Africa

On December 13-15, 2022, the White House hosted forty-nine leaders from across the African continent to the second U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit. This historic event has only happened once before, in 2014 with former President Barack Obama. The purpose of the summit was several fold: to build trust with the many countries of the African continent, advance the interests of the African Union, to foster new economic activities, and more. This summit is seen as an important step in building better relationships with “a new, more prosperous Africa”, as President Obama said during the first summit. This year’s summit is especially important as it comes amid economic hardship across the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and a debt crisis for many African countries.

The other day one of my friends looked over my shoulder and saw the name “Burkina Faso.” She politely asked me what this “Burkina Faso” was. For those who find themselves in a similar situation: stay tuned. Burkina Faso is a landlocked country in West Africa near Mali, Niger, Togo, Ghana, and Ivory Coast. It is categorized as a Least Developed Country (LDC), and in recent years, this small country has affected the seething in West Africa.

Libya’s parliamentary committee has postponed the long-awaited Libyan presidential elections. The elections were intended to take place on December 24th, 2021, but were postponed two days prior. A new election date has yet to be set. Entities both within and outside of Libya disagree about Libya’s priorities as it seeks to establish a stable democracy in the wake of two civil wars. This poses important implications for the United States as it tries to encourage democracy in Libya, establish a strategic and friendly partnership with oil-rich Libya, and predict who will come to power once elections are held.

This November will mark the first anniversary of the Tigray and Ethiopian conflict, a conflict that questions the power of leaders, the value of stability, and the role of the international community in such affairs.

On September 5th military leader Doumbouya blocked off roads and took the capital by force. He removed President Conde as President. U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price opposed the rise to power of Doumbouya and the military. Additionally, the UN states call for the release of the president from the custody emplaced by Doumbouya.

The former president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, died at 95 on September 6, 2019 in Singapore, after receiving medical treatment there.[1] Mugabe began his political career as Prime Minister in 1980; however, when Zimbabwe’s parliament amended the constitution in 1987, Mugabe was declared the executive President. This new position allowed Mugabe to dissolve parliament, declare martial law, and run for an unlimited number of terms.[2] During his time as President, Mugabe was a controversial figure. His early work focused on liberating Zimbabwe from British colonialism, imperialism, and white minority rule. He was praised as a revolutionary in the struggle for African freedom from Western powers. Two years after he assumed the presidency, the economy sustained limited growth and Mugabe implemented new clinics and schools for the disenfranchised black population.[3] However, resentment toward him and his administration grew as he began to seize land from the white population without compensation, and he refused to amend the one-party constitution. Mugabe’s government officials awarded themselves pay raises while the country’s inflation continued to soar.[4] In 2008, Mugabe lost the presidential election to the leader of the opposition party, Morgan Tsvangirai; however, Mugabe refused to cede power and demanded a re-election. In the interim, Mugabe had the opposition supporters attacked and killed, until Tsvangirai withdrew from the race. This violent repression of his political opponents led many critics to labelling him a dictator.[5]

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar began his military career by taking part in the 1969 coup that overthrew King Idris and established Muammar Qaddafi as the head of the Libyan state. Shortly thereafter, Haftar became Qaddafi’s chief of staff of the armed forces and was given control over Libya’s conflict with Chad.[1] Although loyal to Qaddafi, when Haftar and his men were captured as prisoners of war in Chad in 1987, Qaddafi repudiated him and demanded that Haftar’s soldiers be returned to Libya; however, the United States moved them to Zaire. Qaddafi’s disavowal angered Haftar and in 1988 he joined the C.I.A.-supported National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL) while in Chad.[2] When the NFSL was unable to overthrow Qaddafi, the United States flew Haftar and his men to Virginia, where Haftar lived for the next 20 years while gaining U.S. citizenship.[3]

A United Nations Security Council communication released in July warned that although the incidence rate of Islamic-motivated terrorism has declined in the last months, the terror threat is still high. The Security Council noted that while ISIL no longer has any geographic holdings, its presence in Iraq and surrounding states combined with its ideology and ability to undermine fragile West African political structures still pose threats. Furthermore, the progress made by Al-Qaida and its allies, although financially less formidable than ISIL, creates similar cause for concern.

Since the formation of the Chinese Communist party, the world has watched China evolve into the world power it is today. While it is clearly evident that China is continually increasing its soft power around the world, it is less evident that China is in the midst of serious economic woes. Many of China’s efforts to expand its soft power focus on utilizing its comparative economic might, others, however, focus on expanding China’s culture. Through its acclaimed Confucian Institutes, China is planting footholds throughout Africa. These footholds increase awareness and notoriety for China throughout the entire continent. In addition, China is pouring capital into Africa, Iceland, and the United States. These foreign investments indicate a weakening homeland where Chinese billionaires do not want to store their capital. China is playing a deceiving game of economic protectionism masked by a rise in soft power. Given China’s current track, competing world powers need not fear China’s total economic dominance.

