Libya

Libya’s parliamentary committee has postponed the long-awaited Libyan presidential elections. The elections were intended to take place on December 24th, 2021, but were postponed two days prior. A new election date has yet to be set. Entities both within and outside of Libya disagree about Libya’s priorities as it seeks to establish a stable democracy in the wake of two civil wars. This poses important implications for the United States as it tries to encourage democracy in Libya, establish a strategic and friendly partnership with oil-rich Libya, and predict who will come to power once elections are held.

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar began his military career by taking part in the 1969 coup that overthrew King Idris and established Muammar Qaddafi as the head of the Libyan state. Shortly thereafter, Haftar became Qaddafi’s chief of staff of the armed forces and was given control over Libya’s conflict with Chad.[1] Although loyal to Qaddafi, when Haftar and his men were captured as prisoners of war in Chad in 1987, Qaddafi repudiated him and demanded that Haftar’s soldiers be returned to Libya; however, the United States moved them to Zaire. Qaddafi’s disavowal angered Haftar and in 1988 he joined the C.I.A.-supported National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL) while in Chad.[2] When the NFSL was unable to overthrow Qaddafi, the United States flew Haftar and his men to Virginia, where Haftar lived for the next 20 years while gaining U.S. citizenship.[3]

In recent weeks, Mali, a democratic West African nation, experienced two events that threaten the stability of the country: a military coup and a rebellion that took over a significant portion of the country. Although this may not seem like such an abnormal event, given the seeming regularity of coups in Africa, it is in fact a sign of the changing nature of the war with al-Qaeda and its growing umbrella of affiliated groups. The terrorist organization may be weaker than it was a decade ago, but it is less centralized and is spreading into an increasing number of ungoverned areas. The problems in Mali represent the long term issues we may be facing in regards to al-Qaeda.

Recently there has been a deluge of calls for action to topple the Al-Assad regime in Syria in order to stop its bloody crackdown against the opposition movement. Many ideas have been thrown out into the open, the most prominent of which center around an air campaign, using a harsh set of sanctions against the regime, or arming the opposition with weapons capable of leveling the playing field. The loudest champions of these ideas by and large are generalizing the matter. Reducing the situation into black and white, election-friendly terms glosses over many of the grim realities in Syria. Looking at the main ideas listed above, we see that they are either unfeasible or the risks involved make them not only undesirable but also counterproductive.