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Recently, Xi Jinping, the leader of China, and Vladimir Putin, leader of Russia, met at the Kremlin in Russia to participate in talks of their strategic vision for the future. This visit comes amid the still ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and raises eyebrows for state leaders around the world watching closely as relationships between China and Russia grow tighter. The meeting was advertised as a way for the “self-described friends” to show their personal support for each other.
Although first becoming active years before Russia’s “special military operation”, Wagner Group, the private military contractor and parastatal arm of the Russian military has become increasingly visible since the invasion of Ukraine. The PMC is a convenient asset for the Kremlin, however recent critical comments made by Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin about top Russian military leadership indicate developing growing pains in the relationship between the Russian government and Wagner Group.
As the world approaches the one year anniversary of the Ukraine and Russian War, Russia is indicating they have no intention to step back any time soon. In light of the extensive sanctions against Russian interests, people, and their ability to conduct international banking, President Vladimir V. Putin has linked Russia’s banking system to the same banking institutions as Iran.
The United States now faces an increasing strain on its reserve supply of armaments due to the war in Ukraine. Since the conflict began, the United States has sent over $17.5 billion USD in military aid. These packages have included everything from radar and stinger anti-aircraft rocket launchers to cold weather gear and body armor. As the spending for Ukraine increases, predictions indicate that reserves of certain weapons systems and munitions will soon be depleted to sub-optimal levels required for the United States to effectively respond to a direct conflict. Current supply levels remain adequate for certain armaments; however, this issue will be compounded by the slow adjustment of manufacturing to replenish weapon stocks.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dragged on far beyond the timeline projected by political scientists, but it may be drawing to a close. What that end might be is yet to be seen, but there are fewer and fewer ways out of this conflict as Russia commits more and more resources and troops to the ‘special military exercise’ that has resulted in at least 10,000 casualties and many more missing, as well as over 10% of the population of Ukraine currently displaced. With American troops part of the forward placement on the East of the NATO Alliance and nuclear threats renewed, Putin may soon force American intervention.
Every year since 1975, a world economic summit has been held to discuss and brainstorm the current challenges facing the world. It has evolved since then into what we know today as the G7. There are seven member nations who make up this council including the United States and the current Presiding nation of Germany. The 26th of this month will mark the beginning of a new summit meeting in the Bavarian Alps with the massive backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Although it does not wield the policy making power like the EU or the UN, the G7 will play a huge role in setting the tone for the remainder of the war. Ministers from other countries and representatives from the EU have been invited to take part in the summit as well. Since Russia began sending troops to the Ukrainian border, many emergency meetings have been convened in response to the Russian act of aggression on Ukraine. This will add to the buildup of this year’s G7 summit which will like showcase severe punishments and a doubling down of its strict behavior towards Russia.
Russia aims to resurrect its geopolitical dominance by amassing troops on the Ukrainian border. Conflict began in 2014 when street protests in Ukraine overthrew Russian-supported President Victor Yanukovych. In retaliation, Russia annexed Crimea sparking violence in eastern Ukraine. Since 2014 Russia has made substantial advances culminating with 175,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. Intelligence reports vary on the exact military capabilities of Russian forces, but unanimously agree that they are sufficient to overpower the Ukrainian military. Reports from intelligence sources indicate increased Russian propaganda in Ukraine, attempting to convince Ukrainians that Russia will benevolently liberate them from their western-controlled leaders. Intelligence officials urge Ukraine to strategically resist Russian aggression, abstaining from provocative actions that Russia could misinterpret for grounds of invasion.
Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader, has essentially threatened secession with his statements on October 8th that the Serb Republic will remove itself from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s armed forces, top judiciary body, and tax administration. Dodik has also said that the Serb Republic will recreate its army in the process. Dodik’s announcements violate the U.S.-led Dayton Accords, which ended the Bosnian War in 1995 and stipulated that the once warring groups would be one sovereign country.
In July of this year, the Orbán administration banned LGBTQ content from appearing in school materials or television shows for people under 18. This policy caused a huge uproar in many European Union countries, which see this policy as homophobic. This LGBTQ discriminatory policy does not support the Biden Administration view nor American values of preventing discrimination based on gender identity or sexual orientation.
