Europe

Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump shook hands briefly at the centennial World War I commemoration in Paris on November 12, 2018. They had a short discussion about Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea (“Putin says had…”). Though the leaders planned a meeting, they ultimately postponed the meeting until the Buenos Aries G20 summit on the weekend of November 30 (Jackson). Trump said he wants to discuss Russian collaboration in Syria and denuclearizing North Korea. Putin wants to discuss the recent U.S. pull out from 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and “the future of the 2011 New START arms-reduction agreement” (Jackson, “Putin: Arms control…”).

On October 28, 2018, the Republic of Georgia held the first round of its final presidential election with a direct vote before transitioning to a parliamentary system. The election turned into a run-off between Salome Zurabishvili, ruling Georgian Dream party candidate, and Grigol Vashadze, candidate of former Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili’s party United National movement, each garnering 38.6 percent and 37.7 percent of the vote (De Waal). French-born Zurabishvili served as Saakashvili’s foreign minister in 2004 before joining an opposing party. She has driven away voters by making comments intolerant of ethnic minorities. Most likely, opposition candidate Vashadze will win as he gathers votes from smaller parties dissenting the Georgian Dream party. These dissent votes suggest “opposition consolidation for the 2020 parliamentary elections” will reshape the future political landscape (“Presidentials: Expert Assessments in Tbilisi”).

In December 1987, U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev signed the U.S.-Russian Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The treaty “prohibited the United States and the Soviet Union from possessing, testing and deploying ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles of ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers” and required both countries to destroy a specified number of nuclear missiles (Cameron). In July 2014, U.S. State Department reported Russia violated the treaty. In February 2017, the United States accused Russia of deploying a nuclear system, a further treaty violation, and attempted to coerce Russia into compliance with sanctions.

On October 20, 2018, Macedonia (the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia or FYROM) moved a step closer to joining NATO after two-thirds of its parliament approved a name change for the country–from Republic of Macedonia to North Macedonia. Macedonia is moving to change its name to North Macedonia to resolve a 27 year dispute with Greece. In September, over 90% of voters approved the name change, but boycott efforts led to less than a 50% voter turnout, passing the issue to Macedonia’s parliament. Despite parliament’s approval, the name change is still subject to future votes and Greece’s ratification.

The United States has implemented two major policies to aid Ukraine’s defense against Russian invasion: sanctions and military support. In September 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to “ensure the full implementation” of U.S. sanctions against Russia (“Trump strengthens sanctions…”). Since 2014, the United States has used sanctions to combat Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. The idea behind sanctions is that the measures will weaken Russia’s ability to fund its Ukraine military effort, and this weakness will eventually force Russia to withdraw from the conflict. For military support, in September 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump approved $250 million to support Ukraine in military exercises, the provision of military equipment, lethal weapons and logistics support… the replacement of previously provided weapons or military goods… [and] reconnaissance support of Ukraine’s armed security forces” (“Trump signs Pentagon’s…”).

On March 17, 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea. During the Russian invasion, local residents noted the presence of troops wearing unmarked green uniforms. These troops’ unclear origins and uniform color earned them the moniker “little green men.” Eventually their weapons revealed their Russian origins, which Putin confirmed in April 2014 (Pifer 2014). Russia supported a fraudulent election in Crimea to annex the territory (Adesnik 2014).

Mr. Putin would casually deny it, but Russia has fashioned the ongoing civil conflict in Eastern Ukraine in a manner that suits the Kremlin’s goals. The opening actions of the rebellion were pulled off without too many snags and managed to seize significant political and economic sites throughout the region, ranging from police stations to major railroad junctions. A growing amount of evidence suggests that these seemingly homegrown insurrections were originally led and coordinated by Russian operatives disguised as locals. Videos and eyewitness accounts show large convoys of vehicles packed with armed, uniformed men (many belonging to the Vostok Battalion, of Chechen War notoriety) streaming into Ukraine from over the Russian border. While this isn’t exactly hard evidence of the Kremlin’s direct involvement, it does speak volumes about what entities are fueling the current strife. Despite these occurrences, Putin does not seem interested in invading and annexing the eastern provinces of Ukraine in the same way that he did Crimea. This article discusses why Moscow does not want to absorb Eastern Ukraine, as well as what Russia’s true intensions are.

America’s cyber security situation is in disarray. Ironically, the most technologically advanced country in the world is struggling mightily to protect itself and its interests in the digital domain. Recent events show that the pervasiveness and complexity of cyber threats are growing. At the same time, American cyber security efforts have been severely restricted by domestic and foreign political pressures. These pressures have left the United States more vulnerable to cyber attacks. If these trends continue, America will face increasingly serious threats from state actors and even more serious threats from non-state actors like terrorists.