China

The People’s Republic of China has been recruiting retired intelligence officers to leak classified information to the Chinese government. In just the latest part of uncovering this trend, the United States arrested Alexander Yuk Ching Ma, a former CIA officer, on August 14, 2020. In response to the incident, Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers commented, “The trail of Chinese espionage is long and, sadly, strewn with former American intelligence officers who betrayed their colleagues, their country and its liberal democratic values to support an authoritarian communist regime.” Chinese intelligence has been using a combination of traditional espionage techniques, artificial intelligence, and misinformation to achieve its recruiting and espionage goals. The Chinese government has had clear successes in hiring spies from within the United States, and if this trend continues, it will undermine American intelligence and national security aims.

In the past five years China has become increasingly aggressive about asserting their authority over greater and greater swathes of the South China Sea through the creation and militarization of artificial islands. One aspect of this expansion that has drawn considerable ire from the US is the movement and subsequent testing of anti-ship cruise missiles to advance positions in the South China Sea in July of 2019. This movement of missiles is the pinnacle of a vast effort by the Chinese to project power into the South China Sea and deter the powerful US presence in the region.

The coronavirus has caused widespread panic throughout the world and bears strong resemblance to the SARS outbreak of 2003. While the SARS virus caused an estimated $40 billion economic loss, the coronavirus has the potential to cause much more damage as China has become more integrated into the global economy (1). While China has enforced many policies in an attempt to curb the spread of the virus, the virus has caused extensive economic damage in China that will spread to the global economy.

DF-26’s Threat and Capabilities

ANALYSIS

Ever since the year 2000, economic trade between China and Australia has grown exponentially. David Chau from Australian Broadcasting Station reports, “In 2017-18, China was by far Australia’s largest trading partner, contributing $194.6 billion worth of imports and exports. This was more than the combined value of trade with Japan and the United States ($147.8 billion).”[1] Most of these economic ties were forged within just the last ten years.[2] For a time, it seemed like Sino–Australian relations could not get any better. However, since 2017, Sino–Australian relations have shown significant signs of decline. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute even stated, “A new cold war with China is playing out in all but name.”[3]

The former president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, died at 95 on September 6, 2019 in Singapore, after receiving medical treatment there.[1] Mugabe began his political career as Prime Minister in 1980; however, when Zimbabwe’s parliament amended the constitution in 1987, Mugabe was declared the executive President. This new position allowed Mugabe to dissolve parliament, declare martial law, and run for an unlimited number of terms.[2] During his time as President, Mugabe was a controversial figure. His early work focused on liberating Zimbabwe from British colonialism, imperialism, and white minority rule. He was praised as a revolutionary in the struggle for African freedom from Western powers. Two years after he assumed the presidency, the economy sustained limited growth and Mugabe implemented new clinics and schools for the disenfranchised black population.[3] However, resentment toward him and his administration grew as he began to seize land from the white population without compensation, and he refused to amend the one-party constitution. Mugabe’s government officials awarded themselves pay raises while the country’s inflation continued to soar.[4] In 2008, Mugabe lost the presidential election to the leader of the opposition party, Morgan Tsvangirai; however, Mugabe refused to cede power and demanded a re-election. In the interim, Mugabe had the opposition supporters attacked and killed, until Tsvangirai withdrew from the race. This violent repression of his political opponents led many critics to labelling him a dictator.[5]

Following the US global ban on Chinese tech-company Huawei, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad came out stating that Malaysia would continue to roll out the company’s 5G cellular expansion. Additionally, China is investing heavily into Malaysia’s infrastructure with their Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI is a global development strategy of China consisting of infrastructure development and heavy investments with 152 nations. The month following the 5G announcement, Malaysia accepted 12 surveillance drones from the US. Malaysia is hedging their options by attempting to continue their monetary access to Chinese investments while staying under the US security umbrella. Following talks with ASEAN last week, it is clear that China and the US want to flex their influence in Malaysia.

Since the formation of the Chinese Communist party, the world has watched China evolve into the world power it is today. While it is clearly evident that China is continually increasing its soft power around the world, it is less evident that China is in the midst of serious economic woes. Many of China’s efforts to expand its soft power focus on utilizing its comparative economic might, others, however, focus on expanding China’s culture. Through its acclaimed Confucian Institutes, China is planting footholds throughout Africa. These footholds increase awareness and notoriety for China throughout the entire continent. In addition, China is pouring capital into Africa, Iceland, and the United States. These foreign investments indicate a weakening homeland where Chinese billionaires do not want to store their capital. China is playing a deceiving game of economic protectionism masked by a rise in soft power. Given China’s current track, competing world powers need not fear China’s total economic dominance.