With an export value of 33.7 billion U.S. dollars in crude oil to China alone in 2019, the Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil trade. However, due to the increase in the overall Russian climate, the oil industry is experiencing complications. As one of the primary sources of income for Russia’s economy, its government has made and will continue to make significant efforts to curb the effects of the complications and prevent future problems. The increase in climate temperature has damaged the infrastructure of the mines and plants responsible for oil production, creating a need for a redirection of funds and potentially dangerous environmental effects, thus, narrating a cautionary tale to other nations with similar carbon emissions rates.
Recent Russian cyber-attacks on public and private U.S. sectors have put cyber security into the forefront of American thought and public concern. While cyber-attacks are aimed hourly at countries, companies, and individuals, accusations of cyber-attacks between the United States and Russia have created a digital Cold War in a race to see who can exploit the most vulnerabilities in the infrastructure and supply chains of the opposing power.
Monthly Archives: August 2020
Russians went to the polls July 1st to vote on a referendum that will make sweeping changes to their constitution, most notably greatly expanding President Vladimir Putin’s federal power and extending his potential presidency to the year 2036.
In the wake of the 2014 Euromaidan uprisings in Ukraine, comedian and actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy created, produced, and starred in “Servant of the People”, a TV series about an unknown history teacher winning the presidential elections. The show is a satirical take on the corruption and inefficiency in Ukrainian politics and struck a chord with Ukrainians at a politically fraught moment in which the country found itself at a crossroads between Russia and the West. Zelenskiy’s character was portrayed as a virtuous public servant who railed against the corruption that had hampered the nation.
Monthly Archives: June 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has infected over two and a half million people, with numbers quickly rising each day. Impacting the respiratory functions of the body, this virus ravages the elderly and those with underlying health conditions such as asthma and diabetes. Since its spread began in December of 2019, millions of people world-wide have quarantined, billions of dollars in business have been lost, and consumers have been directed or forced to stay home. In the U.S. alone, more than twenty-two million people have applied for unemployment, and there are estimates that the unemployment rate could hover around twenty percent for a few quarters. The true impact will remain unknown until the virus has completely run its course. With countries at their tipping point, the U.S. must consider the change of course the virus is taking and the new policies required to combat it.
Monthly Archives: December 2019
“Aside from a small number of low-level plots either thwarted or failed, there have not been any successful terrorist attacks on Italian soil since 9/11, a trend that has remained true since the rise of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in 2014” (Vidino 2017). Why is this the case? Why has Italy not been on the receiving end of recent brutal terror attacks in the same way that many other European nations have? By this research, I attempt to understand what Italy has done to mitigate terror threats better than other European nations. To do this, it is important to distinguish luck from planning, as one theory purports that there is no inherent piece of the Italian system that has reduced the threat of terrorism. My research indicates that a series of factors are important, including policing, border policies, historical context, radicalization issues, and governmental practices and policies. Italy excels in many areas where other nations do not, occasionally at the expense of due process and human rights. In this research design, Italy will be compared across Europe as a whole, the EU, and Western Europe in different situations. However, these strengths in comprehensive Italian counterterrorism are still fallible; it would be unwise to predict that these trends are foolproof as the potential for terror always exists, especially as growing numbers of second-generation immigrants experience the potential for radicalization.
Monthly Archives: December 2019
Protests in Tbilisi ignited in Juneafter Russian lawmaker Sergei Gavrilov, deputy of the Russian State Duma, sat in the Georgian parliamentary speaker’s seat and addressed the audience in Russian. Protesters were not only angry about the Kremlin’s overreach into Georgia, but also with the Georgian Dream Party, which protesters claim has failed to adequately protect the country from Russian aggression. “The Russia factor was the trigger for this crisis, but it was not the cause,” rather the breaking point was “very polarized domestic politics in which the opposition plays the Russian card to discredit the government” according to Georgia expert Thomas de Waal (Higgins).
