Latin America

With the new year quickly approaching, it is almost time for Brazil’s president-elect Luiz Inacio da Silva to take office. In October 2022, president elect Luiz Inacio da Silva, popularly known as “Lula” was announced the winner of Brazil’s 2022 presidential elections. With his victory, there is much to consider for the direction of Brazil’s foreign and domestic policy, as well as what this election means for U.S. Foreign Policy.

In the first days of October, the Biden Administration completed the exchange of prisoners between the Venezuelan government and the United States consisting of seven US Citizens detained under Venezuelan federal laws and two Venezuelan citizens, nephews of the Venezuelan leader.

Various Latin American countries demonstrate a willingness to participate with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This willingness is concerning to the United States, as the BRI increases the ability of the Chinese government to project power onto the American continents. This article analyzes the options available to the United States and Western countries to counter the BRI in Latin America.

Moving forward, the United States may stabilize regional power in the American continent by removing a critical Russian ally, Venezuela. Nicolas Maduro, the controversial, authoritarian president of Venezuela, is backed by the Russian government and continues an anti-American narrative beneficial to Russian interests in the American hemisphere. If the United States can challenge the relationship between Russia and Venezuela by becoming Venezuela’s ally, the United States could directly contest Russian interests in the American hemisphere.

Background

A recent study of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict between 1987 and 2004 shows a reduction in the number of terrorist attacks following the enactment of humanitarian policies. The study provides some evidence to the argument that terror attacks can be reduced through “incentivizing peace rather than punishing violence.” These results were upheld by case studies of Turkey, Lebanon, Algeria, and Egypt–areas in which the goal of terrorist activity is mainly political: namely, the expulsion of a real or perceived foreign military and political presence from the region. While these peace-incentivizing policies may not directly impact those presently engaged in terrorist activity, strengthening the economic base may deter others being recruited into the organizations, thus reducing the number of terrorists and terror attacks.

During the middle of last month, Honduran and U.S. forces conducted a major drug bust that recovered a half-ton of cocaine in the river town of Ahuas. The morning following the raid, four homes were set ablaze by villagers retaliating against the people in their community who worked for the drug trafficking organizations (DTOs). These burning homes represent the unwelcome feelings for drug trafficking and the crime that comes with it. Additionally, the blaze represents a significant problem within Honduras and other countries along the drug trafficking routes: decreasing respect for and trust in the government’s ability to uphold the rule of law.

The year 2012 plays host to several important Presidential elections around the world: those in France, the first presidential elections in Egypt following the removal of Hosni Mubarak from power, and the elections in the United States with President Obama up for reelection in what seems to be an increasingly partisan climate. Another important presidential election this year is found in Latin America: specifically, the October contest between Hugo Chávez and Henrique Capriles in Venezuela.

Last month, Argentina and Great Britain commemorated the 30th anniversary of the Falkland Islands Conflict in which Argentina attempted to take possession of the island about 250 miles off its coast in the Atlantic Ocean. Argentina’s claims for the the Falklands, or the Islas Malvinas as the Argentines call them, go back into the 19th century despite British control of the islands since 1833 (with the exception of the short time Argentina “re-occupied” them before Britain forcibly removed Argentina’s forces from the islands weeks later). Although the Falkland Conflict reestablished British control of the islands, Argentina has continued to fight for them in other ways, such as including the territorial claim for the Malvinas in its reformed constitution in 1994.

In November of last year, the Republican presidential candidates were asked to speak about a national security issue that had not been receiving enough attention. In response, three of the candidates reported that radical Islamist groups, namely Hamas and Hezbollah, were operating in Latin America across the Mexican border, presenting an “imminent threat to the United States of America.” Many of these claims were drawn from a report published by the American Enterprise Institute released in October 2011. This report states that “Hezbollah is using the Western Hemisphere as a staging ground, fundraising center, and operational base to wage asymmetric warfare against the United States.”

On April 30th, skirmishes erupted in Venezuela between anti-government protests and law enforcement officers as Juan Guaidó called for the population to rise up against Nicolás Maduro. Since this incident, many analysts are attempting to establish the role played by General Manuel Ricardo Christopher Figuera, who was the acting head of Venezuela’s secret police. Figuera was known for many years as a “diehard Chavist loyalist.”[1] However, his name was mentioned in several local Venezuelan media reports as being a leader in the uprising. After the uprising, Figuera is credited to writing a letter on the afternoon of April 30th. This was quoted by Venezuelan news website Efecto Cocuyo, and began with Figuera’s allegiance to Maduro as his, “commander in chief”[2]. However, it later says that, “the state of disrepair in which the Fatherland is submerged is not a secret for anybody, and it would be irresponsible of me to blame only the North American empire [US]”[3]. This simultaneous approval of Maduro and disapproval of Maduro’s government has caused much consternation as to Figueras true allegiance.

Fighting Fernando Haddad for the Presidency, Jair Bolsonaro won the presidency of Brazil and has filled that office since January. His election surprised many Brazilians and outsiders. Judged as a homophobic, misogynist, and a no-nonsense speaker, he is strongly allied with President Trump on many issues (Carneiro, Julia; Fagundez, Ingrid. 2019). In recent years, Brazil has been suffering from major corruption problems in the government. Bolsonaro claims that he will fix these problems, and echoing Trump’s campaign slogan, Bolsonaro promises to make Brazil ‘great again’. Bolsonaro wants to put the ‘old’ Brazil behind him and build Brazil up into a powerful country. As Bolsonaro competes with China, moves its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and exits the Paris climate agreement, the government of Brazil will likely find favor with the White House, and economic and political ties will be greatly strengthened. Brazil will expectedly become a strong base for US foreign policy to proliferate throughout South America.

Economic and Political Ties Between Russia and Venezuela

The recent election in Venezuela has left the country in even more disarray than it was already in. President Nicolas Maduro was elected to serve a second six-year term as president. The people of Venezuela and many other countries have claimed that the election was a sham and unjust. The main opposition said it would refuse to run against Maduro because they knew the election would be staged. Stating that the government decided to move the election from its scheduled time in December, all the way to May so that they would have an advantage. The government saw it as an easy win in May because most of the oppositions political figures were banned from running for office, jailed, or had fled the country. Luckily for the government one opposer decided to run for the presidency, Henri Falcón. Making the election look like a far race, but right after the election Henri called it rigged an unfair. Because a starving country was promised food if it voted for Maduro. The elections had a 48% turnout at the polls. Which was down from the 80% at the previous 2013 election. Many experts are also saying that the 48% is inflated with the actual turnout being more around 30%. The Venezuelan CNE is supposed to govern the election independent of the government but four of its five seats are supposedly filled with Maduros puppets. With So many issues and red flags going on in a country in turmoil what are the implications of such events?