The Chinese government’s understanding of human rights is fundamentally different from that widely held by much of the West. Additionally, many human rights lawyers oppose the Chinese government’s views and practices. This dissonance poses a threat to the stability of the region, especially considering China’s common historical cycle of oppression, protest and revolution. While potential protests may indeed bring about change, possibly even a positive one, instability is a probable byproduct, as seen in China’s own revolutionary past. However, change will come slowly in the People’s Republic of China until the majority of its population is aware of the ruling party’s human rights violations. There are several groups fighting for this change and as a result, China is seeing new laws that can improve the human rights situation. A special group of lawyers, called human rights lawyers seek to enforce these laws within the government. While it may be an uphill battle, human rights lawyers need to continue to pressure the government within their rights, and they will need support from the international community. Stability in China is of top priority for U.S. national security. A new level of chaos in the region could translate to a decline in the Chinese economy, which is so vital to the world market, in particular the U.S. economy.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and North Korea have a complicated relationship built on similar ideology and mutual economic gain. In fact, Support began in the Korean war in the 50’s when china obviously supported other communist regimes. In 1961, the two countries signed the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty, whereby China pledged to immediately render military and other assistance by all means to its ally against any outside attack. This treaty was prolonged twice, in 1981 and 2001, with a validity till 2021. The PRC in recent years has been the most powerful ally of the small pariah state. From this relationship, the PRC fills its need for raw materials, and its need for regional power. North Korea obviously stands to gain from having a large friend in the region, in addition to receiving its largest supply of food, arms, and fuel. However, China’s stance on UN sanctions against N Korea indicates that raw goods and ideology are not sufficient leverage for N Korea to hold so powerful an ally.

China stands as a rising global power in an increasingly interconnected world. Therefore, the United States must adopt a foreign policy that maintains stability in East Asia. However, relations between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the US have undergone many changes in recent years, some for the worse. The most striking point in PRC-US relations is the fact that China views the independence of Taiwan as the continuation of civil war. Understandably, US support of Taiwan only furthers the tension within the region. Consequently, US-Taiwan relations are an ever-changing aspect of US foreign policy that attempts to balance its delicate relationship and maintain peace in the region.

On October 25, 2012, The New York Times published an eye-opening report on an extensive, billion-dollar business empire constructed by relatives of China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao. Three months later, the Times revealed it had been undergoing intense cyber attacks even before the report was publicly released. Cooperating with AT&T, the FBI, and a leading cybersecurity firm, the Times pinned the digital break-ins on Chinese hackers, adding that the Chinese military was likely involved.

One of the biggest recent news stories in the East Asian Region is the continuing territorial dispute between China and Japan. The two world superpowers have been involved in the dispute for longer than either would care to admit, given the nature of the islands themselves. The islands, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, consist largely of nothing but jagged rock faces, overgrown shrubs, and wild birds. Despite this fact, the dispute has flared recently, even causing the Chinese to cancel plans for an event that was supposed to mark 40 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Pakistan has been gambling for a long time with its use of militants as a strategic edge over India. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) created and utilized different groups that we generally label as “Taliban” in order to counter Indian power in the region. This has been a several decade-long endeavor but is now showing signs of failure as India is increasing its influence in Afghanistan. In this context, Indian-Pakistani relations will likely prove to be an even more critical national security issue as we scale back military efforts in the region.

Over the past few months, China and the Philippines have been in a tense maritime quarrel over a controversial piece of land known as the Scarborough Shoal. The shoal is located just 124 nautical miles off the coast of the Philippines’ largest island, Luzon. Despite the shoal lying within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone, China asserts claims that the shoal has been mapped as Chinese territory for centuries. The results of this stand-off could have significant implications for the United States.

Amid the lack of discussion about the magnitude of nuclear bombs themselves, India has opted to diversify and improve its nuclear delivery systems. Last week, in accordance with that goal, India successfully launched the AGNI V, a missile with the capability to send a nuclear warhead nearly 5,000 kilometers, or about 3,100 miles. As a nuclear delivery system, the AGNI V does not represent an increase in the size of the nuclear weapons but an increase in nuclear reach. India aims to further enhance its nuclear power by developing a ‘nuclear triad‘ system that would enable India to deliver nuclear warheads from air, land, and sea locations.

What are the implications of the current “trade war” between the United States and China? Where will the continuing negotiations lead each of these countries in their development, and relationships with one another as the top two-producing countries in the world?