India

The intelligence community warns the coronavirus pandemic damages the world in political, economic, and health aspects. Instability is worsening, and world powers seek advantage from the pandemic instead of cooperation. After assuming a premature victory over the coronavirus and lifting restrictions earlier this year, India experienced a deadly second wave of the virus starting in mid-March. As of September 24th, India has had over 33,500,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, with nearly 450,000 coronavirus-related deaths. Although India has now overcome this second wave thanks to the greater availability of vaccines and aid, only 16% of the Indian population is fully vaccinated as of September 23rd. In addition, the coronavirus has exacerbated pre-existing economic and political issues that could pose a graver threat to the Indian economy and democratic stability than the pandemic itself if the state cannot recover soon.

In 2020 and into early 2021, the military forces of the Republic of India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) clashed multiple times in hand-to-hand combat in northwest India along the nuclear-armed neighbors’ 3,500 kilometer-long disputed border—resulting in their deadliest skirmish in 45 years. Given the tension between these two global powers, the United States is seeking to strengthen defensive ties with the Republic of India to signal its commitment to defending the world’s largest democracy.

For decades, Northeastern India has faced relentless violence from rebel groups seeking autonomy from the Indian government. Militant groups started with India’s independence in 1947, when they felt like their voices weren’t heard by the government, “Militants in India’s northeast once enjoyed vast popular support since they, in their formative years, voiced genuine grievances of the people such as poor governance, alienation, lack of development and an apathetic attitude from the central government in New Delhi.” Now that they don’t have sway with the government, they make themselves heard through militant acts including bombings and shootings.

In late October, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Saudi Arabia to meet with King Salman to discuss oil investment between the two countries. Two important pacts were signed during this visit to encourage partnership and cooperation in setting up fuel reserves. The India-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council was formed to allow for India to “address its expectations and aspirations” (Pant). According to the Economic Times, “Saudi Arabia is India’s second biggest supplier of oil after Iraq. It is also now India’s fourth largest trading partner with bilateral trade at $27.48 billion in 2017-18 and Saudi investment of around $100 billion is in the pipeline in areas ranging from energy, refining, petrochemicals and infrastructure to agriculture, minerals and mining” (Contributors, 2019). These meetings between India and Saudi Arabia are setting the stage for the economy to grow and for closer ties between these two countries.

Russia has a long history of cooperation and coalescence with India. Within the last three years, there has been several developments between to the countries with the goal of creating economic and defensive growth. While relations between the two countries has not always been smooth, Russia still considers India one of its “top 5 friends” (Bagchi, Indrani and Tnn).

Pakistan has been gambling for a long time with its use of militants as a strategic edge over India. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) created and utilized different groups that we generally label as “Taliban” in order to counter Indian power in the region. This has been a several decade-long endeavor but is now showing signs of failure as India is increasing its influence in Afghanistan. In this context, Indian-Pakistani relations will likely prove to be an even more critical national security issue as we scale back military efforts in the region.

Amid the lack of discussion about the magnitude of nuclear bombs themselves, India has opted to diversify and improve its nuclear delivery systems. Last week, in accordance with that goal, India successfully launched the AGNI V, a missile with the capability to send a nuclear warhead nearly 5,000 kilometers, or about 3,100 miles. As a nuclear delivery system, the AGNI V does not represent an increase in the size of the nuclear weapons but an increase in nuclear reach. India aims to further enhance its nuclear power by developing a ‘nuclear triad‘ system that would enable India to deliver nuclear warheads from air, land, and sea locations.

Pakistan and India have been disputing over the Kashmir region since 1947. Currently India controls approximately 45% of the region, Pakistan controls some 35%, and China controls about 20% (Hunt). The main disputes and hot conflicts, however, have remained between India and Pakistan, with 3 wars and numerous conflicts since 1947. This conflict is often neglected when considering national security, but poses a potential serious issue to the US. The United States maintains bilateral relationships with both countries, and war between them could pose a diplomatic disaster.