ISIS

Summary

In the last few months, Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, has been rocked by a series of bombings. Although Bangladesh has struggled with terrorist attacks in recent decades, the pace at which they are happening seems to be more frequent. This report reviews ISIS’s history in Bangladesh and an analysis of what the Bangladeshi authorities can do about the situation.

See Part I Here

Image of the church that was bombed on Mindanao. (Holcombe, Madeline; Simonette, Virma. 2019).

With the disruption that the Rohingya crisis has created, the Islamic State (IS) has taken advantage over the degraded situation and has been exploiting the crisis. In July of 2016, IS carried out an attack in the capital of Myanmar, Dhaka, in which twenty civilians, mostly foreigners, were killed (Bashar, 2017). Although counter-terrorism (CT) operations continue in Myanmar, IS and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) seem to be attracting more recruits. This is evident by the increasing amount of young men that go missing, which is likely a result of them joining extremist groups. With an increase in the ranks of extremist groups, attacks by IS, AQIS, and other extremist groups are imminent. AQIS itself has already carried out dozens of targeted killings in Myanmar. Additionally, according to a high value target (HVT) that was arrested, IS has sent at least two individuals to India to gain additional experience and knowledge of how to make improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

Now that the possibility of a US missile strike in Syria has faded, US attention has been diverted to other matters in the Middle East, namely, negotiations with Iran. However, the diminished threat of intervention combined with a weak UN Security Council Resolution has led to a significant loss of US influence among the Syrian opposition. The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), one of two al-Qaeda branches operating in Syria, has capitalized on this influence vacuum by attempting to establish its dominance within rebel-held territory. In response to an ascendant ISIS and general frustration with US foreign policy, opposition fighting groups are beginning to form Islamic coalitions independent of the US-backed Syrian National Council. US policymakers will now have to deal with a stronger al-Qaeda presence and less capacity to bolster anti-regime forces.

The events in Syria in past weeks show that the civil war has transformed into a greater regional sectarian conflict. Because of the nuanced and complex nature of this conflict, a deeper look at many aspects is required for an adequate analysis. This analysis is the second of two parts. The first focused on al-Qaeda operations and Iranian influence in Syria; this second part focuses on the Balkanizing of the Syrian state, Kurdish autonomy, and the implications of potential US intervention in Syria after the large-scale use of chemical weapons.