Monthly Archives: November 2019
Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) is a Basque separatist group that formed in 1959. For a half-century, ETA actively perpetrated over a hundred terror attacks across Spain and France. The ultimate political goal was that of a unified and independent Basque land that comprises the Basque region in northern Spain and southwestern France. There is very little debate over ETA’s actions throughout the second half of the 20th century. However, recent events have called the US foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designation into question. The proclaimed cessation of all paramilitary operations and ultimate disbanding of any political aims and structure in 2018 would make the FTO designation pointless (Jones 2018). Because of the stated disbanding of the group, it would be a mere technicality to remove ETA from the list of FTOs – nothing gained, nothing lost. However, ETA as an idea rather than populated organization still creates cause for concern. That in mind, it would be useful to compare the current activities and influences of ETA with similar groups that are not listed as FTOs to make the case that ETA should no longer be listed. Other similar groups exist with even a stated modus operandi that are not listed. A designation as FTO also further complicates genuine political activities surrounding Basque separatism that are legitimate and unaffiliated with ETA.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
Abkhazia’s elections headed to a run-off after a tie on August 25. The run-off contest was held on September 8 between incumbent Raul Khajimba and opposition candidate Alkhas Kvitsinia. Khajimba received 47.3 percent of the vote, beating out Kvitsinia’s 46.17 percent. Kvitsinia’s team disputed the results over Article 19 from the law “On the Election of the President of the Republic of Abkhazia,” which “ambiguously describes the protocol” to determine the winner of a second-round election (1). His argument—which Abkhazia’s supreme court struck down—was that the law requires the winner to receive over 50 percent of the vote.
Monthly Archives: October 2019
The current laws of cybersecurity are contained in a document known as the Convention on Cybercrime, also called the Budapest Convention. A couple of the main points in the Convention are that cybercrime can be an international concern, as opposed to being a concern on a country-by-country basis. This means that the United States may have to step in to help enforce cyber laws that may be legal in the United States, but illegal elsewhere, and that other countries can monitor each other’s’ internet activity under the guise of trying to find people who may be breaking foreign laws while residing in the United States. This, however, also allows the United States to have greater control of the Internet on its own shores, as anyone breaking copyright law internationally to proliferate materials could still be caught and reprimanded. The Convention can lead to many complex issues, but can also allow countries to maintain Internet freedom in the way they see fit. With the Internet becoming a global issue, there must be global standards for it, and the Budapest Convention allows global standards for the issue to exist (Anderson).
Monthly Archives: October 2019
“With more than half of all Arctic coastline along its northern shores, Russia has long sought economic and military dominance in part of the world where as much as $35 trillion worth of untapped oil and natural gas could be lurking.” (Dillow)
Monthly Archives: September 2019
A nuclear explosion rocked an offshore platform in the White Sea on August 8, killing five nuclear scientists and two Defense Ministry employees. The following weekend, the Kremlin only provided small details and contradictory information, an approach which added to the suspicion surrounding the incident. Finally, on August 12, Vyacheslav Solovyov, scientific director of the Russian Federal Nuclear Center revealed that these scientists were working on “small-sized energy sources using radioactive fissile materials” at the Nyonoksa military range (Smith). Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear agency, later divulged that the nuclear system included “isotope power sources within a liquid propulsion system” (Smith).
Monthly Archives: September 2019
The tides of terrorism are reaching a number of nations with increasing severity, including the islands of the UK. With heightened tensions due to a number of terrorist attacks within the last few years and divisive rhetoric from both lawmakers and the general public, a sense of vulnerability is emerging.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
What began as the straightforward territorial claim and annexation of Crimea in 2014 has now become a protracted, multidimensional conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. While the two countries continue to exchange economic, political, and physical blows, Ukraine has moved its fight for permanent independence into the sphere of religion.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
FaceApp recently came back into vogue after going viral for the first time in 2017. FaceApp uses AI to alter a person’s face with various filters (Giancaspro). This time around, however, many people began to realize that FaceApp was collecting metadata on all of the pictures they were uploading to the app for image processing. One of the main concerns of the app was that there was evidence that the app did all image processing server-side, giving FaceApp access to copies of pictures uploaded to it. These concerns were further exacerbated when consumers found out that FaceApp was created by a Russian company owned by a previous executive of Yandex. The CEO of the FaceApp company assured the media that FaceApp does send data to Russia, and evidence suggests that this is true (Carman).
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Peace Prospects for Kosovo and Serbia: A Historical Context.
