Pakistan

Recently, the tension in the region of Kashmir and Jammu has reached a turning point. The citizens are protesting more than ever before, especially with the termination of article 370. With the frequent acts of terror by the terrorist group Jaish-E-Mohammed (JeM), political strife, and increased instability within the region, it is likely that the area could be bracing for significant impact of change.

Recent terror attacks have brought renewed scrutiny to a Pakistan-based Taliban branch. The group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for a roadside bomb blast in northwestern Pakistan in August that targeted members of a peace committee aiding the Pakistani government. It also claimed responsibility for an attack that killed one Pakistani soldier in the North Waziristan region, near the border with Afghanistan, in September.

Pakistan has been gambling for a long time with its use of militants as a strategic edge over India. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) created and utilized different groups that we generally label as “Taliban” in order to counter Indian power in the region. This has been a several decade-long endeavor but is now showing signs of failure as India is increasing its influence in Afghanistan. In this context, Indian-Pakistani relations will likely prove to be an even more critical national security issue as we scale back military efforts in the region.

Afghanistan will face two major issues this year. The more publicized issue is Pakistan’s refusal to open up their supply routes into Afghanistan for NATO use. The lesser known issue is the devastatingly poor poppy harvest. Both of these problems will create unique challenges for NATO forces. A brief examination of the problems will show points of concern that need to be addressed.

To coincide with the anniversary of the raid that killed Osama bin laden, the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point released 17 de-classified documents obtained in bin Laden’s Abbattobad compound. These 17 documents are a small fraction of the thousands of documents recovered from the raid. Despite their small number, these documents add color to our understanding of al-Qaeda’s leadership; namely, the relationship that al-Qaeda leaders maintained with its affiliates was the subject of internal debate and scrutiny. The insights gained from these prior inner workings may offer a glimpse into understanding the current dynamics of al-Qaeda methodology

The attack in France this past week at the hands of the terrorist Mohammed Merah is reawakening Europe to the realities of radicalization. This event should not be viewed as the beginning of a complex new terror campaign domestically but should be seen as an infrequent reality of war with terror groups. The majority of attempted domestic attacks have been unsuccessful for a number of reasons, and most people who are successfully recruited end up going to conflict areas in order to train and act out their new sense of ideology rather than stay in their country. A quick overview of some aspects of the radicalization process will reveal that there is no trend towards coordinated attacks or rampant radicalization in the West.

This past week has seen Al-Qaeda rise after a period of weakening and transition. After losing a number of its leadership, most notably Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, it was thought that the organization would be further crippled until it could no longer operate effectively. However its recent actions in Iraq, Somalia, and possibly even Syria demonstrate that Al-Qaeda is transitioning itself to regain a foothold in the Middle East. At the same time, Iran has been penalized by the U.S. Treasury for its support of Al-Qaeda. Furthermore, a district court in 2011 found Iran guilty of being linked to the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania by Al-Qaeda. Although it has long been known that Iran is the largest state-backer of terrorism, this link to Al-Qaeda is especially important to understand the Iranian regime’s attempt to gain dominance in the Middle East.

Pakistan and India have been disputing over the Kashmir region since 1947. Currently India controls approximately 45% of the region, Pakistan controls some 35%, and China controls about 20% (Hunt). The main disputes and hot conflicts, however, have remained between India and Pakistan, with 3 wars and numerous conflicts since 1947. This conflict is often neglected when considering national security, but poses a potential serious issue to the US. The United States maintains bilateral relationships with both countries, and war between them could pose a diplomatic disaster.