United States and Russia from developing “ground-launched cruise missiles” with ranges between 310 and 3,400 miles (Ward). The United States posits that “for years,” Russia “developed and deployed a ground launched cruise missile system, the SSC-8, also known as the 9M729” (Erlanger and Harris). NATO allies unanimously agreed with this stance.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
In 1971, the thralls of the Vietnam war, President Nixon declared a new type of war: “The War on Drugs.” Ever since, the United States has fought to reduce both supply of and demand for illegal drugs.[i] Despite recent initiatives decriminalizing marijuana in many states and Canada’s new law legalizing cannabis, illegal drug use, convictions in the United States, and violence both in Mexico and throughout the numerous drug corridors is up.[ii] The history of the War on Drugs illustrates the difficulty in responding to the issue, and the complexity of possible answers.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
The new deal negotiated by the countries of North America as a potential replacement of NAFTA has received a fair mixture of praise and criticism. The new trade agreement, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA), comes as the result of President Donald Trump’s major campaign promise to reshape NAFTA in order to better the United States’ position within NAFTA. There are a few major changes to this agreement that will benefit all involved parties, but as with most agreements, there are some criticisms that will be studied as it moves forward.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Just this past week, President Donald Trump announced that the United States, Canada, and Mexico have reached a compromise on the long-promised NAFTA renegotiations. Although a step down from a total rebranding of NAFTA, as President Trump had promised on the campaign trail, there are several new aspects of the deal that experts from all three countries both cheer and lament [1]. It has been renamed, now the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which itself has been criticized for its difficulty to say[2]. Notwithstanding names and promises, NAFTA has been a favorite scapegoat for President Trump for a long time, and now he has the chance to wave it in the face of his critics and attempt to win over more support.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
The United States has been warned of a “cyber-Pearl Harbor” for years. Earlier in 2018, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats announced that “the lights are blinking red.”[1] Russia’s attempts at interference in U.S. elections has already been confirmed by the U.S. intelligence community, and the theft of American intellectual property is a daily occurrence. The world is already “weaponizing the Internet,” and the United States needs to adapt or lose its edge.[2]
Monthly Archives: September 2018
There is a cooperation between five major countries in the world that was created to share top secret information in an effort to better protect the world’s best interests. Known informally as Five Eyes, this collaboration of intelligence organizations exists officially under the UKUSA treaty. The term “Five Eyes” is a shortened version of the very long name “Aus/Can/NZ/UK/Eyes Only” (UK Defense Journal) and officially includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Stemming from The Special Relationship that the United States and the United Kingdom share, each country takes the surveillance of different regions of the world, with UK focusing on “Europe, Western Russia, Middle East and Hong Kong [while] the United States [watches over] the Middle East, China, Russia, Africa, and the Caribbean [Australia and New Zealand share] South and East Asia and the South Pacific.” Canada takes charge of parts of Russia, China, and focuses on Latin America (UK Defense Journal).