Ukraine

Recently, Xi Jinping, the leader of China, and Vladimir Putin, leader of Russia, met at the Kremlin in Russia to participate in talks of their strategic vision for the future. This visit comes amid the still ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and raises eyebrows for state leaders around the world watching closely as relationships between China and Russia grow tighter. The meeting was advertised as a way for the “self-described friends” to show their personal support for each other.

Although first becoming active years before Russia’s “special military operation”, Wagner Group, the private military contractor and parastatal arm of the Russian military has become increasingly visible since the invasion of Ukraine. The PMC is a convenient asset for the Kremlin, however recent critical comments made by Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin about top Russian military leadership indicate developing growing pains in the relationship between the Russian government and Wagner Group.

The effects of Putin’s use of strategic conservatism are already widespread. The consequences surmounted precedent as he won the support of Patriarch Kirill. When a specific religion is attached to a national identity, the leaders of the nation take on leadership of said religion. This has led figures such as Pope Francis to condemn the association by warning Kirill against being Putin’s, “altar boy”. However, as a leader of hundreds of thousands, such reprimands and sanctions against Kirill must be approached carefully. As it was during the Cold War in the fight against communism, America seems to have found itself in a battle against ideology.

The United States now faces an increasing strain on its reserve supply of armaments due to the war in Ukraine. Since the conflict began, the United States has sent over $17.5 billion USD in military aid. These packages have included everything from radar and stinger anti-aircraft rocket launchers to cold weather gear and body armor. As the spending for Ukraine increases, predictions indicate that reserves of certain weapons systems and munitions will soon be depleted to sub-optimal levels required for the United States to effectively respond to a direct conflict. Current supply levels remain adequate for certain armaments; however, this issue will be compounded by the slow adjustment of manufacturing to replenish weapon stocks.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dragged on far beyond the timeline projected by political scientists, but it may be drawing to a close. What that end might be is yet to be seen, but there are fewer and fewer ways out of this conflict as Russia commits more and more resources and troops to the ‘special military exercise’ that has resulted in at least 10,000 casualties and many more missing, as well as over 10% of the population of Ukraine currently displaced. With American troops part of the forward placement on the East of the NATO Alliance and nuclear threats renewed, Putin may soon force American intervention.

Since February, global attention has continued to concentrate on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its rippling impact, extending beyond its interference in the global supply chain or impulsion of refugees within Europe to the tensions in Eastern Asia between China (PRC) and Taiwan (ROC).

Every year since 1975, a world economic summit has been held to discuss and brainstorm the current challenges facing the world. It has evolved since then into what we know today as the G7. There are seven member nations who make up this council including the United States and the current Presiding nation of Germany. The 26th of this month will mark the beginning of a new summit meeting in the Bavarian Alps with the massive backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Although it does not wield the policy making power like the EU or the UN, the G7 will play a huge role in setting the tone for the remainder of the war. Ministers from other countries and representatives from the EU have been invited to take part in the summit as well. Since Russia began sending troops to the Ukrainian border, many emergency meetings have been convened in response to the Russian act of aggression on Ukraine. This will add to the buildup of this year’s G7 summit which will like showcase severe punishments and a doubling down of its strict behavior towards Russia.

Russia aims to resurrect its geopolitical dominance by amassing troops on the Ukrainian border. Conflict began in 2014 when street protests in Ukraine overthrew Russian-supported President Victor Yanukovych. In retaliation, Russia annexed Crimea sparking violence in eastern Ukraine. Since 2014 Russia has made substantial advances culminating with 175,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. Intelligence reports vary on the exact military capabilities of Russian forces, but unanimously agree that they are sufficient to overpower the Ukrainian military. Reports from intelligence sources indicate increased Russian propaganda in Ukraine, attempting to convince Ukrainians that Russia will benevolently liberate them from their western-controlled leaders. Intelligence officials urge Ukraine to strategically resist Russian aggression, abstaining from provocative actions that Russia could misinterpret for grounds of invasion.

In the wake of the 2014 Euromaidan uprisings in Ukraine, comedian and actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy created, produced, and starred in “Servant of the People”, a TV series about an unknown history teacher winning the presidential elections. The show is a satirical take on the corruption and inefficiency in Ukrainian politics and struck a chord with Ukrainians at a politically fraught moment in which the country found itself at a crossroads between Russia and the West. Zelenskiy’s character was portrayed as a virtuous public servant who railed against the corruption that had hampered the nation.

What began as the straightforward territorial claim and annexation of Crimea in 2014 has now become a protracted, multidimensional conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. While the two countries continue to exchange economic, political, and physical blows, Ukraine has moved its fight for permanent independence into the sphere of religion.

In what researchers at Oxford Internet Institute described as “the most globally advanced case of computational propaganda,” Ukraine was Europe’s most frequent target of disinformation campaigns in 2018 (Bohdanova). According to the EU vs Disinfo database, Ukraine had “461 references among a total of 1,000 disinformation cases reported in 2018” (“Ukraine Under Information Fire”). Some of these cases included Kremlin-based false reports that Ukrainian authorities planned to construct a 120 kilometer waterway that would isolate Crimea from Ukraine. Another story surfaced that US secret services and the Ukrainian government were working together to poison water in Donbas (Zoria).

The conflict in Ukraine is very important to American, NATO, and Russian security. Russia has been testing its limits by annexing Crimea in 2014 and then by participating in the Ukrainian conflict. With sanctions affecting the Russian economy, Russia is using different tools to circumnavigate the sanctions by using China. With Russian forces in Syria fighting extremists, and with Russian involvement in Ukraine, Russia is able to use these conflicts as leverage against the United States.

Mr. Putin would casually deny it, but Russia has fashioned the ongoing civil conflict in Eastern Ukraine in a manner that suits the Kremlin’s goals. The opening actions of the rebellion were pulled off without too many snags and managed to seize significant political and economic sites throughout the region, ranging from police stations to major railroad junctions. A growing amount of evidence suggests that these seemingly homegrown insurrections were originally led and coordinated by Russian operatives disguised as locals. Videos and eyewitness accounts show large convoys of vehicles packed with armed, uniformed men (many belonging to the Vostok Battalion, of Chechen War notoriety) streaming into Ukraine from over the Russian border. While this isn’t exactly hard evidence of the Kremlin’s direct involvement, it does speak volumes about what entities are fueling the current strife. Despite these occurrences, Putin does not seem interested in invading and annexing the eastern provinces of Ukraine in the same way that he did Crimea. This article discusses why Moscow does not want to absorb Eastern Ukraine, as well as what Russia’s true intensions are.