Middle East
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Water Scarcity and Political Instability
An intelligence report released last week discussed a security threat that presents a frightening picture of the world, one in which clean, usable water is increasingly scarce. Water scarcity is in large part a result of increasing demand due to world population growth. U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton said in a speech given at the World Bank that “by 2025, we believe that it could be as much as two-thirds of the world’s population, including in more areas within developed countries where people will be living under water stress.” She continued to explain that “water security for us is a matter of economic security, human security, and national security, because we see potential for increasing unrest, conflicts, and instability over water.”
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Recent Trends in Radicalization
The attack in France this past week at the hands of the terrorist Mohammed Merah is reawakening Europe to the realities of radicalization. This event should not be viewed as the beginning of a complex new terror campaign domestically but should be seen as an infrequent reality of war with terror groups. The majority of attempted domestic attacks have been unsuccessful for a number of reasons, and most people who are successfully recruited end up going to conflict areas in order to train and act out their new sense of ideology rather than stay in their country. A quick overview of some aspects of the radicalization process will reveal that there is no trend towards coordinated attacks or rampant radicalization in the West.
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Against Reductionism
Recently there has been a deluge of calls for action to topple the Al-Assad regime in Syria in order to stop its bloody crackdown against the opposition movement. Many ideas have been thrown out into the open, the most prominent of which center around an air campaign, using a harsh set of sanctions against the regime, or arming the opposition with weapons capable of leveling the playing field. The loudest champions of these ideas by and large are generalizing the matter. Reducing the situation into black and white, election-friendly terms glosses over many of the grim realities in Syria. Looking at the main ideas listed above, we see that they are either unfeasible or the risks involved make them not only undesirable but also counterproductive.
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Israel's Next Step
Next Monday the Prime Minister of Israel will arrive in Washington, D.C. for an important security meeting with the President of the United States, Barack Obama. The focus of the meeting will be the ever-rising threat of a nuclear Iran. According to Israeli newspapers, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will request that the U.S. deliver an explicit military threat to Iran following the meeting. On the other hand, White House reports say that the President will likely want more time for the current sanctions and diplomatic actions to take effect.
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The Iran-Al Qaeda Connection
This past week has seen Al-Qaeda rise after a period of weakening and transition. After losing a number of its leadership, most notably Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, it was thought that the organization would be further crippled until it could no longer operate effectively. However its recent actions in Iraq, Somalia, and possibly even Syria demonstrate that Al-Qaeda is transitioning itself to regain a foothold in the Middle East. At the same time, Iran has been penalized by the U.S. Treasury for its support of Al-Qaeda. Furthermore, a district court in 2011 found Iran guilty of being linked to the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania by Al-Qaeda. Although it has long been known that Iran is the largest state-backer of terrorism, this link to Al-Qaeda is especially important to understand the Iranian regime’s attempt to gain dominance in the Middle East.
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Buying Time
Recently the European Union has been building up to the implementation of “crippling” new sanctions against the government of Iran. These new sanctions were finally revealed on January 23 and their primary focus is on limiting Iran’s oil export capability. Despite the strong rhetoric, these sanctions will not truly be effective in the short-term as they bar only new oil contracts with Iran while honoring current contracts until 1 July. Why are we seeing this apparent weakening of the economic hammer against Iran? Why not simply crush Iran into submission and force them into immediate negotiations? The basic answer is that the West is not capable of dealing effectively with Iran right now and needs more time to prepare.
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Is the US Really Done in the Middle East?
This past week marked a monumental step for the United States’ presence in the Middle East. From an airport in Baghdad, the closing ceremonies of the U.S. war in Iraq were held. There was no celebration, just a simple ceremony and then it was over. Just a few hundred miles away, however, a new chapter opened. A top secret U.S. drone, called the RQ-170, was captured nearly 140 miles into Iran. Iranian officials were not pleased about the incident and have demanded an apology from President Obama before they are willing to return the highly valuable piece of military equipment. With troops finally exiting Iraq, but tensions rising in Iran, the question must be asked: Is the United States really done in the Middle East? And if not, what does the future hold?