Last month, Argentina and Great Britain commemorated the 30th anniversary of the Falkland Islands Conflict in which Argentina attempted to take possession of the island about 250 miles off its coast in the Atlantic Ocean. Argentina’s claims for the the Falklands, or the Islas Malvinas as the Argentines call them, go back into the 19th century despite British control of the islands since 1833 (with the exception of the short time Argentina “re-occupied” them before Britain forcibly removed Argentina’s forces from the islands weeks later). Although the Falkland Conflict reestablished British control of the islands, Argentina has continued to fight for them in other ways, such as including the territorial claim for the Malvinas in its reformed constitution in 1994.
The attack in France this past week at the hands of the terrorist Mohammed Merah is reawakening Europe to the realities of radicalization. This event should not be viewed as the beginning of a complex new terror campaign domestically but should be seen as an infrequent reality of war with terror groups. The majority of attempted domestic attacks have been unsuccessful for a number of reasons, and most people who are successfully recruited end up going to conflict areas in order to train and act out their new sense of ideology rather than stay in their country. A quick overview of some aspects of the radicalization process will reveal that there is no trend towards coordinated attacks or rampant radicalization in the West.
Recently the European Union has been building up to the implementation of “crippling” new sanctions against the government of Iran. These new sanctions were finally revealed on January 23 and their primary focus is on limiting Iran’s oil export capability. Despite the strong rhetoric, these sanctions will not truly be effective in the short-term as they bar only new oil contracts with Iran while honoring current contracts until 1 July. Why are we seeing this apparent weakening of the economic hammer against Iran? Why not simply crush Iran into submission and force them into immediate negotiations? The basic answer is that the West is not capable of dealing effectively with Iran right now and needs more time to prepare.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Ireland soon found itself in a civil war, fighting for independence from England. This civil war lasted in two main phases from 1912 to 1923. The first phase, the Irish War of Independence, lasted from 1919 to 1921 and the second phase, the Irish Civil War, lasted from 1922-1923.4 Ultimately Ireland was defeated but Britain agreed to split Ireland into two; Northern Ireland remained a part of the United Kingdom and under British control, and Ireland (the southern portion of the island) became a free state. At the beginning of the civil war the Irish Volunteers renamed themselves the Irish Republican Army and served as the militant branch of the rebel government. In 1921 the government signed a treaty with England known as the Anglo-Irish Treaty, which temporarily established peace and an Irish Free state. After the signing of the treaty the IRA experienced its first of many secessions, the IRA split into two different groups: Pro-Treaty IRA and Anti-Treaty IRA.4 Following the Irish Civil War and the establishment of Ireland as its own republic, many members of the Anti-Treaty IRA were killed or captured and the remaining went underground and the IRA was once again a single organization.4
Monthly Archives: July 2019
With talks currently in place between the two countries in preparation for further integration, it is important to understand how both Russia and Belarus got to this point in their somewhat strained relationship. Looking at the two countries from a westerner’s perspective, one might think that the two countries have always been allied forces with a one-track mind, but when you dig a little deeper you may find that appearances aren’t always true to what is really going on underneath.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Until recently, the relationship between the United States and Turkey has been stable. Lately however, Turkey has been taking actions contrary to those that would uphold strong relations with the US. This recent unnerving trend has increased tensions between the two countries and tightened Turkish ties to Russia.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Russian investigative journalist Ivan Golunov was on his way to meet a source for his latest article on June 6 when he was detained by the police. They took him into custody after finding mephedrone, an illegal designer drug, in his backpack. When Golunov appeared in court two days later, his charges had increased from drug possession to drug trafficking, potentially a 10- to 20-year sentence, after the court accused him of having a drug lab in his apartment (Hodge, Nathan). Some, however, weren’t buying it. None of Golunov’s friends had ever as much as seen him drink alcohol, let alone get high, and people familiar with his apartment confirmed that the pictures authorities had shared of the drug lab couldn’t be anywhere near it (Kovalev, Alexey).
