Analysis Reports

With the disruption that the Rohingya crisis has created, the Islamic State (IS) has taken advantage over the degraded situation and has been exploiting the crisis. In July of 2016, IS carried out an attack in the capital of Myanmar, Dhaka, in which twenty civilians, mostly foreigners, were killed (Bashar, 2017). Although counter-terrorism (CT) operations continue in Myanmar, IS and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) seem to be attracting more recruits. This is evident by the increasing amount of young men that go missing, which is likely a result of them joining extremist groups. With an increase in the ranks of extremist groups, attacks by IS, AQIS, and other extremist groups are imminent. AQIS itself has already carried out dozens of targeted killings in Myanmar. Additionally, according to a high value target (HVT) that was arrested, IS has sent at least two individuals to India to gain additional experience and knowledge of how to make improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

The conflict in Ukraine is very important to American, NATO, and Russian security. Russia has been testing its limits by annexing Crimea in 2014 and then by participating in the Ukrainian conflict. With sanctions affecting the Russian economy, Russia is using different tools to circumnavigate the sanctions by using China. With Russian forces in Syria fighting extremists, and with Russian involvement in Ukraine, Russia is able to use these conflicts as leverage against the United States.

The recent election in Venezuela has left the country in even more disarray than it was already in. President Nicolas Maduro was elected to serve a second six-year term as president. The people of Venezuela and many other countries have claimed that the election was a sham and unjust. The main opposition said it would refuse to run against Maduro because they knew the election would be staged. Stating that the government decided to move the election from its scheduled time in December, all the way to May so that they would have an advantage. The government saw it as an easy win in May because most of the oppositions political figures were banned from running for office, jailed, or had fled the country. Luckily for the government one opposer decided to run for the presidency, Henri Falcón. Making the election look like a far race, but right after the election Henri called it rigged an unfair. Because a starving country was promised food if it voted for Maduro. The elections had a 48% turnout at the polls. Which was down from the 80% at the previous 2013 election. Many experts are also saying that the 48% is inflated with the actual turnout being more around 30%. The Venezuelan CNE is supposed to govern the election independent of the government but four of its five seats are supposedly filled with Maduros puppets. With So many issues and red flags going on in a country in turmoil what are the implications of such events?

Pakistan and India have been disputing over the Kashmir region since 1947. Currently India controls approximately 45% of the region, Pakistan controls some 35%, and China controls about 20% (Hunt). The main disputes and hot conflicts, however, have remained between India and Pakistan, with 3 wars and numerous conflicts since 1947. This conflict is often neglected when considering national security, but poses a potential serious issue to the US. The United States maintains bilateral relationships with both countries, and war between them could pose a diplomatic disaster.

The United States has implemented two major policies to aid Ukraine’s defense against Russian invasion: sanctions and military support. In September 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to “ensure the full implementation” of U.S. sanctions against Russia (“Trump strengthens sanctions…”). Since 2014, the United States has used sanctions to combat Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. The idea behind sanctions is that the measures will weaken Russia’s ability to fund its Ukraine military effort, and this weakness will eventually force Russia to withdraw from the conflict. For military support, in September 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump approved $250 million to support Ukraine in military exercises, the provision of military equipment, lethal weapons and logistics support… the replacement of previously provided weapons or military goods… [and] reconnaissance support of Ukraine’s armed security forces” (“Trump signs Pentagon’s…”).

Recent events in Egypt highlight the need for increased attention on the flourishing (floundering?) Arab Spring. For where viable opportunities for democratic governance once flourished, an age old balance between religion and secularism is threatening the fragile democratic processes and institutions of these newly democratic nations. The U.S. can work with the current situation in order to help both our international image, as well as the struggling Arab states.