Jeff Bates

Australia has long since been a crucial ally with the United States. As a right-leaning politician, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is likely to uphold stability and economic prosperity in Australia. Morrison’s election was a surprise win in Australia as the country faces extreme drought and the destruction of it’s Great Barrier Reef due to climate change. Voters were expected to upset the status quo and seek reformations for these causes, however with Morrison’s win, issues like climate change are not likely to be a high priority.

In late April, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a meeting with leaders of countries involved with the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI. Included in the meeting were more than 1,500 delegates and 40 heads of state. Jinping promised another $440 billion to continue building infrastructure. As of now, 126 countries have endorsed the BRI, the most recent of them being Italy, an EU nation and member of the G7 (2019. The road ahead for China’s BRI partners; China’s Marshall Plan.).

The endgame for the Taliban is relatively straightforward. They have two main objectives and are determined to meet them. Their two objectives are to get all foreign troops out of the country and to implement Sharia law throughout all of Afghanistan. They will continue to wage terror on US troops and the Afghan people until these objectives are met.

The South China Sea dispute represents a crisis not only for the United States, but to many other countries in the region as well. Many countries are right in their desire to have a piece of the Sea since there is an abundance of oil, natural gas, and fishing resources. From a US perspective, the South China Sea dispute is of national importance. The US is allied with the Philippines (which make claim of parts of the Sea), keeping international shipping lanes open is of critical importance economically, and being able to maneuver militarily in the Sea is a priority.

There are a number of missile bases in North Korea that have not been located. Although there is a fair amount of knowledge available through open sources about North Korea’s weapons programs, it is rather difficult to detect missile bases that have not already been exposed (Davenport, Kelsey. 2019). It is estimated that there are 20 or more missile bases that are unregistered, with only 13 being discovered so far. This estimate was arrived at through interviewing North Korean defectors. It is imperative that these bases be located in case of further provocations.

Putin proved a major influencer in the US presidential election in 2016. Russian influence on the election first appeared four years before the actual election, when two Russians, working for the Internet Research Agency, acquired knowledge about US social media to help provide information to the Russian propaganda machine (Shane, Scott; Mazzetti, Mark. 2018). Additionally, his Russian spy agency, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) hacked the Democratic National Committee’s network to further reach his goal of getting Americans to vote for the candidate he wanted to see win.

Fighting Fernando Haddad for the Presidency, Jair Bolsonaro won the presidency of Brazil and has filled that office since January. His election surprised many Brazilians and outsiders. Judged as a homophobic, misogynist, and a no-nonsense speaker, he is strongly allied with President Trump on many issues (Carneiro, Julia; Fagundez, Ingrid. 2019). In recent years, Brazil has been suffering from major corruption problems in the government. Bolsonaro claims that he will fix these problems, and echoing Trump’s campaign slogan, Bolsonaro promises to make Brazil ‘great again’. Bolsonaro wants to put the ‘old’ Brazil behind him and build Brazil up into a powerful country. As Bolsonaro competes with China, moves its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and exits the Paris climate agreement, the government of Brazil will likely find favor with the White House, and economic and political ties will be greatly strengthened. Brazil will expectedly become a strong base for US foreign policy to proliferate throughout South America.

With the disruption that the Rohingya crisis has created, the Islamic State (IS) has taken advantage over the degraded situation and has been exploiting the crisis. In July of 2016, IS carried out an attack in the capital of Myanmar, Dhaka, in which twenty civilians, mostly foreigners, were killed (Bashar, 2017). Although counter-terrorism (CT) operations continue in Myanmar, IS and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) seem to be attracting more recruits. This is evident by the increasing amount of young men that go missing, which is likely a result of them joining extremist groups. With an increase in the ranks of extremist groups, attacks by IS, AQIS, and other extremist groups are imminent. AQIS itself has already carried out dozens of targeted killings in Myanmar. Additionally, according to a high value target (HVT) that was arrested, IS has sent at least two individuals to India to gain additional experience and knowledge of how to make improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

The conflict in Ukraine is very important to American, NATO, and Russian security. Russia has been testing its limits by annexing Crimea in 2014 and then by participating in the Ukrainian conflict. With sanctions affecting the Russian economy, Russia is using different tools to circumnavigate the sanctions by using China. With Russian forces in Syria fighting extremists, and with Russian involvement in Ukraine, Russia is able to use these conflicts as leverage against the United States.