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Russia has a long history of cyber warfare. InvestigateRussia.org lists several of the important cyberattacks fueled by Russia during the 21st century. The Committee to Investigate Russia is a non-profit organization that worked during the Robert Mueller investigation as an aggregation of news pertaining to Russia’s affiliation with the US, and while no longer active still exists as culmination of information having to do with post-Soviet Russia.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Thousands of protesters took to the streets after Russian lawmaker Sergei Gavrilov, deputy of the Russian State Duma, sat in the Georgian parliamentary speaker’s seat and addressed the audience in Russian. Gavrilov was there as president of the Interparliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy (IAO), “a body set up by the Greek parliament in 1993 to foster relationships between Christian Orthodox lawmakers” (Antidze). Protests cut IAO meetings short.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Tensions and violence in Ireland have existed for as long as it’s been populated. Ireland has been inhabited since 6,000 BC and has been the home of the Celts since 500 BC. In 300 AD, Ireland was introduced to Christianity and soon after the Catholic Church sent missionaries to organize an Irish Church; circa 600 AD, Catholicism became the country’s national religion.1
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Kazakhstan held elections on June 9. For the first time in the former Soviet country’s history, the ballot did not include Nursultan Nazarbayev, who reigned as president since Kazakhstan’s 1991 creation. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev won the election with 70.9% of the vote. Amirzhan Kossanov, the main opposition candidate, came in a distant second at 16.2%, and Daniya Yespayeva, Kazakhstan’s first female presidential candidate, came in third at 5.05% (Vesterbye).
Monthly Archives: June 2019
Eleven reporters from Kommersant quit on May 20 after two of their colleagues were fired for refusing to reveal their sources in a report about “a possible change of leadership in the upper chamber of parliament” (RFE/RL). These reporters made up the entire political staff at Kommersant, one of Russia’s most prominent newspapers. Another 180 staff signed a joint letter that denounced the newspaper’s shareholders for “destroying one of Russia’s best media outlets” to make “short-term political gains” and “that until further notice, Kommersant would not report on any Russian political news” (“HRW: Kommersant Shake-Up…”, Soric).
Monthly Archives: May 2019
Recent developments in diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia have greatly impacted the nature of arms control in the two nuclear giants. Historically guided by various treaties, including the START, SALT, and INF agreements, nuclear tension has increased as the 2019 withdrawal from the INF Treaty by both Russia and the US has opened the door to expanded proliferation.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
Russia and the US are the world’s top two possessors of nuclear weapons, holding 92 percent of nuclear weapons globally (Ploughshares Fund). Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal and some of its modernizations, such as the SSC-8 ground-launched cruise missile system, led the US to plan an exit from the INF Treaty in August 2019.
Monthly Archives: May 2019
On April 11, Russia announced that the RS-28 Sarmat missile reached its final testing phase (TASS, “Putin: Russia’s ICBM…”). The missile, an upgrade of the SS-18, is set to start production in 2021. Nicknamed “Satan 2” by NATO, it “has practically no range restrictions” and “is untroubled by even the most advanced missile defense systems” according to Putin (O’Connor).
Monthly Archives: April 2019
As for the prospects of the presidential race, initial reports at the end of 2018 had Tymoshenko at the top of the pool of candidates. She began making inroads with many foreign leaders, stating via Facebook that “The presidential election is approaching, and it would be irrational for a newly elected president to use up their precious work hours on building bridges and establishing contacts when it can be done now.” However, with the emergence of Volodymyr Zelensky, an anti-establishment comedian, as a leading candidate, Tymoshenko will be forced to adjust her approach as the popular opposition candidate. The first round of elections take place on March 31st with a possible second round of elections following in April. Despite having maintained a strong lead in the polls for months, Tymoshenko has slipped into a tie with current President Poroshenko, with both trailing Zelensky by more than 5 points (Jacobsen).
Monthly Archives: April 2019
In what researchers at Oxford Internet Institute described as “the most globally advanced case of computational propaganda,” Ukraine was Europe’s most frequent target of disinformation campaigns in 2018 (Bohdanova). According to the EU vs Disinfo database, Ukraine had “461 references among a total of 1,000 disinformation cases reported in 2018” (“Ukraine Under Information Fire”). Some of these cases included Kremlin-based false reports that Ukrainian authorities planned to construct a 120 kilometer waterway that would isolate Crimea from Ukraine. Another story surfaced that US secret services and the Ukrainian government were working together to poison water in Donbas (Zoria).
