Middle East
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Monthly Archives: November 2019
“Disputed Borders and Militant Operations: The Fight on the Pakistan-Afghanistan Border”
Late October 2019 saw border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan that led to the deaths of three Afghan civilians. These clashes began after Afghan forces and local militias stopped the Pakistani military from establishing a military installation along the border in eastern Kunar province. Afghan sources claimed that Pakistani forces fired mortars and rockets at villages in the border district of Nari during these clashes.
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Monthly Archives: October 2019
The International Response to the Attack on Saudi Arabia
Last month, cruise missiles targeted and damaged oil facilities in Saudi Arabia owned by Saudi Aramco. The Houthis in Yemen immediately claimed responsibility for the attack and the United States and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran soon afterwards, insisting the missiles were launched from southern Iran.[1] The reactions of other countries, particularly those remaining in the JCPOA, have proven to be just as important.
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Monthly Archives: October 2019
How Jordan Fits Into American Foreign Policy
The Kingdom of Jordan, a Middle Eastern country smaller than many American states, has found itself in an increasingly unpredictable environment since 2003. Conflicts in Israel/Palestine, Syria, and Iraq surround it, and its economy is straining with 18% unemployment, high taxes, and corruption.[1]
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Monthly Archives: September 2019
Saudi Nuclear Ambitions
Over the past two and a half years of the Trump administration, American energy companies have quietly made deals with Saudi Arabian energy officials to begin trading information on nuclear energy.[1] The United States and Saudi Arabia see nuclear development as a very symbiotic and lucrative deal, which could bring the US several billions of dollars in trade revenue every year. However, several politicians and energy officials fear that a nuclear arms race will develop between Iran and SA.[2] SA hopes to both satisfy its increasing power needs and protect itself.[3] Despite some hesitations, the US has moved forward with authorizations as the Kingdom hopes to build two new plants in the coming years.
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Monthly Archives: August 2019
U.S.-Iran Relations
US-Iran relations have grown increasingly troubled since the election of President Trump. Given the recent rhetoric from the current administration, some worry about the possibility of conventional armed conflict between the two states. Military maneuvers on both sides have postured the two nations for conflict despite some congressional efforts to prevent war. In June, an unmanned US drone was shot down in what Iran claimed was its airspace. President Trump accused Iran of “warmongering”[1] while Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that the drone had “violated Iranian airspace.”[2] In July, Iranian officials detained a British tanker in response to Britain’s detainment of an oil tanker in Gibraltar.[3]
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Monthly Archives: August 2019
U.S. Options on Iran
This summer has been notably characterized by a heating up of tensions between the US and its allies, and Iran. President Trump’s hardline, “maximum pressure” approach against Tehran, which dates back to his withdrawal from the JCPOA in the spring of 2018, has been firm and constant. The US has imposed strict economic sanctions, sent 2,500 troops to the region, an aircraft carrier, and conducted cyber attacks, while Iran has shot down a US drone and allegedly attacked ships in the region.[1] Iran’s acts of aggression and recent breaches of sections of the JCPOA are primarily meant to coerce the US into lifting the series of economic sanctions it has enacted since its withdrawal from the accord.
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Monthly Archives: May 2019
The Organization and History of Pakistan's Military
The Pakistan Armed Forces were created from the British Indian Army in 1947 (Heathcote 1995, 253). They are comprised of the Army, Navy, and Airforce and are led by Zubair Mahmood Hayat, who currently serves as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (Shaikh 2016; Blood 1996, 287-288). This committee includes the Chief of Army Staff, Chief of Naval Staff, and Chief of Air Staff, and is the highest administrative body in Pakistan’s military (Blood 1996, 288). Also relevant is the Inter-Services Intelligence, the agency responsible for covert operations abroad (Blood 1996, 288). The minimum age for voluntary military service is sixteen, although eighteen is the minimum age for deployment (Central Intelligence Agency, 2019). Women can serve in all three branches (Central Intelligence Agency, 2019).
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Monthly Archives: November 2018
The Kaleidoscope of Lebanese Politics
Lebanese politics are currently centered on forming a new government that can help Lebanon address its pressing economic issues (Perry 2018; Al-Jazeera 2018). However, the process is strongly hindered by spats on the role of Hezbollah and its affiliates in the new unity government (Macaron 2018; Anbar 2018; Dakroub 2018).