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Noro’s Response to The US and Pakistan: Keeping Friends Close and Enemies… Out
A good article, but moving forward, where does that leave us? It is well known that Pakistan has developed nuclear weapons, what is unknown is how many they have. After we disown them, is there any advantage other than not having to hear them whine? Unless we invade Pakistan like we did Afghanistan, no positive change will happen. Here is my case:
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The US and Pakistan: Keeping Friends Close and Enemies… Out
On November 26, 2011 the Pakistani government was found red with anger after a series of strikes from a NATO aircraft killed at least 25 soldiers at the northwestern border with Afghanistan. The supreme army commander of Pakistan called the attacks unprovoked, but the Afghan security officers said that they were involved in a nighttime raid of a supposed Taliban hideout when they came under fire and responded.
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Monthly Archives: July 2019
Turkey: S-400 Over the F-35
In early June, Washington issued an ultimatum to Turkey urging the country to reconsider its decision to buy the Russian S-400 air defense system. The Turkish Ministry of Defense acknowledged the ultimatum on June 8, two days after it was reported in the media (Kurt 2019). At that time, Turkey was informed that if the deal to purchase the S-400 from Russia continued, all Turkish personnel training with the American F-35 fighter planes would be required to cease training and leave American soil by July 31 (Marcus 2019). By June 6, Washington had already announced that it would stop accepting new Turkish pilots into the program for training on the F-35 (Stewart 2019).
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Monthly Archives: July 2019
Arms Sales in the Yemeni Conflict: Who's (Legally of Illegally) Selling Guns?
The Saudi-led coalition purchases most of its arms from the United States and United Kingdom, while weaponry for the Houthi rebels is smuggled almost entirely from Iran.
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Monthly Archives: June 2019
Why the United States Must Remain Involved in Yemen
It can be difficult to determine what the United States has to gain from involving itself in the Yemeni Civil War. The humanitarian crisis and the unsuccessful Saudi and Emirati attempts to defeat the Houthis have convinced some analysts that further American engagement in the war is unnecessary and even counterproductive. What, then, might Yemen have to do with the interests of the United States? There are two primary interests: limiting the Iranian threat and solving the country’s humanitarian crisis.
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Monthly Archives: June 2019
Iranian Influence in Yemen: Covert and Overt Backing of Houthi Rebels
Though it continually denies any substantial involvement in the Yemeni Civil War, Iran’s support for Houthi rebels has been visible to the international community since the Arab Spring.
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Monthly Archives: June 2019
The Rise, Fall, and Future of ISIS
The United States faces an enduring and potent threat from the Islamic State (ISIS hereafter) terrorist group. Any decrease in efforts to dismantle both the group and its ideology worldwide is likely to grant the group the minimal operational space and security it needs to reorganize, rearm, recruit, and attack.
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Monthly Archives: June 2019
Mercenaries in the Saudi-led Coalition
The Yemeni Civil War, which started as a conflict between President Abdrabbuh Munsar Hadi’s government and Houthi revolutionaries, has become a magnet for external actors from around the world. A Saudi-led coalition consisting of the United States, France, and other countries supports Hadi’s government, while Iran backs the Houthi rebels. Nations representing both sides have poured billions of dollars of resources and thousands of men and women into the conflict, but recent findings have begun to reveal that there is another type of actor which is extraordinarily prominent: foreign mercenaries (Isenberg 2018).
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Monthly Archives: May 2019
Kazakhstan's Pseudo Democracy
In a surprise move on March 19, Nursultan Nazarbayev stepped down as Kazakhstan’s president, a position he held for nearly 19 years. He declared as interim president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, “a longtime diplomat who was speaker of the upper house of parliament, the Senate” (“Kazakh Ruling Party…”). Nazarbayev’s resignation left a hole in Kazakhstan’s political structure which its people have never had the opportunity to fill, as he the only leader Kazakhstan has known as an independent country (“Kazakh Ruling Party”).
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Monthly Archives: May 2019
American Interests in Yemen
American interests in Yemen are currently centered around limiting Iranian influence, ensuring safe oil transit, and maintaining the security of Saudi Arabia. Secondary interests include counterterrorism, human rights, and overall stability in the Middle East. A brief look at the history of US-Yemeni relations will show how these interests have evolved.
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Monthly Archives: May 2019
Pakistan's Government: A Brief Profile
Government of Pakistan: Information Report
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