Events in the Middle East and North Africa in recent months indicate a major shift in strategy by al-Qaeda and its affiliates. While many officials mistake this shift as a sign of al-Qaeda’s looming defeat, it actually displays a rapidly growing danger to U.S. national security. Al-Qaeda’s new ability to capitalize on instability amid preexisting rebellions is quite disturbing, and is occurring in several locations. The place of most significance for al-Qaeda is Syria, but a look at their ongoing late-phase operation in Mali can offer some insights into future developments in Syria.

To coincide with the anniversary of the raid that killed Osama bin laden, the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point released 17 de-classified documents obtained in bin Laden’s Abbattobad compound. These 17 documents are a small fraction of the thousands of documents recovered from the raid. Despite their small number, these documents add color to our understanding of al-Qaeda’s leadership; namely, the relationship that al-Qaeda leaders maintained with its affiliates was the subject of internal debate and scrutiny. The insights gained from these prior inner workings may offer a glimpse into understanding the current dynamics of al-Qaeda methodology

In recent weeks, Mali, a democratic West African nation, experienced two events that threaten the stability of the country: a military coup and a rebellion that took over a significant portion of the country. Although this may not seem like such an abnormal event, given the seeming regularity of coups in Africa, it is in fact a sign of the changing nature of the war with al-Qaeda and its growing umbrella of affiliated groups. The terrorist organization may be weaker than it was a decade ago, but it is less centralized and is spreading into an increasing number of ungoverned areas. The problems in Mali represent the long term issues we may be facing in regards to al-Qaeda.

An intelligence report released last week discussed a security threat that presents a frightening picture of the world, one in which clean, usable water is increasingly scarce. Water scarcity is in large part a result of increasing demand due to world population growth. U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton said in a speech given at the World Bank that “by 2025, we believe that it could be as much as two-thirds of the world’s population, including in more areas within developed countries where people will be living under water stress.” She continued to explain that “water security for us is a matter of economic security, human security, and national security, because we see potential for increasing unrest, conflicts, and instability over water.”

The attack in France this past week at the hands of the terrorist Mohammed Merah is reawakening Europe to the realities of radicalization. This event should not be viewed as the beginning of a complex new terror campaign domestically but should be seen as an infrequent reality of war with terror groups. The majority of attempted domestic attacks have been unsuccessful for a number of reasons, and most people who are successfully recruited end up going to conflict areas in order to train and act out their new sense of ideology rather than stay in their country. A quick overview of some aspects of the radicalization process will reveal that there is no trend towards coordinated attacks or rampant radicalization in the West.

This past week has seen Al-Qaeda rise after a period of weakening and transition. After losing a number of its leadership, most notably Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, it was thought that the organization would be further crippled until it could no longer operate effectively. However its recent actions in Iraq, Somalia, and possibly even Syria demonstrate that Al-Qaeda is transitioning itself to regain a foothold in the Middle East. At the same time, Iran has been penalized by the U.S. Treasury for its support of Al-Qaeda. Furthermore, a district court in 2011 found Iran guilty of being linked to the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania by Al-Qaeda. Although it has long been known that Iran is the largest state-backer of terrorism, this link to Al-Qaeda is especially important to understand the Iranian regime’s attempt to gain dominance in the Middle East.

The constant tumult in Sudan is keeping the international community on its toes. After months of protesting and violence, the military overthrew President Omar al-Bashir in April of this year and established a transitional military council. The TMC declared there would be a two-year transitional period after which the state would hold elections. Pro-democracy protests continued as demonstrators called for a civilian-led transitional body, citing that the TMC was no better than the previous regime they had fought to remove. On June 3, the TMC massacred hundreds of protestors and instituted an internet black out worse than any during al-Bashir’s rule. After another mass protest on June 30, the TMC and the civilian opposition began negotiating with the help of envoys from Ethiopia and the African Union. These negotiations led to an agreement on a joint sovereign council comprised of eleven members: five military, five civilian, and an unknown eleventh member. This council would govern for three years while organizing elections. The military will rule for the first 21 months, and the civilian government will assume control for the next 18 months. On Thursday, Sudan was rocked by another military coup, an attempt that was shortly foiled by security forces. Skeptics say the coup was fabricated by the military in order to pressure the civilian opposition group into signing the deal. This constant political flux works in the military’s favor, leaving civilians at a disadvantage at the negotiating table.

Since December, the streets of Sudan have been filled with tens of thousands of peaceful protestors (Abdulbari). These demonstrations began over cuts to bread and fuel subsidies, but quickly turned to calls for the overthrow of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, whose 30-year rule has been marked by a deteriorating economy, rapidly increasing inflation, and widespread corruption (“Sudan’s inflation…”). In January, security forces in Khartoum began firing tear gas, stun grenades, and live ammunition at protestors gathered at sit-ins in an attempt to quell protests (Lewis). Over 1,000 have been detained since the beginning of the demonstrations (“Sudan’s Omar…”).