United States

Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader, has essentially threatened secession with his statements on October 8th that the Serb Republic will remove itself from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s armed forces, top judiciary body, and tax administration. Dodik has also said that the Serb Republic will recreate its army in the process. Dodik’s announcements violate the U.S.-led Dayton Accords, which ended the Bosnian War in 1995 and stipulated that the once warring groups would be one sovereign country.

In the aftermath of the 2020 global pandemic, inflation has swept across economies worldwide. While economists expected the consumer price index in the United States to rise 5.9% in the past year, it has instead risen 6.2%. This rapid rise in rates is creating a notable impact on food prices. High prices are affecting market sales and charity operations. Responses to the market inflation may either alleviate or aggravate long-term effects on the post-pandemic economy.

Various Latin American countries demonstrate a willingness to participate with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This willingness is concerning to the United States, as the BRI increases the ability of the Chinese government to project power onto the American continents. This article analyzes the options available to the United States and Western countries to counter the BRI in Latin America.

DECISION MEMORANDUM

At the present moment, Cuba does not represent any foreign policy focus for the Biden administration. Whether or not it should become a priority is unimportant; Cuba currently represents an opportunity for the United States to demonstrate to the rest of the world that it can harness soft power in situations where military force is impractical or unnecessary.

The intelligence community warns the coronavirus pandemic damages the world in political, economic, and health aspects. Instability is worsening, and world powers seek advantage from the pandemic instead of cooperation. After assuming a premature victory over the coronavirus and lifting restrictions earlier this year, India experienced a deadly second wave of the virus starting in mid-March. As of September 24th, India has had over 33,500,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, with nearly 450,000 coronavirus-related deaths. Although India has now overcome this second wave thanks to the greater availability of vaccines and aid, only 16% of the Indian population is fully vaccinated as of September 23rd. In addition, the coronavirus has exacerbated pre-existing economic and political issues that could pose a graver threat to the Indian economy and democratic stability than the pandemic itself if the state cannot recover soon.

The Taliban remains a threat to the stability and continual development of a democratic government in Afghanistan. A lack of an American military presence will likely encourage the Taliban to expand their power. Aggression against Afghans has increased dramatically since the start of this year. If the Taliban were to gain control, the country could become a renewed haven for terrorist groups and threats to the United States.

In 2020 and into early 2021, the military forces of the Republic of India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) clashed multiple times in hand-to-hand combat in northwest India along the nuclear-armed neighbors’ 3,500 kilometer-long disputed border—resulting in their deadliest skirmish in 45 years. Given the tension between these two global powers, the United States is seeking to strengthen defensive ties with the Republic of India to signal its commitment to defending the world’s largest democracy.

At the beginning of 2020, the United States watched the Kingdom of Thailand experience unprecedented calls for reform of the Thai monarchy. The turmoil in the country prompted the United States to determine how they would both support the human rights of the citizens while also maintaining interests with the current Thai government. Protests in Bangkok against the royal family, specifically King Vajiralongkorn, have been spearheaded by the upcoming generation of Thai young adults. The protesters consistently demand the dissolution of parliament, an end to the intimidation of the people, and a new constitution. In other words, the protesters of the monarchy in Thailand are pro-democracy. Despite the continuation of the protests, the demands seem to be falling on deaf ears. The monarchy has not directly acknowledged these demands from the protesters. Instead, they have sent the military to take back the streets with riot shields, rubber bullets, and water cannons. These protests are taking place mainly in Bangkok around the different college campuses and government monuments. The Royalists, for their part, have not been passively watching on the sidelines during these protests.

The killing of the Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was the latest event to escalate tensions in the Middle East between the US and Israel, and Iran. The head of the Iranian nuclear program was killed in his car in an ambush supposedly done by satellite-controlled machine guns near the Iranian capital, Tehran. The killing has naturally attracted widespread outcry from the international community. The European Union condemned it as a “criminal act” against human rights, and they and many other countries call for restraint.

Since its independence from the United Kingdom in 1965, other countries have known the Republic of Maldives mostly as a honeymoon destination for Bollywood actors. However, the archipelago is now seeing renewed attention for a more strategic purpose. The sea surrounding the islands is the Laccadive Sea, which connects Maldives, India, and Sri Lanka. The Laccadive Sea has stable waters throughout the whole year, which makes it ideal for a naval base, something the United States might try to establish in the coming years, given its activity in base-building in other parts of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Filipino policy has changed drastically in the last few years, with ramifications for Southeast Asian geopolitics. President Rodrigo Duterte has launched a campaign to break up “oligarchies” in the Philippines’ economy, stripped journalists critical of his policies of their licensing, and conceded to Chinese claims in the South China Sea. Duterte’s critics worry that if he isolates himself and the Philippines from the United States and traditional allies too much, China will replace them.

The coronavirus pandemic has infected over two and a half million people, with numbers quickly rising each day. Impacting the respiratory functions of the body, this virus ravages the elderly and those with underlying health conditions such as asthma and diabetes. Since its spread began in December of 2019, millions of people world-wide have quarantined, billions of dollars in business have been lost, and consumers have been directed or forced to stay home. In the U.S. alone, more than twenty-two million people have applied for unemployment, and there are estimates that the unemployment rate could hover around twenty percent for a few quarters. The true impact will remain unknown until the virus has completely run its course. With countries at their tipping point, the U.S. must consider the change of course the virus is taking and the new policies required to combat it.

For the past few decades, Iran and the United States have been locked in a political dance in which both states attempted to control the domestic, regional, and international politics of the Middle East. From the US using its allies to implement strong-arm tactics, like sanctions against Iran, to Iran inciting anti-American riots in Baghdad, to both states backing opposite sides in war-torn countries such as Syria and Yemen, the two countries have favored using other nations to further their interests instead of using direct force against each other. However, the recent assassination of the powerful Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and his entourage in Iraq by the US military has moved this decades-long conflict between the two states from a proxy war into a new stage of outright aggression.

DF-26’s Threat and Capabilities

Background

Last month, President Trump announced plans to relocate American troops from the Northern Syrian/Southern Turkish border. Since the withdrawal, Turkey has launched several ground attacks on the border of northern Syria, which is part of the area known internationally as Kurdistan. The attacks are part of Turkey’s “Operation Peace Spring”, a military assault designed to “prevent the creation of terror corridor across [the Turkish] southern border,”[1][2] according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. President Erdogan expressed his intention to “crush [the] heads”[3] of Kurdish militants in this attack. Many native Kurdish people on the border of Turkey and Syria are seeking refuge in nearby areas as the situation intensifies.

ANALYSIS