Monthly Archives: March 2019
On March 31, Ukrainians will head to the polls to elect their next president. Leading the candidates are incumbent Petro Poroshenko, former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and newcomer to the political field, comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who are polling within 10 percentage points of each other.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Putin proved a major influencer in the US presidential election in 2016. Russian influence on the election first appeared four years before the actual election, when two Russians, working for the Internet Research Agency, acquired knowledge about US social media to help provide information to the Russian propaganda machine (Shane, Scott; Mazzetti, Mark. 2018). Additionally, his Russian spy agency, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) hacked the Democratic National Committee’s network to further reach his goal of getting Americans to vote for the candidate he wanted to see win.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Russia is a longtime ally of Syria, with relations dating back to the 1970s Soviet Union (Rahman-Jones). In 2015, Russia began supporting the Assad regime with weapons, air support, and ground troops. While Russian President Vladimir Putin claims the goal of Russia’s action in Syria is to fight terrorism, the US-led coalition claims Russian airstrikes have targeted “the non-IS rebel forces battling Assad’s government,” which the US supports militarily (Ahmado). By supporting opposing sides, the US and Russia have been fighting a proxy war in Syria.
Monthly Archives: March 2019
Background of US-EU Relations Regarding Iran
Monthly Archives: February 2019
Russia has played the role of mediator between North and South Korea and has a “relatively equal relationship” with both countries (Economy). Other countries involved in North Korea, such as the United States, China, and Japan, align more closely with one country or the other. In its relations with both countries, Russia demonstrates that it does not want the US involved in these security issues, encouraging “inter-Korean diplomacy” to end the dispute. Russia demanded that South Korea reject the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system and urged North Korea to “refrain from provocative actions,” declaring North Korea’s nuclear system a “threat to security in North-east Asia” (Economy).
Monthly Archives: February 2019
By Guest Author, Emil Avdaliani, PhD - Professor of International Relations and History at Tbilisi State University
Monthly Archives: February 2019
Economic and Political Ties Between Russia and Venezuela
Monthly Archives: January 2019
The conflict in Ukraine is very important to American, NATO, and Russian security. Russia has been testing its limits by annexing Crimea in 2014 and then by participating in the Ukrainian conflict. With sanctions affecting the Russian economy, Russia is using different tools to circumnavigate the sanctions by using China. With Russian forces in Syria fighting extremists, and with Russian involvement in Ukraine, Russia is able to use these conflicts as leverage against the United States.
Monthly Archives: December 2018
On December 4, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced plans to exit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 60 days, citing Russian noncompliance. If Russia does not return “to full and verifiable compliance” by the deadline, the United States will start a six month formal withdrawal process (Borger). The treaty went into force in 1987 and bans United States and Russia from developing “ground-launched cruise missiles” with ranges between 310 and 3,400 miles (Ward). The United States posits that “for years,” Russia “developed and deployed a ground launched cruise missile system, the SSC-8, also known as the 9M729” (Erlanger and Harris). NATO allies unanimously agreed with this stance.
Monthly Archives: December 2018
On November 25, Russia and Ukraine clashed in the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Though both nations use the strait, Russia blocked three Ukrainian ships’ access by placing a large cargo vessel under a Russian-controlled bridge. Russian border control ships fired on the Ukrainian ships, injuring six sailors. Russia seized two Ukrainian ships, detained twenty-four sailors, and later jailed twelve of these sailors (“Russian Court Jails…”).
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump shook hands briefly at the centennial World War I commemoration in Paris on November 12, 2018. They had a short discussion about Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea (“Putin says had…”). Though the leaders planned a meeting, they ultimately postponed the meeting until the Buenos Aries G20 summit on the weekend of November 30 (Jackson). Trump said he wants to discuss Russian collaboration in Syria and denuclearizing North Korea. Putin wants to discuss the recent U.S. pull out from 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and “the future of the 2011 New START arms-reduction agreement” (Jackson, “Putin: Arms control…”).
