Taliban

One year ago, the United States ended its longest war in Afghanistan. It was the end because the US pulled all military (and many other) personnel from the country. Following the US action, the Taliban quickly took control of the country. The speed of this takeover was surprising to the world.

A hunger crisis now faces the people of Afghanistan, and the United States holds the key to a significant part of resource flow into the country. As the Taliban implement their authoritarian control of the country, human rights abuses have become more widespread and a hunger crisis risks putting millions into famine condition. The United States may be able to leverage access to much need food and medical supplies to ensure that the Taliban do not revert to their horrific rule of the 1990’s.

On September 5, 2019, a suicide car bombing ripped through downtown Kabul, Afghanistan, killing ten people, including a U.S. soldier. The Taliban claimed responsibility for this and another attack three days earlier that killed sixteen people just east of the capital city. In response, President Donald Trump publicly called off a secret meeting with Taliban officials scheduled for that weekend and declared that peace negotiations were “dead.” This breakdown in talks marks the ninth time that talks have been proposed and subsequently fallen apart since the start of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan in 2001.

Recent terror attacks have brought renewed scrutiny to a Pakistan-based Taliban branch. The group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for a roadside bomb blast in northwestern Pakistan in August that targeted members of a peace committee aiding the Pakistani government. It also claimed responsibility for an attack that killed one Pakistani soldier in the North Waziristan region, near the border with Afghanistan, in September.

Pakistan has been gambling for a long time with its use of militants as a strategic edge over India. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) created and utilized different groups that we generally label as “Taliban” in order to counter Indian power in the region. This has been a several decade-long endeavor but is now showing signs of failure as India is increasing its influence in Afghanistan. In this context, Indian-Pakistani relations will likely prove to be an even more critical national security issue as we scale back military efforts in the region.

Afghanistan will face two major issues this year. The more publicized issue is Pakistan’s refusal to open up their supply routes into Afghanistan for NATO use. The lesser known issue is the devastatingly poor poppy harvest. Both of these problems will create unique challenges for NATO forces. A brief examination of the problems will show points of concern that need to be addressed.

The endgame for the Taliban is relatively straightforward. They have two main objectives and are determined to meet them. Their two objectives are to get all foreign troops out of the country and to implement Sharia law throughout all of Afghanistan. They will continue to wage terror on US troops and the Afghan people until these objectives are met.