War

Although first becoming active years before Russia’s “special military operation”, Wagner Group, the private military contractor and parastatal arm of the Russian military has become increasingly visible since the invasion of Ukraine. The PMC is a convenient asset for the Kremlin, however recent critical comments made by Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin about top Russian military leadership indicate developing growing pains in the relationship between the Russian government and Wagner Group.

In recent weeks, the war in Ukraine has seen major successes and failures on both sides. Advances have been made for the Ukrainian troops but Russia has found more pressure points to push, creating more economic unrest for the West. This conflict, only expected to last a few weeks, has turned into more than six months of intense battles and humanitarian disasters. Although physically it only affects portions of Ukraine’s population, its indirect consequences have extended much farther than eastern Europe. Russia has positioned itself directly against the entirety of the EU and the UN. These western powers have been heavily involved from the start, several rounds of sanctions have already been put into effect. However, their dogmatic approach to dealing with Russia is about to be tested in the coming winter. The U.S. has given lots of support in this conflict in the form of military aid and money, almost three billion dollars since the beginning of the Biden administration, but the consequences have been felt in the economy. A potential indicator for U.S. markets in the coming season may be Russia’s efforts to limit its oil and gas exports and increase energy costs for Ukraine. These next few months will prove to be critical in the outcome of the war and Russia’s future as a European nation.

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, the conflict has only escalated with thousands of lives being lost to the violence. The shock of this conflict has reverberated around the world, with many countries still unsure of the best course of action to take. One thing is for certain: as the war continues, the use of nuclear weaponry becomes a bigger possibility. As one of the only superpowers in the world, the United States is faced with their own security concerns about the continued conflict in Ukraine.

The United States now faces an increasing strain on its reserve supply of armaments due to the war in Ukraine. Since the conflict began, the United States has sent over $17.5 billion USD in military aid. These packages have included everything from radar and stinger anti-aircraft rocket launchers to cold weather gear and body armor. As the spending for Ukraine increases, predictions indicate that reserves of certain weapons systems and munitions will soon be depleted to sub-optimal levels required for the United States to effectively respond to a direct conflict. Current supply levels remain adequate for certain armaments; however, this issue will be compounded by the slow adjustment of manufacturing to replenish weapon stocks.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dragged on far beyond the timeline projected by political scientists, but it may be drawing to a close. What that end might be is yet to be seen, but there are fewer and fewer ways out of this conflict as Russia commits more and more resources and troops to the ‘special military exercise’ that has resulted in at least 10,000 casualties and many more missing, as well as over 10% of the population of Ukraine currently displaced. With American troops part of the forward placement on the East of the NATO Alliance and nuclear threats renewed, Putin may soon force American intervention.

The Syrian civil war has escalated significantly in recent days. As the Syrian regime forces have begun a campaign to take back the strategic city of Qusayr, Sunni jihadists, among them the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda in Iraq, have begun operations against Shi’ites in Lebanon and Iraq. These terrorist activities could spark protracted civil wars in both Lebanon and Iraq along sectarian lines.