Monthly Archives: November 2018
On October 28, 2018, the Republic of Georgia held the first round of its final presidential election with a direct vote before transitioning to a parliamentary system. The election turned into a run-off between Salome Zurabishvili, ruling Georgian Dream party candidate, and Grigol Vashadze, candidate of former Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili’s party United National movement, each garnering 38.6 percent and 37.7 percent of the vote (De Waal). French-born Zurabishvili served as Saakashvili’s foreign minister in 2004 before joining an opposing party. She has driven away voters by making comments intolerant of ethnic minorities. Most likely, opposition candidate Vashadze will win as he gathers votes from smaller parties dissenting the Georgian Dream party. These dissent votes suggest “opposition consolidation for the 2020 parliamentary elections” will reshape the future political landscape (“Presidentials: Expert Assessments in Tbilisi”).
Monthly Archives: November 2018
In December 1987, U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev signed the U.S.-Russian Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The treaty “prohibited the United States and the Soviet Union from possessing, testing and deploying ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles of ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers” and required both countries to destroy a specified number of nuclear missiles (Cameron). In July 2014, U.S. State Department reported Russia violated the treaty. In February 2017, the United States accused Russia of deploying a nuclear system, a further treaty violation, and attempted to coerce Russia into compliance with sanctions.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
On October 20, 2018, Macedonia (the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia or FYROM) moved a step closer to joining NATO after two-thirds of its parliament approved a name change for the country–from Republic of Macedonia to North Macedonia. Macedonia is moving to change its name to North Macedonia to resolve a 27 year dispute with Greece. In September, over 90% of voters approved the name change, but boycott efforts led to less than a 50% voter turnout, passing the issue to Macedonia’s parliament. Despite parliament’s approval, the name change is still subject to future votes and Greece’s ratification.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
The United States has implemented two major policies to aid Ukraine’s defense against Russian invasion: sanctions and military support. In September 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to “ensure the full implementation” of U.S. sanctions against Russia (“Trump strengthens sanctions…”). Since 2014, the United States has used sanctions to combat Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. The idea behind sanctions is that the measures will weaken Russia’s ability to fund its Ukraine military effort, and this weakness will eventually force Russia to withdraw from the conflict. For military support, in September 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump approved $250 million to support Ukraine in military exercises, the provision of military equipment, lethal weapons and logistics support… the replacement of previously provided weapons or military goods… [and] reconnaissance support of Ukraine’s armed security forces” (“Trump signs Pentagon’s…”).
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko named former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili governor of Odessa in May 2015. In addition to governorship, Poroshenko bestowed honorary Ukrainian citizenship on Saakashvili, who lost his Georgian citizenship after being driven out of the country in a political conflict (“Ukraine names ex-Georgian…”). Saakashvili, who was offered the post due to his success lowering corruption in Georgia during his 2004 to 2013 presidency, resigned just a year later, in 2016. He cited Poroshenko’s corruption, saying that Poroshenko protected corrupt Ukrainians. In July 2017, Poroshenko stripped Saakashvili of his Ukrainian citizenship and arrested him. Saakashvili responded by barging through Ukraine’s Polish border with a crowd of supporters in September 2017. Police chased him onto a rooftop in December 2017. In February 2018, police arrested Saakashvili in a restaurant and deported him to Poland, a move which he called a kidnapping (“What’s behind Mikheil…”).
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine has struggled economically and politically (“Ukraine”). Ukraine is battling internal and external political struggles with Russian takeover of its east regions, which began in 2013. On November 24, 2013, in response to the Ukrainian government’s decision to reject a European Union (EU) trade agreement and move closer to Russia, around 100,000 protesters gathered in Ukraine’s capital, Kiev (“Ukraine crisis: Timeline”). These protests turned violent.