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Syrian Violence Spreads to Lebanon and Iraq
The Syrian civil war has escalated significantly in recent days. As the Syrian regime forces have begun a campaign to take back the strategic city of Qusayr, Sunni jihadists, among them the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda in Iraq, have begun operations against Shi’ites in Lebanon and Iraq. These terrorist activities could spark protracted civil wars in both Lebanon and Iraq along sectarian lines.
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Cybersecurity: Closing the Back Door to America's Enemies
On October 25, 2012, The New York Times published an eye-opening report on an extensive, billion-dollar business empire constructed by relatives of China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao. Three months later, the Times revealed it had been undergoing intense cyber attacks even before the report was publicly released. Cooperating with AT&T, the FBI, and a leading cybersecurity firm, the Times pinned the digital break-ins on Chinese hackers, adding that the Chinese military was likely involved.
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Developments in the Syrian Crisis: The Rise of al-Qaeda and Retreat of the Regime
The situation in Syria has been deteriorating rapidly in the past few weeks. New developments are of special concern for U.S. national security as we are getting a new view of Syria’s geopolitical reality. These developments include the rise in preeminence of al-Qaeda and its affiliates among the rebellion, concerns surrounding chemical weapons security, and recent regime activities that may indicate their short to mid-term goals.
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Hijacking a Rebellion: New Trends in al-Qaeda Tactics
Events in the Middle East and North Africa in recent months indicate a major shift in strategy by al-Qaeda and its affiliates. While many officials mistake this shift as a sign of al-Qaeda’s looming defeat, it actually displays a rapidly growing danger to U.S. national security. Al-Qaeda’s new ability to capitalize on instability amid preexisting rebellions is quite disturbing, and is occurring in several locations. The place of most significance for al-Qaeda is Syria, but a look at their ongoing late-phase operation in Mali can offer some insights into future developments in Syria.
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The Dangers of an Anxious Iranian Government Perceiving a ‘Psychological War’
On Tuesday, President Ahmadinejad accused the United States and “internal enemies” of waging a “psychological war” against Iran in an attempt to stop Iranians from ditching the weakening rial for U.S. dollars. This “war” refers to the significant problems Iran faces, including the U.S.-led economic sanctions, a threatened Israeli military strike, and now internal protests. While this perceived psychological war against Iran has yet to turn into a physical conflict, the United States and Israel must be aware that increasing pressure may cause the Iranian military and government to act erratically, which may lead to Iranian military action.
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Is Deterrence a Viable Option for a Nuclear Iran?
Iran’s nuclear program has again entered the spotlight of U.S. foreign policy debates in a election cycle in which foreign policy has taken the backseat. The current debates often result in three scenarios: 1) Iran gives up its nuclear program, 2) Israel (with or without U.S. assistance) makes a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, postponing Iran’s progress, or 3) The parties involved wait until Iran develops nuclear weapons and thus assure a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel. Essentially, these scenarios ultimately result in either Iran ending its nuclear program or an unavoidable war between Israel (and therefore the U.S.) and Iran. These scenarios leave no room for the possibility of a nuclear Iran without war.
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A South Asian Power Play
Pakistan has been gambling for a long time with its use of militants as a strategic edge over India. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) created and utilized different groups that we generally label as “Taliban” in order to counter Indian power in the region. This has been a several decade-long endeavor but is now showing signs of failure as India is increasing its influence in Afghanistan. In this context, Indian-Pakistani relations will likely prove to be an even more critical national security issue as we scale back military efforts in the region.
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A new glimpse into al-Qaeda
To coincide with the anniversary of the raid that killed Osama bin laden, the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point released 17 de-classified documents obtained in bin Laden’s Abbattobad compound. These 17 documents are a small fraction of the thousands of documents recovered from the raid. Despite their small number, these documents add color to our understanding of al-Qaeda’s leadership; namely, the relationship that al-Qaeda leaders maintained with its affiliates was the subject of internal debate and scrutiny. The insights gained from these prior inner workings may offer a glimpse into understanding the current dynamics of al-Qaeda methodology
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