Nuclear Weapons

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, the conflict has only escalated with thousands of lives being lost to the violence. The shock of this conflict has reverberated around the world, with many countries still unsure of the best course of action to take. One thing is for certain: as the war continues, the use of nuclear weaponry becomes a bigger possibility. As one of the only superpowers in the world, the United States is faced with their own security concerns about the continued conflict in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dragged on far beyond the timeline projected by political scientists, but it may be drawing to a close. What that end might be is yet to be seen, but there are fewer and fewer ways out of this conflict as Russia commits more and more resources and troops to the ‘special military exercise’ that has resulted in at least 10,000 casualties and many more missing, as well as over 10% of the population of Ukraine currently displaced. With American troops part of the forward placement on the East of the NATO Alliance and nuclear threats renewed, Putin may soon force American intervention.

Context

An August 8 nuclear accident in Nyonska, Russia is the result of Russia’s nuclear expansion, which Russia President Vladimir Putin officially announced in March 2018. This accident, along with the INF Treaty’s collapse in February 2019, show that the United States needs to examine its current nuclear policies and set new objectives to match the evolving global order. Its two objectives need to be global non-proliferation and improving security and prosperity across the globe.

A nuclear explosion rocked an offshore platform in the White Sea on August 8, killing five nuclear scientists and two Defense Ministry employees. The following weekend, the Kremlin only provided small details and contradictory information, an approach which added to the suspicion surrounding the incident. Finally, on August 12, Vyacheslav Solovyov, scientific director of the Russian Federal Nuclear Center revealed that these scientists were working on “small-sized energy sources using radioactive fissile materials” at the Nyonoksa military range (Smith). Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear agency, later divulged that the nuclear system included “isotope power sources within a liquid propulsion system” (Smith).

Amid the lack of discussion about the magnitude of nuclear bombs themselves, India has opted to diversify and improve its nuclear delivery systems. Last week, in accordance with that goal, India successfully launched the AGNI V, a missile with the capability to send a nuclear warhead nearly 5,000 kilometers, or about 3,100 miles. As a nuclear delivery system, the AGNI V does not represent an increase in the size of the nuclear weapons but an increase in nuclear reach. India aims to further enhance its nuclear power by developing a ‘nuclear triad‘ system that would enable India to deliver nuclear warheads from air, land, and sea locations.

According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, the White House and Pentagon are considering several plans to reduce its nuclear stockpile. The plans have not been presented to President Obama yet, but he will in the near future. The United States is currently under treaty obligations that require it to reduce the nuclear stockpile from the current 1,800 to 1,550 by 2018. However, the Obama administration is considering three plans to reduce this number further. The first plan calls for a moderate reduction in nuclear warheads which would leave between 1,000 and 1,100 intact. The second would reduce the number to around 700. The final, and most drastic, would reduce the U.S. nuclear stockpile to between 300 and 400 weapons.

Kim Jong-Un’s 2017 threat to “bring nuclear clouds to the Japanese archipelago”[1] shocked the world and forced Japan to recognize that their small, North Korean neighbor was a significant threat to the safety of their country, and they meant business. Though North Korean missile tests began as early as 1993, fears of an aggressive North Korea have only grown as they have advanced their military capabilities, even showing that they had the capability of striking as far as the United States in 2017. Recent tests in May of 2019 have shown that North Korea is not content with their arsenal and is willing to use force to achieve their goals. This is especially troubling for Japan, who is one of North Korea’s closest neighbors, and has little of its own military power. Their proximity and history of conflict and grievances puts a target on the back of the Japanese for North Korean aggression.

Prospects for continued peace talks in the near future are not promising given the abrupt ending and confusing aftermath of the February 27-28 Hanoi Summit. U.S. and DPRK blame each other for the premature conclusion but tell the same story: The U.S. walked out rather than accept a deal that gave sweeping sanctions relief for the dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor but, in Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s words, “still leaves missiles, still leaves warheads and weapons systems.” While it’s not the outcome world leaders were hoping for, it didn’t come as a surprise to US Intelligence officials who have dealt with North Korea’s unwillingness to give up their nuclear program in the past.