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Russia is pursuing a hybrid warfare strategy, which is defined as unconventional use of force (Van Puyvelde 2015). Using this strategy, Russia lays groundwork to continue expansion by spreading misinformation. Though Russia’s takeover of Crimea prevents Ukraine from joining NATO, as it has resulted in a territorial dispute, NATO should prioritize preventing other Russian expansion first. NATO lacks substantive policies to mitigate the effects of Russian propaganda. NATO must develop a strategy to combat Russian hybrid warfare with the following objectives:
Monthly Archives: September 2018
In November 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum on whether the UK should withdraw from the European Union. By a narrow margin of 51.9% to 48.1% votes in favor of leaving the EU, the UK began its split[1] A year later on March 29, 2017, the UK invoked Clause 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, officially starting the two-year process of formal withdrawal from the European Union. The whole process has been tumultuous and the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU is unclear. It is interesting to note that the “Remain” and “Leave” votes were split among geographic lines, with London and Scotland voting to stay and the more rural areas of England voting to leave.[2]
Monthly Archives: September 2018
Russia is turning towards a hybrid warfare strategy, which is unconventional use of force (Van Puyvelde 2015). Using this strategy, Russia regularly interferes with other countries’ politics to achieve favorable political outcomes. On September 30, 2018, Macedonia (FYROM) will hold a referendum, which, if voters pass it, will bring the country a step closer to joining the European Union (EU). On September 17, 2018, US Defense Secretary James Mattis warned that Russia was funding referendum opposition groups (“Mattis Warns Against…” 2018). Further, Moscow’s ambassador to Skopje, Macedonia’s capital, threatened that Russia would make Macedonia a “legitimate target” if NATO and Russia came into conflict (“Shcherbak: In case…” 2018). This political interference is consistent with Russia’s past strategy of preventing countries from joining the EU, such as it did with the frozen South Ossetian conflict in Georgia (hyperlink yellow highlighted portion to: http://praemon.org/russian-hybrid-warfare/ .)
Monthly Archives: September 2018
On March 17, 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea. During the Russian invasion, local residents noted the presence of troops wearing unmarked green uniforms. These troops’ unclear origins and uniform color earned them the moniker “little green men.” Eventually their weapons revealed their Russian origins, which Putin confirmed in April 2014 (Pifer 2014). Russia supported a fraudulent election in Crimea to annex the territory (Adesnik 2014).
Monthly Archives: September 2018
To understand Brexit and why the United Kingdom’s pending split from the European Union (EU) is causing such a stir, we look to the origins of the EU and their relationship with the UK. After almost half a century of continental war and deep economic depression in the 20th century, Europe desperately needed to rebuild economically. Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Belgium, known as the “Original Six”, signed the 1957 Rome Treaty to create the European Economic Community (EEC), allowing for steel and industrial materials to flow tariff-free between those countries. Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom joined in 1973 with nineteen other European nations joining later, Croatia being the latest to join in 2013 (EUROPA 2018). The EEC morphed into the European Communities, a customs union, in 1965 after the addition of new member countries (Kesselman 2018). This international union was brought about for two main reasons: for economic cohesion and to avoid a continental war as they had just experienced in the World Wars.
Monthly Archives: March 2016
Russia’s propaganda war on Germany and the West
Monthly Archives: June 2014
Mr. Putin would casually deny it, but Russia has fashioned the ongoing civil conflict in Eastern Ukraine in a manner that suits the Kremlin’s goals. The opening actions of the rebellion were pulled off without too many snags and managed to seize significant political and economic sites throughout the region, ranging from police stations to major railroad junctions. A growing amount of evidence suggests that these seemingly homegrown insurrections were originally led and coordinated by Russian operatives disguised as locals. Videos and eyewitness accounts show large convoys of vehicles packed with armed, uniformed men (many belonging to the Vostok Battalion, of Chechen War notoriety) streaming into Ukraine from over the Russian border. While this isn’t exactly hard evidence of the Kremlin’s direct involvement, it does speak volumes about what entities are fueling the current strife. Despite these occurrences, Putin does not seem interested in invading and annexing the eastern provinces of Ukraine in the same way that he did Crimea. This article discusses why Moscow does not want to absorb Eastern Ukraine, as well as what Russia’s true intensions are.
Monthly Archives: October 2013
America’s cyber security situation is in disarray. Ironically, the most technologically advanced country in the world is struggling mightily to protect itself and its interests in the digital domain. Recent events show that the pervasiveness and complexity of cyber threats are growing. At the same time, American cyber security efforts have been severely restricted by domestic and foreign political pressures. These pressures have left the United States more vulnerable to cyber attacks. If these trends continue, America will face increasingly serious threats from state actors and even more serious threats from non-state actors like terrorists.